Fragilidade financeira e vulnerabilidade externa na economia brasileira (1990-2013)
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2014 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da Universidade Estadual de Maringá (RI-UEM) |
Texto Completo: | http://repositorio.uem.br:8080/jspui/handle/1/3464 |
Resumo: | The main objective in this work is to examine the evolution of financial fragility and external vulnerability of the Brazilian economy from 1990s, i.e., from the country's deepening integration processes and financial liberalization. The central concern that motivates and justifies the study is that the way a country inserts itself internationally has different implications in terms of funding and dependence on foreign capital, and the ability to deal with external shocks or destabilizing factors, and, therefore, assumes a key role in the path of long-term growth of the economy. To cover the proposed objective, the study is divided into two interdependent essays. In the Essay 1, a literature review was conducted with regard to external financial fragility, taking as the starting point the financial instability hypothesis of Hyman Minsky. Afterwards, the index of external financial fragility (EFI) developed by Paula and Alves Junior (1999) is applied, in addition to a supplementary indicator, which served as the basis for the analysis. It was verified that the indicators of financial fragility reflected significantly the volatility and irregularity of foreign capital flows, even during periods of abundant international liquidity, demonstrating the financially unstable character of globalized economies. They also underlined the importance of foreign direct investment and long-term financing to reduce this fragility, and, especially, the necessity of a large volume of international reserves as an expansion of safety margins policy. The Essay 2 performed an analysis of the Brazilian external vulnerability in the referred period, focusing its structural character, through the examination of real-productive, technological, commercial and monetary-financial spheres, and a comparison of some newly industrialized countries (NICs), from structural external vulnerability index (EVI) proposed by Gonçalves (2005). Regarding the results, it became evident that the recurrent stocks and flows imbalances related to the international economic relations of the country indicate a high structural external vulnerability of the Brazilian economy. Furthermore, the international comparative analysis revealed that in the covered period, Brazil had the highest IVE between the economies of the group, while economies characterized by a more active and prudent insertion in the global market had the lowest rates. Finally, it can be concluded that the reduction of structural external vulnerability requires the capability of the Brazilian economy to rebalance its current account, making it less dependent on the financial account surpluses, i.e., less dependent on international liquidity cycles. Nevertheless, without the rescue of a development policy that promotes changes in the production structure, and produce reflexes on Brazilian exports, the only way to expand trade surpluses is the continued expansion of prices and international demand for primary and natural-resource intensive goods. |
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Fragilidade financeira e vulnerabilidade externa na economia brasileira (1990-2013)Fragilidade financeiraEconomia brasileiraVulnerabilidade externaEconomiaFragilidadeVulnerabilidadeBrasil.Financial fragilityExternal vulnerabilityBrazilian economy.Brazil.Ciências Sociais AplicadasEconomiaThe main objective in this work is to examine the evolution of financial fragility and external vulnerability of the Brazilian economy from 1990s, i.e., from the country's deepening integration processes and financial liberalization. The central concern that motivates and justifies the study is that the way a country inserts itself internationally has different implications in terms of funding and dependence on foreign capital, and the ability to deal with external shocks or destabilizing factors, and, therefore, assumes a key role in the path of long-term growth of the economy. To cover the proposed objective, the study is divided into two interdependent essays. In the Essay 1, a literature review was conducted with regard to external financial fragility, taking as the starting point the financial instability hypothesis of Hyman Minsky. Afterwards, the index of external financial fragility (EFI) developed by Paula and Alves Junior (1999) is applied, in addition to a supplementary indicator, which served as the basis for the analysis. It was verified that the indicators of financial fragility reflected significantly the volatility and irregularity of foreign capital flows, even during periods of abundant international liquidity, demonstrating the financially unstable character of globalized economies. They also underlined the importance of foreign direct investment and long-term financing to reduce this fragility, and, especially, the necessity of a large volume of international reserves as an expansion of safety margins policy. The Essay 2 performed an analysis of the Brazilian external vulnerability in the referred period, focusing its structural character, through the examination of real-productive, technological, commercial and monetary-financial spheres, and a comparison of some newly industrialized countries (NICs), from structural external vulnerability index (EVI) proposed by Gonçalves (2005). Regarding the results, it became evident that the recurrent stocks