Análise da probabilidade de ocorrência de extremos de precipitação e estudo da tendência de classes de precipitação na região metropolitana de São Paulo

• Autor(a) principal: Raimundo, Clebson do Carmo
• Data de Publicação: 2011
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal de Alagoas (UFAL)
• Texto Completo: http://repositorio.ufal.br/handle/riufal/889
• topic: Maximum daily rainfall; Cluster analysis; Gumbel distribuition; Mann Kendall test; Precipitação máxima diária; Cluster análise; Distribuição de Gumbel; Teste de Mann-Kendall; CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::GEOCIENCIAS::METEOROLOGIA

Extreme rainfall events are responsible for social disorder and economic problems, especially in large urban centers. Densely populated areas suffer from flooding , landslide and building destruction that cause deaths and wide-spread diseases, such as malaria, dengue and leptospirosis. They are recurrent phenomena that wear down the life of the urban population, particularly the least privileged ones. The focal area of this work was the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP), Brazil, one of the largest cities in the world. Rainfall daily totals of 21 rain gage network in the MRSP were analyzed to i) estimate the annual maximum daily rainfall (PMDA), by means of the Gumbel distribution; II) group different rainfall rates into classes (from drizzle to extreme rates) and verify the similarity between seasons (clustering), that is annual and seasonal rain rates, for the period 1947 to 1998, making use of the technique known as Cluster Analysis, and III) identify possible trends of three rain rate classes (drizzle, moderate and above 30.0 mm / day) for the annual and seasonal periods, for the whole dataset length of each gage, using the Mann-Kendall trend test. The results showed that the maximum daily rainfall observed data fit the Gumbel distribution in the annual period, with the estimated annual daily maximum rain rate equal to 239.3 mm / day with a return period of 500 years in Barrocada gage, located in MRSP north-central region. Cluster analysis showed little similarity amongst gages, with respect to some rain rate classes, both in the number of events and the classes rain totals, in the annual and seasonal periods. The Mann-Kendall test showed significant increasing trend of the cumulative totals for a larger number of gages for both annual and seasonal periods. The trend of the number of drizzle events class was significantly upward for most gages, again both in the annual and seasonal periods, but not all gages presented increasing trend for the moderate events class. Also, significant increasing trend of the rain rate classes above 30.0 mm / day was found at some gages in the year period. In general, there was significant upward trend of rain rate classes in the MRSP.