Modelos DSGE e a crise de 2008: o debate acerca de suas limitações estruturais
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL) |
Texto Completo: | http://www.repositorio.ufal.br/handle/riufal/5739 |
Resumo: | The 2008 financial crisis was responsible for placing the DSGE models at the Center of the macroeconomic debate. Their unsatisfactory performance during the period of the crisis has prompted authors of the most varied theoretical bases to think about the subject. Heterodox and Orthodox authors made analyzes, criticized the models and presented proposals for the future of the development of macroeconomic modeling. A relevant issue is that this movement of authors occurs in a disorganized way. Positions are pulverized in various means of publication. There are interviews on websites, postings on personal blogs, documents directed to government bodies, articles in magazines, among others. This reality required the discussion about the DSGE models to be made in an organized way. In this context, this research aimed to make explicit the post-crisis debate about the structural limitations of DSGE models. For this, it was necessary, in the first place, the development of a timeline of the DSGE models, responsible for the theoretical understanding of their evolution.The next steps were the creation of taxonomies, both for model critiques and proposals for the future of the macroeconomics, to allow a better understanding of the stage of the debate. These taxonomies evidenced proximity and distance between the authors' positioning. They have shown that heterodox authors reaffirm their position on the mainstream economy and understand the need for it to be overcomed. In orthodoxy, there is some distinction of positions, but they did not indicate abrupt changes in the development of macroeconomic modeling. The DSGE models should remain, in the coming years, as an important tool among those available to Central Banks to carry out their economic policy management. It is given a highlight to the relative consensus between orthodox and heterodox authors, who showed concern with the financial sector and the modeling of this sector in the DSGE models. With different theoretical bases, the authors understood that this sector needs to be better understood so that new crises originating in the financial sector can be anticipated or mitigated, thus avoiding large fluctuations in the world economies. Some of the authors presented concrete proposals, alternative models, to minimize such concern. Others understood that the improvements should be implemented within DSGE modeling still. |
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Modelos DSGE e a crise de 2008: o debate acerca de suas limitações estruturaisDSGE models and the 2008 crisis: the discussion on its structural limitationsModelo Dinâmico Estocástico de Equilíbrio GeralTeorias econômicasMacroeconomiaStochastic Model of General EquilibriumEconomic TheoriesMacroeconomicsCNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIAThe 2008 financial crisis was responsible for placing the DSGE models at the Center of the macroeconomic debate. Their unsatisfactory performance during the period of the crisis has prompted authors of the most varied theoretical bases to think about the subject. Heterodox and Orthodox authors made analyzes, criticized the models and presented proposals for the future of the development of macroeconomic modeling. A relevant issue is that this movement of authors occurs in a disorganized way. Positions are pulverized in various means of publication. There are interviews on websites, postings on personal blogs, documents directed to government bodies, articles in magazines, among others. This reality required the discussion about the DSGE models to be made in an organized way. In this context, this research aimed to make explicit the post-crisis debate about the structural limitations of DSGE models. For this, it was necessary, in the first place, the development of a timeline of the DSGE models, responsible for the theoretical understanding of their evolution.The next steps were the creation of taxonomies, both for model critiques and proposals for the future of the macroeconomics, to allow a better understanding of the stage of the debate. These taxonomies evidenced proximity and distance between the authors' positioning. They have shown that heterodox authors reaffirm their position on the mainstream economy and understand the need for it to be overcomed. In orthodoxy, there is some distinction of positions, but they did not indicate abrupt changes in the development of macroeconomic modeling. The DSGE models should remain, in the coming years, as an important tool among those available to Central Banks to carry out their economic policy management. It is given a highlight to the relative consensus between orthodox and heterodox authors, who showed concern with the financial sector and the modeling of this sector in the DSGE models. With different theoretical bases, the authors understood that this sector needs to be better understood so that new crises originating in the financial sector can be anticipated or mitigated, thus avoiding large fluctuations in the world