Production behavior and prices of beef cattle in the Brazilian Amazon

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Santos, Marcos Antônio Souza dos
Data de Publicação: 2019
Outros Autores: Lourenço Júnior, José de Brito, Santana, Antônio Cordeiro de, Homma, Alfredo Kingo Oyama, Martins, Cyntia Mereiles, Rebello, Fabrício Khoury, Soares, Bruno Cabral, Silva, André Guimarães Maciel e
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Semina. Ciências Agrárias (Online)
Texto Completo: https://ojs.uel.br/revistas/uel/index.php/semagrarias/article/view/34144
Resumo: This study evaluates the production behavior and prices in the beef cattle industry in the Brazilian Amazon. We used time series data obtained from various sources and employed multiple regression and polynomial regression analysis. For the price analysis, we used the classical time series model and separated the seasonal and cyclic indices based on the 12-month centered moving average. The analyses covered the period from 1990 to 2015, when the regional cattle population grew at a rate of 5% per year, compared to the national growth rate of 1.7%. The price analysis reveals the existence of cycles in regional cattle ranching, defined mainly by an inverse correlation between the price of fattened cattle and the slaughter of matrices. As for the variables determining the growth of the cattle population, we find that rural credit policy assumes an important role in enabling the supply of resources for financing livestock projects that are more popular than investments in agriculture. The creation and structuring of state agricultural defense agencies in the late 1990s represents an important measure in the institutional sphere, as the implementation of animal health policies and programs has generated a favorable environment for the expansion of investments in meat production and processing, in addition to opening up opportunities for trade in the domestic and international markets.
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spelling Production behavior and prices of beef cattle in the Brazilian AmazonComportamento da produção e dos preços de bovinos de corte na Amazônia BrasileiraAmazonPrice analysisBeef cattle ranchingRural creditMarket.AmazôniaAnálise de preçosBovinocultura de corteCrédito ruralMercado.This study evaluates the production behavior and prices in the beef cattle industry in the Brazilian Amazon. We used time series data obtained from various sources and employed multiple regression and polynomial regression analysis. For the price analysis, we used the classical time series model and separated the seasonal and cyclic indices based on the 12-month centered moving average. The analyses covered the period from 1990 to 2015, when the regional cattle population grew at a rate of 5% per year, compared to the national growth rate of 1.7%. The price analysis reveals the existence of cycles in regional cattle ranching, defined mainly by an inverse correlation between the price of fattened cattle and the slaughter of matrices. As for the variables determining the growth of the cattle population, we find that rural credit policy assumes an important role in enabling the supply of resources for financing livestock projects that are more popular than investments in agriculture. The creation and structuring of state agricultural defense agencies in the late 1990s represents an important measure in the institutional sphere, as the implementation of animal health policies and programs has generated a favorable environment for the expansion of investments in meat production and processing, in addition to opening up opportunities for trade in the domestic and international markets.O artigo avalia o comportamento da produção e dos preços no mercado da pecuária de corte da Amazônia brasileira. Utilizaram-se dados de séries temporais obtidos em diversas fontes e submetidos às análises de regressão múltipla e regressão polinomial. Para a análise de preços utilizou-se o modelo clássico de séries temporais com a separação dos índices sazonais e cíclicos com base na média móvel centrada em doze meses. As análises abrangem o período de 1990 a 2015, fase em que o rebanho bovino regional evoluiu a uma taxa de 5% ao ano, frente a um crescimento de 1,7% do rebanho nacional. A análise de preços revelou a existência de ciclos na pecuária bovina regional, definidos, principalmente, pela correlação inversa entre o preço do boi gordo e o abate de matrizes. Quanto às análises das variáveis determinantes do crescimento da produção, configurado na expansão do rebanho, constatou-se que a política de crédito rural assumiu papel importante ao viabilizar a oferta de recursos para o financiamento de projetos pecuários que ganharam espaço frente aos investimentos em agricultura. A criação e estruturação das agências estaduais de defesa agropecuária, a partir do final da década de 1990, representou avanço importante na esfera institucional, pois ao executarem as políticas e programas de sanidade animal tem gerado um ambiente favorável para a expansão dos investimentos na produção e processamento, além de abrir oportunidades para comercialização no mercado interno, nacional e internacional.UEL2019-06-07info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionMétodos e Modelos Matemáticos, Econométricos e Estatísticosapplication/pdfhttps://ojs.uel.br/revistas/uel/index.php/semagrarias/article/view/3414410.5433/1679-0359.2019v40n4p1639Semina: Ciências Agrárias; Vol. 40 No. 4 (2019); 1639-1652Semina: Ciências Agrárias; v. 40 n. 4 (2019); 1639-16521679-03591676-546Xreponame:Semina. Ciências Agrárias (Online)instname:Universidade Estadual de Londrina (UEL)instacron:UELenghttps://ojs.uel.br/revistas/uel/index.php/semagrarias/article/view/34144/25466Copyright (c) 2019 Semina: Ciências Agráriashttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSantos, Marcos Antônio Souza dosLourenço Júnior, José de BritoSantana, Antônio Cordeiro deHomma, Alfredo Kingo OyamaMartins, Cyntia MereilesRebello, Fabrício KhourySoares, Bruno CabralSilva, André Guimarães Maciel e2022-10-19T12:53:07Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/34144Revistahttp://www.uel.br/revistas/uel/index.php/semagrariasPUBhttps://ojs.uel.br/revistas/uel/index.php/semagrarias/oaisemina.agrarias@uel.br1679-03591676-546Xopendoar:2022-10-19T12:53:07Semina. Ciências Agrárias (Online) - Universidade Estadual de Londrina (UEL)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Production behavior and prices of beef cattle in the Brazilian Amazon
Comportamento da produção e dos preços de bovinos de corte na Amazônia Brasileira
title Production behavior and prices of beef cattle in the Brazilian Amazon
spellingShingle Production behavior and prices of beef cattle in the Brazilian Amazon
Santos, Marcos Antônio Souza dos
Amazon
Price analysis
Beef cattle ranching
Rural credit
Market.
