A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated series

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Mancuso, Aline Castello Branco
Data de Publicação: 2019
Outros Autores: Werner, Liane
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
por
Título da fonte: Acta scientiarum. Technology (Online)
Texto Completo: http://www.periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciTechnol/article/view/41452
Resumo: Over the years, several studies that compare individual forecasts with the combination of forecasts were published. There is, however, no unanimity in the conclusions. Furthermore, methods of combination by regression are poorly explored. This paper presents a comparative study of three methods of combination and their individual forecasts. Based on simulated data, it is evaluated the accuracy of Artificial Neural Networks, ARIMA and exponential smoothing models; calculating the combined forecasts through simple average, minimum variance and regression methods. Four accuracy measurements, MAE, MAPE, RMSE and Theil’s U, were used for choosing the most accurate method. The main contribution is the accuracy of the combination by regression methods.
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spelling A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated seriescombinations of forecastsforecastingaccuracysimulation.Over the years, several studies that compare individual forecasts with the combination of forecasts were published. There is, however, no unanimity in the conclusions. Furthermore, methods of combination by regression are poorly explored. This paper presents a comparative study of three methods of combination and their individual forecasts. Based on simulated data, it is evaluated the accuracy of Artificial Neural Networks, ARIMA and exponential smoothing models; calculating the combined forecasts through simple average, minimum variance and regression methods. Four accuracy measurements, MAE, MAPE, RMSE and Theil’s U, were used for choosing the most accurate method. The main contribution is the accuracy of the combination by regression methods.Universidade Estadual De Maringá2019-07-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.documenttext/plainhttp://www.periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciTechnol/article/view/4145210.4025/actascitechnol.v41i1.41452Acta Scientiarum. Technology; Vol 41 (2019): Publicação Contínua; e41452Acta Scientiarum. Technology; v. 41 (2019): Publicação Contínua; e414521806-25631807-8664reponame:Acta scientiarum. Technology (Online)instname:Universidade Estadual de Maringá (UEM)instacron:UEMengporhttp://www.periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciTechnol/article/view/41452/pdfhttp://www.periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciTechnol/article/view/41452/751375146792http://www.periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciTechnol/article/view/41452/751375146793Copyright (c) 2019 Acta Scientiarum. Technologyhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMancuso, Aline Castello BrancoWerner, Liane2019-07-17T11:54:34Zoai:periodicos.uem.br/ojs:article/41452Revistahttps://www.periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciTechnol/indexPUBhttps://www.periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciTechnol/oai||actatech@uem.br1807-86641806-2563opendoar:2019-07-17T11:54:34Acta scientiarum. Technology (Online) - Universidade Estadual de Maringá (UEM)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated series
title A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated series
spellingShingle A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated series
Mancuso, Aline Castello Branco
combinations of forecasts
forecasting
accuracy
simulation.
title_short A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated series
title_full A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated series
title_fullStr A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated series
title_full_unstemmed A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated series
title_sort A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated series
author Mancuso, Aline Castello Branco
author_facet Mancuso, Aline Castello Branco
Werner, Liane
author_role author
author2 Werner, Liane
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Mancuso, Aline Castello Branco
Werner, Liane
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv combinations of forecasts
forecasting
accuracy
simulation.
topic combinations of forecasts
forecasting
accuracy
simulation.
description Over the years, several studies that compare individual forecasts with the combination of forecasts were published. There is, however, no unanimity in the conclusions. Furthermore, methods of combination by regression are poorly explored. This paper presents a comparative study of three methods of combination and their individual forecasts. Based on simulated data, it is evaluated the accuracy of Artificial Neural Networks, ARIMA and exponential smoothing models; calculating the combined forecasts through simple average, minimum variance and regression methods. Four accuracy measurements, MAE, MAPE, RMSE and Theil’s U, were used for choosing the most accurate method. The main contribution is the accuracy of the combination by regression methods.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019-07-04
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://www.periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciTechnol/article/view/41452
10.4025/actascitechnol.v41i1.41452
url http://www.periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciTechnol/article/view/41452
identifier_str_mv 10.4025/actascitechnol.v41i1.41452
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
por
language eng
por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv http://www.periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciTechnol/article/view/41452/pdf
http://www.periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciTechnol/article/view/41452/751375146792
http://www.periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciTechnol/article/view/41452/751375146793
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2019 Acta Scientiarum. Technology
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2019 Acta Scientiarum. Technology
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document
text/plain
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Estadual De Maringá
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Estadual De Maringá
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Acta Scientiarum. Technology; Vol 41 (2019): Publicação Contínua; e41452
Acta Scientiarum. Technology; v. 41 (2019): Publicação Contínua; e41452
1806-2563
1807-8664
reponame:Acta scientiarum. Technology (Online)
instname:Universidade Estadual de Maringá (UEM)
instacron:UEM
instname_str Universidade Estadual de Maringá (UEM)
instacron_str UEM
institution UEM
reponame_str Acta scientiarum. Technology (Online)
collection Acta scientiarum. Technology (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Acta scientiarum. Technology (Online) - Universidade Estadual de Maringá (UEM)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||actatech@uem.br
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