economies. Some of the authors presented concrete proposals, alternative models, to minimize such concern. Others understood that the improvements should be implemented within DSGE modeling still.CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorA crise financeira de 2008 foi responsável por colocar os modelos DSGE no centro do debate macroeconômico. O desempenho não satisfatório deles durante o período da crise fez com que autores das mais variadas bases teóricas se propusessem a pensar sobre o assunto. Autores heterodoxos e ortodoxos fizeram análises, criticaram os modelos e apresentaram propostas para o futuro do desenvolvimento da modelagem macroeconômica. Uma questão relevante é que essa movimentação de autores ocorre de forma desorganizada. Os posicionamentos encontram-se pulverizados por diversos meios de publicação. São entrevistas em sites, postagens em blogs pessoais, documentos direcionados a órgãos de governo, artigos em revistas, entre outros. Essa realidade requereu que a discussão a respeito dos modelos DSGE fosse exposta de forma organizada. Neste contexto, esta pesquisa teve o objetivo de explicitar o debate pós crise 2008 acerca das limitações estruturais dos modelos DSGE. Para tal, foi necessário, em um primeiro momento o desenvolvimento de uma linha do tempo dos modelos DSGE, responsável pelo entendimento teórico do surgimento destes. Os passos seguintes foram as criações de taxonomias, tanto para as críticas aos modelos quanto para as propostas para o futuro da macroeconomia, que permita o melhor entendimento do estágio do debate. Essas taxonomias evidenciaram proximidades e distanciamentos entre o posicionamento dos autores. Demonstraram que os autores heterodoxos reafirmam seu posicionamento sobre a economia mainstream e entendem a necessidade dela ser superada. Na ortodoxia, há certa distinção de posicionamentos, mas que não indicaram mudanças bruscas no desenvolvimento da modelagem macroeconômica. Os modelos DSGE devem permanecer, nos próximos anos, como ferramenta importante entre as disponíveis para os Bancos Centrais realizarem sua gestão de política econômica. Destaque para o relativo consenso entre autores ortodoxos e heterodoxos, que mostraram preocupação com o setor financeiro e a modelagem deste setor nos modelos DSGE. Com bases teóricas distintas, os autores entenderam que este setor precisa ser melhor entendido para que novas crises com origem no setor financeiro possam ser antecipadas ou atenuadas, evitando assim flutuações de grandes proporções nas economias mundiais. Alguns dos autores apresentaram propostas concretas, modelos alternativos, para minimizar tal preocupação. Outros entenderam que as melhorias devem ser implementadas ainda dentro da modelagem DSGE.Universidade Federal de AlagoasBrasilPrograma de Pós-Graduação em EconomiaUFALFerreira Junior , Reynaldo Rubemhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/4384711302538395Silva, Ariane Danielle Baraúna dahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/3988522690075101Antunes, Verônica Nascimento Britohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/4398250179191454Guimarães Júnior, José Valdecyhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/0203492885250116Dias, Édipo Tenório Holanda2019-08-21T16:18:47Z2019-07-092019-08-21T16:18:47Z2019-05-17info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisapplication/pdfDIAS, Édipo Tenório Holanda. Modelos DSGE e a crise de 2008: o debate acerca de suas limitações estruturais. 2019. 200 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia Aplicada) – Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Programa de Pós Graduação em Economia, Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, 2019.http://www.repositorio.ufal.br/handle/riufal/5739porinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL)instname:Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL)instacron:UFAL2019-10-16T15:03:54Zoai:www.repositorio.ufal.br:riufal/5739Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://www.repositorio.ufal.br/oai/requestri@sibi.ufal.bropendoar:2019-10-16T15:03:54Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL) - Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Modelos DSGE e a crise de 2008: o debate acerca de suas limitações estruturais DSGE models and the 2008 crisis: the discussion on its structural limitations |
title |
Modelos DSGE e a crise de 2008: o debate acerca de suas limitações estruturais |
spellingShingle |
Modelos DSGE e a crise de 2008: o debate acerca de suas limitações estruturais Dias, Édipo Tenório Holanda Modelo Dinâmico Estocástico de Equilíbrio Geral Teorias econômicas Macroeconomia Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium Economic Theories Macroeconomics CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
title_short |
Modelos DSGE e a crise de 2008: o debate acerca de suas limitações estruturais |
title_full |
Modelos DSGE e a crise de 2008: o debate acerca de suas limitações estruturais |
title_fullStr |
Modelos DSGE e a crise de 2008: o debate acerca de suas limitações estruturais |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelos DSGE e a crise de 2008: o debate acerca de suas limitações estruturais |
title_sort |