and flows imbalances related to the international economic relations of the country indicate a high structural external vulnerability of the Brazilian economy. Furthermore, the international comparative analysis revealed that in the covered period, Brazil had the highest IVE between the economies of the group, while economies characterized by a more active and prudent insertion in the global market had the lowest rates. Finally, it can be concluded that the reduction of structural external vulnerability requires the capability of the Brazilian economy to rebalance its current account, making it less dependent on the financial account surpluses, i.e., less dependent on international liquidity cycles. Nevertheless, without the rescue of a development policy that promotes changes in the production structure, and produce reflexes on Brazilian exports, the only way to expand trade surpluses is the continued expansion of prices and international demand for primary and natural-resource intensive goods.O objetivo neste trabalho é examinar a evolução da fragilidade financeira e da vulnerabilidade externa da economia brasileira a partir de 1990, isto é, a partir do aprofundamento dos processos de integração e liberalização financeira do país. A preocupação central que motiva e justifica o estudo é que a forma com que um país se insere internacionalmente tem diferentes implicações em termos de financiamento e dependência do capital estrangeiro, e da capacidade de enfrentamento de choques ou fatores desestabilizadores externos e, portanto, assume papel fundamental na trajetória de crescimento de longo prazo da economia. Para contemplar o objetivo proposto, o estudo divide-se em dois ensaios interdependentes. No Ensaio 1, realizou-se uma revisão da literatura no tocante à fragilidade financeira externa, tendo como ponto de partida a hipótese de instabilidade financeira de Hyman Minsky. Na sequência, foi aplicado o índice de fragilidade financeira externa (IFE) desenvolvido por Paula e Alves Junior (1999), além de um indicador complementar, que serviram de base para a análise. Constatou-se que os indicadores de fragilidade financeira refletiram bem a volatilidade e irregularidade dos fluxos estrangeiros de capitais, mesmo nos períodos de abundante liquidez internacional, demonstrando o caráter financeiramente instável das economias globalizadas. Ainda, sublinharam a importância dos investimentos estrangeiros diretos e financiamentos de longo prazo para o arrefecimento dessa fragilidade, e, principalmente, a necessidade de um volume elevado de reservas internacionais como política de ampliação das margens de segurança. O Ensaio 2 dedicou-se a análise da vulnerabilidade externa brasileira no período mencionado, com enfoque ao seu caráter estrutural, por meio do exame das esferas produtivo-real, tecnológica, comercial e monetário-financeira, e de uma comparação entre alguns países recentemente industrializados (NICs), a partir do índice de vulnerabilidade externa estrutural (IVE) proposto por Gonçalves (2005). Nesse ensaio, evidenciou-se que os recorrentes desequilíbrios de fluxos e estoques referentes às relações econômicas internacionais do país apontam uma elevada vulnerabilidade externa estrutural da economia brasileira. Ademais, a análise comparativa internacional revelou que no período abordado, o Brasil apresentou o maior IVE entre as economias do grupo, ao passo que economias caracterizadas por uma inserção mais ativa e prudente no mercado global apresentaram os menores índices. Finalmente, conclui-se que a redução da vulnerabilidade externa estrutural passa pela capacidade da economia brasileira de reequilibrar sua conta de transações correntes, tornando-se menos dependente de superávits na conta financeira, isto é, menos dependente dos ciclos de liquidez internacional. No entanto, sem o resgate de uma política de desenvolvimento, que promova modificações na estrutura produtiva, e produza reflexos na pauta exportadora brasileira, o único meio de ampliar os saldos comerciais é a expansão contínua dos preços e da demanda internacional por bens primários e intensivos em recursos naturais.169 fUniversidade Estadual de MaringáBrasilPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Ciências EconômicasUEMMaringá, PRCentro de Ciências Sociais AplicadasEliane Cristina de Araújo SbardellatiMaria de Fátima Garcia - UEMFernando Ferrari Filho - UFRGSPeres, Samuel Costa2018-04-13T19:46:44Z2018-04-13T19:46:44Z2014info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesishttp://repositorio.uem.br:8080/jspui/handle/1/3464porinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da Universidade Estadual de Maringá (RI-UEM)instname:Universidade Estadual de Maringá (UEM)instacron:UEM2018-04-13T19:46:44Zoai:localhost:1/3464Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.uem.br:8080/oai/requestopendoar:2024-04-23T14:56:36.683556Repositório Institucional da Universidade Estadual de Maringá (RI-UEM) - Universidade Estadual de Maringá (UEM)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Fragilidade financeira e vulnerabilidade externa na economia brasileira (1990-2013) |
title |
Fragilidade financeira e vulnerabilidade externa na economia brasileira (1990-2013) |
spellingShingle |
Fragilidade financeira e vulnerabilidade externa na economia brasileira (1990-2013) Peres, Samuel Costa Fragilidade financeira Economia brasileira Vulnerabilidade externa Economia Fragilidade Vulnerabilidade Brasil. Financial fragility External vulnerability Brazilian economy. Brazil. Ciências Sociais Aplicadas Economia |
title_short |
Fragilidade financeira e vulnerabilidade externa na economia brasileira (1990-2013) |
