Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Silva, Marx Vinicius Maciel da
Data de Publicação: 2022
Outros Autores: Silveira, Cleiton da Silva, Cabral, Samuellson Lopes, Marcos Júnior, Antônio Duarte, Silva, Greicy Kelly da, Lima, Carlos Eduardo Sousa
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
Texto Completo: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/69366
Resumo: Climate change projects an increase in extreme weather events in the coming decades, which could significantly affect Brazil's water and energy security. Thus, this study sought to analyze possible impacts of climate change on the projections of naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy (ANE) for the Brazilian hydropower sector utilizing five models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects version 6 (CMIP6), based on SSP-4.5 and SSP-8.5 scenarios for the 21st century. Naturalized streamflows for the 24 stations representing the National Interconnected System (NIS) were estimated through the concentrated hydrological model SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure), while the streamflows for the other stations that comprise the NIS were obtained by linear regression. The streamflows, as well as the productivity of the reservoirs, were used to calculate the ANE. The results showed that most of the models project possible reductions in annual naturalized streamflows and ANE for the three periods analyzed and for the North, Northeast, and Southeast/Midwest sectors of Brazil. Meanwhile, the Northern and Southern sectors, for the period 2080–2099, most of the models indicated an increase of annual, precipitation, naturalized streamflows and ANE.
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spelling Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6ANEBrazilian hydropower sectorClimate changeCMIP6StreamflowClimate change projects an increase in extreme weather events in the coming decades, which could significantly affect Brazil's water and energy security. Thus, this study sought to analyze possible impacts of climate change on the projections of naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy (ANE) for the Brazilian hydropower sector utilizing five models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects version 6 (CMIP6), based on SSP-4.5 and SSP-8.5 scenarios for the 21st century. Naturalized streamflows for the 24 stations representing the National Interconnected System (NIS) were estimated through the concentrated hydrological model SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure), while the streamflows for the other stations that comprise the NIS were obtained by linear regression. The streamflows, as well as the productivity of the reservoirs, were used to calculate the ANE. The results showed that most of the models project possible reductions in annual naturalized streamflows and ANE for the three periods analyzed and for the North, Northeast, and Southeast/Midwest sectors of Brazil. Meanwhile, the Northern and Southern sectors, for the period 2080–2099, most of the models indicated an increase of annual, precipitation, naturalized streamflows and ANE.Journal of Water and Climate Change2022-11-22T16:33:38Z2022-11-22T16:33:38Z2022info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfSILVEIRA, C. S. et al. Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6. Journal of Water and Climate Change, [s.l.], v. 13, n. 1, p. 315–336, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.3522040-2244http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/69366Silva, Marx Vinicius Maciel daSilveira, Cleiton da SilvaCabral, Samuellson LopesMarcos Júnior, Antônio DuarteSilva, Greicy Kelly daLima, Carlos Eduardo Sousainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessengreponame:Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)instname:Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)instacron:UFC2023-12-06T17:54:40Zoai:repositorio.ufc.br:riufc/69366Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://www.repositorio.ufc.br/ri-oai/requestbu@ufc.br || repositorio@ufc.bropendoar:2024-09-11T18:31:55.224337Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC) - Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6
title Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6
spellingShingle Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6
Silva, Marx Vinicius Maciel da
ANE
Brazilian hydropower sector
Climate change
CMIP6
Streamflow
title_short Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6
title_full Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6
title_fullStr Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6
title_full_unstemmed Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6
title_sort Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6
author Silva, Marx Vinicius Maciel da
author_facet Silva, Marx Vinicius Maciel da
Silveira, Cleiton da Silva
Cabral, Samuellson Lopes
Marcos Júnior, Antônio Duarte
Silva, Greicy Kelly da
Lima, Carlos Eduardo Sousa
author_role author
author2 Silveira, Cleiton da Silva
Cabral, Samuellson Lopes
Marcos Júnior, Antônio Duarte
Silva, Greicy Kelly da
Lima, Carlos Eduardo Sousa
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Silva, Marx Vinicius Maciel da
Silveira, Cleiton da Silva
Cabral, Samuellson Lopes
Marcos Júnior, Antônio Duarte
Silva, Greicy Kelly da
Lima, Carlos Eduardo Sousa
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv ANE
Brazilian hydropower sector
Climate change
CMIP6
Streamflow
topic ANE
Brazilian hydropower sector
Climate change
CMIP6
Streamflow
description Climate change projects an increase in extreme weather events in the coming decades, which could significantly affect Brazil's water and energy security. Thus, this study sought to analyze possible impacts of climate change on the projections of naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy (ANE) for the Brazilian hydropower sector utilizing five models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects version 6 (CMIP6), based on SSP-4.5 and SSP-8.5 scenarios for the 21st century. Naturalized streamflows for the 24 stations representing the National Interconnected System (NIS) were estimated through the concentrated hydrological model SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure), while the streamflows for the other stations that comprise the NIS were obtained by linear regression. The streamflows, as well as the productivity of the reservoirs, were used to calculate the ANE. The results showed that most of the models project possible reductions in annual naturalized streamflows and ANE for the three periods analyzed and for the North, Northeast, and Southeast/Midwest sectors of Brazil. Meanwhile, the Northern and Southern sectors, for the period 2080–2099, most of the models indicated an increase of annual, precipitation, naturalized streamflows and ANE.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-11-22T16:33:38Z
2022-11-22T16:33:38Z
2022
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv SILVEIRA, C. S. et al. Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6. Journal of Water and Climate Change, [s.l.], v. 13, n. 1, p. 315–336, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.352
2040-2244
http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/69366
identifier_str_mv SILVEIRA, C. S. et al. Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6. Journal of Water and Climate Change, [s.l.], v. 13, n. 1, p. 315–336, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.352
2040-2244
url http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/69366
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Journal of Water and Climate Change
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Journal of Water and Climate Change
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
instname:Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
instacron:UFC
instname_str Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
instacron_str UFC
institution UFC
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
collection Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC) - Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv bu@ufc.br || repositorio@ufc.br
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