Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2009 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFBA |
Texto Completo: | http://www.repositorio.ufba.br/ri/handle/ri/13228 |
Resumo: | p. 1-9 |
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Santos, L. B. L.Costa, M. C.Pinho, Suani Tavares Rubim deAndrade, Roberto Fernandes SilvaBarreto, Florisneide RodriguesTeixeira, Maria da Glória Lima CruzBarreto, Mauricio LimaSantos, L. B. L.Costa, M. C.Pinho, Suani Tavares Rubim deAndrade, Roberto Fernandes SilvaBarreto, Florisneide RodriguesTeixeira, Maria da Glória Lima CruzBarreto, Mauricio Lima2013-10-15T15:17:50Z2013-10-15T15:17:50Z20091539-3755http://www.repositorio.ufba.br/ri/handle/ri/13228v. 80, n. 1p. 1-9A periodically forced two-dimensional cellular automata model is used to reproduce and analyze the complex spatiotemporal patterns observed in the transmission of vector infectious diseases. The system, which comprises three population levels, is introduced to describe complex features of the dynamics of the vector-transmitted dengue epidemics, known to be very sensitive to seasonal variables. The three coupled levels represent the human, the adult, and immature vector populations. The dynamics includes external seasonality forcing, human and mosquito mobility, and vector control effects. The model parameters, even if bounded to well-defined intervals obtained from reported data, can be selected to reproduce specific epidemic outbursts. In the current study, explicit results are obtained by comparison with actual data retrieved from the time series of dengue epidemics in two cities in Brazil. The results show fluctuations that are not captured by mean-field models. It also reveals the qualitative behavior of the spatiotemporal patterns of the epidemics. In the extreme situation of the absence of external periodic drive, the model predicts a completely distinct long-time evolution. The model is robust in the sense that it is able to reproduce the time series of dengue epidemics of different cities, provided that the forcing term takes into account the local rainfall modulation. Finally, an analysis is provided of the effect of the dependence between epidemics threshold and vector control actions, both in the presence and absence of human mobility factor.Submitted by Suelen Reis (suziy.ellen@gmail.com) on 2013-10-02T12:00:40Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PhysRevE.80.016102.pdf: 620636 bytes, checksum: 757087643116445634e02dada0cfd145 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Rodrigo Meirelles(rodrigomei@ufba.br) on 2013-10-15T15:17:50Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 PhysRevE.80.016102.pdf: 620636 bytes, checksum: 757087643116445634e02dada0cfd145 (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2013-10-15T15:17:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PhysRevE.80.016102.pdf: 620636 bytes, checksum: 757087643116445634e02dada0cfd145 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.80.016102reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFBAinstname:Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA)instacron:UFBAPeriodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted diseasePhysical Review Einfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessORIGINALPhysRevE.80.016102.pdfPhysRevE.80.016102.pdfapplication/pdf620636https://repositorio.ufba.br/bitstream/ri/13228/1/PhysRevE.80.016102.pdf757087643116445634e02dada0cfd145MD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain1365https://repositorio.ufba.br/bitstream/ri/13228/2/license.txt5371a150bdc863f78dcf39281543bd86MD52TEXTPhysRevE.80.016102.pdf.txtPhysRevE.80.016102.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain42702https://repositorio.ufba.br/bitstream/ri/13228/3/PhysRevE.80.016102.pdf.txtfdb229c781a73a44c7ac0d8735176305MD53ri/132282022-07-05 14:03:48.284oai:repositorio.ufba.br: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Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://192.188.11.11:8080/oai/requestopendoar:19322022-07-05T17:03:48Repositório Institucional da UFBA - Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease |
dc.title.alternative.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Physical Review E |
title |
Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease |
spellingShingle |
Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease Santos, L. B. L. |
title_short |
Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease |
title_full |
Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease |
title_fullStr |
Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease |
title_full_unstemmed |
Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease |
title_sort |
Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease |
author |
Santos, L. B. L. |
author_facet |
Santos, L. B. L. Costa, M. C. Pinho, Suani Tavares Rubim de Andrade, Roberto Fernandes Silva Barreto, Florisneide Rodrigues Teixeira, Maria da Glória Lima Cruz Barreto, Mauricio Lima |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Costa, M. C. Pinho, Suani Tavares Rubim de Andrade, Roberto Fernandes Silva Barreto, Florisneide Rodrigues Teixeira, Maria da Glória Lima Cruz Barreto, Mauricio Lima |
author2_role |
author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Santos, L. B. L. Costa, M. C. Pinho, Suani Tavares Rubim de Andrade, Roberto Fernandes Silva Barreto, Florisneide Rodrigues Teixeira, Maria da Glória Lima Cruz Barreto, Mauricio Lima Santos, L. B. L. Costa, M. C. Pinho, Suani Tavares Rubim de Andrade, Roberto Fernandes Silva Barreto, Florisneide Rodrigues Teixeira, Maria da Glória Lima Cruz Barreto, Mauricio Lima |
description |
p. 1-9 |
publishDate |
2009 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2009 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2013-10-15T15:17:50Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2013-10-15T15:17:50Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://www.repositorio.ufba.br/ri/handle/ri/13228 |
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv |
1539-3755 |
dc.identifier.number.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
v. 80, n. 1 |
identifier_str_mv |
1539-3755 v. 80, n. 1 |
url |
http://www.repositorio.ufba.br/ri/handle/ri/13228 |
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eng |
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eng |
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openAccess |
dc.source.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.80.016102 |
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