title_full |
Fragilidade financeira e vulnerabilidade externa na economia brasileira (1990-2013) |
title_fullStr |
Fragilidade financeira e vulnerabilidade externa na economia brasileira (1990-2013) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Fragilidade financeira e vulnerabilidade externa na economia brasileira (1990-2013) |
title_sort |
Fragilidade financeira e vulnerabilidade externa na economia brasileira (1990-2013) |
author |
Peres, Samuel Costa |
author_facet |
Peres, Samuel Costa |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Eliane Cristina de Araújo Sbardellati Maria de Fátima Garcia - UEM Fernando Ferrari Filho - UFRGS |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Peres, Samuel Costa |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Fragilidade financeira Economia brasileira Vulnerabilidade externa Economia Fragilidade Vulnerabilidade Brasil. Financial fragility External vulnerability Brazilian economy. Brazil. Ciências Sociais Aplicadas Economia |
topic |
Fragilidade financeira Economia brasileira Vulnerabilidade externa Economia Fragilidade Vulnerabilidade Brasil. Financial fragility External vulnerability Brazilian economy. Brazil. Ciências Sociais Aplicadas Economia |
description |
The main objective in this work is to examine the evolution of financial fragility and external vulnerability of the Brazilian economy from 1990s, i.e., from the country's deepening integration processes and financial liberalization. The central concern that motivates and justifies the study is that the way a country inserts itself internationally has different implications in terms of funding and dependence on foreign capital, and the ability to deal with external shocks or destabilizing factors, and, therefore, assumes a key role in the path of long-term growth of the economy. To cover the proposed objective, the study is divided into two interdependent essays. In the Essay 1, a literature review was conducted with regard to external financial fragility, taking as the starting point the financial instability hypothesis of Hyman Minsky. Afterwards, the index of external financial fragility (EFI) developed by Paula and Alves Junior (1999) is applied, in addition to a supplementary indicator, which served as the basis for the analysis. It was verified that the indicators of financial fragility reflected significantly the volatility and irregularity of foreign capital flows, even during periods of abundant international liquidity, demonstrating the financially unstable character of globalized economies. They also underlined the importance of foreign direct investment and long-term financing to reduce this fragility, and, especially, the necessity of a large volume of international reserves as an expansion of safety margins policy. The Essay 2 performed an analysis of the Brazilian external vulnerability in the referred period, focusing its structural character, through the examination of real-productive, technological, commercial and monetary-financial spheres, and a comparison of some newly industrialized countries (NICs), from structural external vulnerability index (EVI) proposed by Gonçalves (2005). Regarding the results, it became evident that the recurrent stocks and flows imbalances related to the international economic relations of the country indicate a high structural external vulnerability of the Brazilian economy. Furthermore, the international comparative analysis revealed that in the covered period, Brazil had the highest IVE between the economies of the group, while economies characterized by a more active and prudent insertion in the global market had the lowest rates. Finally, it can be concluded that the reduction of structural external vulnerability requires the capability of the Brazilian economy to rebalance its current account, making it less dependent on the financial account surpluses, i.e., less dependent on international liquidity cycles. Nevertheless, without the rescue of a development policy that promotes changes in the production structure, and produce reflexes on Brazilian exports, the only way to expand trade surpluses is the continued expansion of prices and international demand for primary and natural-resource intensive goods. |
publishDate |
2014 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2014 2018-04-13T19:46:44Z 2018-04-13T19:46:44Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://repositorio.uem.br:8080/jspui/handle/1/3464 |
url |
http://repositorio.uem.br:8080/jspui/handle/1/3464 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Estadual de Maringá Brasil Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Econômicas UEM Maringá, PR Centro de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Estadual de Maringá Brasil Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Econômicas UEM Maringá, PR Centro de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional da Universidade Estadual de Maringá (RI-UEM) instname:Universidade Estadual de Maringá (UEM) instacron:UEM |
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Universidade Estadual de Maringá (UEM) |
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UEM |
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Repositório Institucional da Universidade Estadual de Maringá (RI-UEM) |
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Repositório Institucional da Universidade Estadual de Maringá (RI-UEM) |
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Repositório Institucional da Universidade Estadual de Maringá (RI-UEM) - Universidade Estadual de Maringá (UEM) |
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