Amazônia
Análise de preços
Bovinocultura de corte
Crédito rural
Mercado.
title_short Production behavior and prices of beef cattle in the Brazilian Amazon
title_full Production behavior and prices of beef cattle in the Brazilian Amazon
title_fullStr Production behavior and prices of beef cattle in the Brazilian Amazon
title_full_unstemmed Production behavior and prices of beef cattle in the Brazilian Amazon
title_sort Production behavior and prices of beef cattle in the Brazilian Amazon
author Santos, Marcos Antônio Souza dos
author_facet Santos, Marcos Antônio Souza dos
Lourenço Júnior, José de Brito
Santana, Antônio Cordeiro de
Homma, Alfredo Kingo Oyama
Martins, Cyntia Mereiles
Rebello, Fabrício Khoury
Soares, Bruno Cabral
Silva, André Guimarães Maciel e
author_role author
author2 Lourenço Júnior, José de Brito
Santana, Antônio Cordeiro de
Homma, Alfredo Kingo Oyama
Martins, Cyntia Mereiles
Rebello, Fabrício Khoury
Soares, Bruno Cabral
Silva, André Guimarães Maciel e
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Santos, Marcos Antônio Souza dos
Lourenço Júnior, José de Brito
Santana, Antônio Cordeiro de
Homma, Alfredo Kingo Oyama
Martins, Cyntia Mereiles
Rebello, Fabrício Khoury
Soares, Bruno Cabral
Silva, André Guimarães Maciel e
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Amazon
Price analysis
Beef cattle ranching
Rural credit
Market.
Amazônia
Análise de preços
Bovinocultura de corte
Crédito rural
Mercado.
topic Amazon
Price analysis
Beef cattle ranching
Rural credit
Market.
Amazônia
Análise de preços
Bovinocultura de corte
Crédito rural
Mercado.
description This study evaluates the production behavior and prices in the beef cattle industry in the Brazilian Amazon. We used time series data obtained from various sources and employed multiple regression and polynomial regression analysis. For the price analysis, we used the classical time series model and separated the seasonal and cyclic indices based on the 12-month centered moving average. The analyses covered the period from 1990 to 2015, when the regional cattle population grew at a rate of 5% per year, compared to the national growth rate of 1.7%. The price analysis reveals the existence of cycles in regional cattle ranching, defined mainly by an inverse correlation between the price of fattened cattle and the slaughter of matrices. As for the variables determining the growth of the cattle population, we find that rural credit policy assumes an important role in enabling the supply of resources for financing livestock projects that are more popular than investments in agriculture. The creation and structuring of state agricultural defense agencies in the late 1990s represents an important measure in the institutional sphere, as the implementation of animal health policies and programs has generated a favorable environment for the expansion of investments in meat production and processing, in addition to opening up opportunities for trade in the domestic and international markets.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019-06-07
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Métodos e Modelos Matemáticos, Econométricos e Estatísticos
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://ojs.uel.br/revistas/uel/index.php/semagrarias/article/view/34144
10.5433/1679-0359.2019v40n4p1639
url https://ojs.uel.br/revistas/uel/index.php/semagrarias/article/view/34144
identifier_str_mv 10.5433/1679-0359.2019v40n4p1639
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://ojs.uel.br/revistas/uel/index.php/semagrarias/article/view/34144/25466
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2019 Semina: Ciências Agrárias
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2019 Semina: Ciências Agrárias
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv UEL
publisher.none.fl_str_mv UEL
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Semina: Ciências Agrárias; Vol. 40 No. 4 (2019); 1639-1652
Semina: Ciências Agrárias; v. 40 n. 4 (2019); 1639-1652
1679-0359
1676-546X
reponame:Semina. Ciências Agrárias (Online)
instname:Universidade Estadual de Londrina (UEL)
instacron:UEL
instname_str Universidade Estadual de Londrina (UEL)
instacron_str UEL
institution UEL
reponame_str Semina. Ciências Agrárias (Online)
collection Semina. Ciências Agrárias (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Semina. Ciências Agrárias (Online) - Universidade Estadual de Londrina (UEL)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv semina.agrarias@uel.br
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