Modelos DSGE e a crise de 2008: o debate acerca de suas limitações estruturais |
author |
Dias, Édipo Tenório Holanda |
author_facet |
Dias, Édipo Tenório Holanda |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Ferreira Junior , Reynaldo Rubem http://lattes.cnpq.br/4384711302538395 Silva, Ariane Danielle Baraúna da http://lattes.cnpq.br/3988522690075101 Antunes, Verônica Nascimento Brito http://lattes.cnpq.br/4398250179191454 Guimarães Júnior, José Valdecy http://lattes.cnpq.br/0203492885250116 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Dias, Édipo Tenório Holanda |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Modelo Dinâmico Estocástico de Equilíbrio Geral Teorias econômicas Macroeconomia Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium Economic Theories Macroeconomics CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
topic |
Modelo Dinâmico Estocástico de Equilíbrio Geral Teorias econômicas Macroeconomia Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium Economic Theories Macroeconomics CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
description |
The 2008 financial crisis was responsible for placing the DSGE models at the Center of the macroeconomic debate. Their unsatisfactory performance during the period of the crisis has prompted authors of the most varied theoretical bases to think about the subject. Heterodox and Orthodox authors made analyzes, criticized the models and presented proposals for the future of the development of macroeconomic modeling. A relevant issue is that this movement of authors occurs in a disorganized way. Positions are pulverized in various means of publication. There are interviews on websites, postings on personal blogs, documents directed to government bodies, articles in magazines, among others. This reality required the discussion about the DSGE models to be made in an organized way. In this context, this research aimed to make explicit the post-crisis debate about the structural limitations of DSGE models. For this, it was necessary, in the first place, the development of a timeline of the DSGE models, responsible for the theoretical understanding of their evolution.The next steps were the creation of taxonomies, both for model critiques and proposals for the future of the macroeconomics, to allow a better understanding of the stage of the debate. These taxonomies evidenced proximity and distance between the authors' positioning. They have shown that heterodox authors reaffirm their position on the mainstream economy and understand the need for it to be overcomed. In orthodoxy, there is some distinction of positions, but they did not indicate abrupt changes in the development of macroeconomic modeling. The DSGE models should remain, in the coming years, as an important tool among those available to Central Banks to carry out their economic policy management. It is given a highlight to the relative consensus between orthodox and heterodox authors, who showed concern with the financial sector and the modeling of this sector in the DSGE models. With different theoretical bases, the authors understood that this sector needs to be better understood so that new crises originating in the financial sector can be anticipated or mitigated, thus avoiding large fluctuations in the world economies. Some of the authors presented concrete proposals, alternative models, to minimize such concern. Others understood that the improvements should be implemented within DSGE modeling still. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-08-21T16:18:47Z 2019-07-09 2019-08-21T16:18:47Z 2019-05-17 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
format |
masterThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
DIAS, Édipo Tenório Holanda. Modelos DSGE e a crise de 2008: o debate acerca de suas limitações estruturais. 2019. 200 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia Aplicada) – Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Programa de Pós Graduação em Economia, Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, 2019. http://www.repositorio.ufal.br/handle/riufal/5739 |
identifier_str_mv |
DIAS, Édipo Tenório Holanda. Modelos DSGE e a crise de 2008: o debate acerca de suas limitações estruturais. 2019. 200 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia Aplicada) – Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Programa de Pós Graduação em Economia, Universidade Federal de Alagoas, Maceió, 2019. |
url |
http://www.repositorio.ufal.br/handle/riufal/5739 |
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por |
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Universidade Federal de Alagoas Brasil Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia UFAL |
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Universidade Federal de Alagoas Brasil Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia UFAL |
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Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL) |
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Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL) - Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL) |
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