Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC) |
Texto Completo: | http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/69366 |
Resumo: | Climate change projects an increase in extreme weather events in the coming decades, which could significantly affect Brazil's water and energy security. Thus, this study sought to analyze possible impacts of climate change on the projections of naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy (ANE) for the Brazilian hydropower sector utilizing five models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects version 6 (CMIP6), based on SSP-4.5 and SSP-8.5 scenarios for the 21st century. Naturalized streamflows for the 24 stations representing the National Interconnected System (NIS) were estimated through the concentrated hydrological model SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure), while the streamflows for the other stations that comprise the NIS were obtained by linear regression. The streamflows, as well as the productivity of the reservoirs, were used to calculate the ANE. The results showed that most of the models project possible reductions in annual naturalized streamflows and ANE for the three periods analyzed and for the North, Northeast, and Southeast/Midwest sectors of Brazil. Meanwhile, the Northern and Southern sectors, for the period 2080–2099, most of the models indicated an increase of annual, precipitation, naturalized streamflows and ANE. |
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Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6ANEBrazilian hydropower sectorClimate changeCMIP6StreamflowClimate change projects an increase in extreme weather events in the coming decades, which could significantly affect Brazil's water and energy security. Thus, this study sought to analyze possible impacts of climate change on the projections of naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy (ANE) for the Brazilian hydropower sector utilizing five models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects version 6 (CMIP6), based on SSP-4.5 and SSP-8.5 scenarios for the 21st century. Naturalized streamflows for the 24 stations representing the National Interconnected System (NIS) were estimated through the concentrated hydrological model SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure), while the streamflows for the other stations that comprise the NIS were obtained by linear regression. The streamflows, as well as the productivity of the reservoirs, were used to calculate the ANE. The results showed that most of the models project possible reductions in annual naturalized streamflows and ANE for the three periods analyzed and for the North, Northeast, and Southeast/Midwest sectors of Brazil. Meanwhile, the Northern and Southern sectors, for the period 2080–2099, most of the models indicated an increase of annual, precipitation, naturalized streamflows and ANE.Journal of Water and Climate Change2022-11-22T16:33:38Z2022-11-22T16:33:38Z2022info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfSILVEIRA, C. S. et al. Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6. Journal of Water and Climate Change, [s.l.], v. 13, n. 1, p. 315–336, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.3522040-2244http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/69366Silva, Marx Vinicius Maciel daSilveira, Cleiton da SilvaCabral, Samuellson LopesMarcos Júnior, Antônio DuarteSilva, Greicy Kelly daLima, Carlos Eduardo Sousainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessengreponame:Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)instname:Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)instacron:UFC2023-12-06T17:54:40Zoai:repositorio.ufc.br:riufc/69366Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://www.repositorio.ufc.br/ri-oai/requestbu@ufc.br || repositorio@ufc.bropendoar:2024-09-11T18:31:55.224337Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC) - Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6 |
title |
Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6 |
spellingShingle |
Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6 Silva, Marx Vinicius Maciel da ANE Brazilian hydropower sector Climate change CMIP6 Streamflow |
title_short |
Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6 |
title_full |
Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6 |
title_fullStr |
Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6 |
title_sort |
Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6 |
author |
Silva, Marx Vinicius Maciel da |
author_facet |
Silva, Marx Vinicius Maciel da Silveira, Cleiton da Silva Cabral, Samuellson Lopes Marcos Júnior, Antônio Duarte Silva, Greicy Kelly da Lima, Carlos Eduardo Sousa |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Silveira, Cleiton da Silva Cabral, Samuellson Lopes Marcos Júnior, Antônio Duarte Silva, Greicy Kelly da Lima, Carlos Eduardo Sousa |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Silva, Marx Vinicius Maciel da Silveira, Cleiton da Silva Cabral, Samuellson Lopes Marcos Júnior, Antônio Duarte Silva, Greicy Kelly da Lima, Carlos Eduardo Sousa |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
ANE Brazilian hydropower sector Climate change CMIP6 Streamflow |
topic |
ANE Brazilian hydropower sector Climate change CMIP6 Streamflow |
description |
Climate change projects an increase in extreme weather events in the coming decades, which could significantly affect Brazil's water and energy security. Thus, this study sought to analyze possible impacts of climate change on the projections of naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy (ANE) for the Brazilian hydropower sector utilizing five models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects version 6 (CMIP6), based on SSP-4.5 and SSP-8.5 scenarios for the 21st century. Naturalized streamflows for the 24 stations representing the National Interconnected System (NIS) were estimated through the concentrated hydrological model SMAP (Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure), while the streamflows for the other stations that comprise the NIS were obtained by linear regression. The streamflows, as well as the productivity of the reservoirs, were used to calculate the ANE. The results showed that most of the models project possible reductions in annual naturalized streamflows and ANE for the three periods analyzed and for the North, Northeast, and Southeast/Midwest sectors of Brazil. Meanwhile, the Northern and Southern sectors, for the period 2080–2099, most of the models indicated an increase of annual, precipitation, naturalized streamflows and ANE. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-11-22T16:33:38Z 2022-11-22T16:33:38Z 2022 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
SILVEIRA, C. S. et al. Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6. Journal of Water and Climate Change, [s.l.], v. 13, n. 1, p. 315–336, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.352 2040-2244 http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/69366 |
identifier_str_mv |
SILVEIRA, C. S. et al. Naturalized streamflows and Affluent Natural Energy projections for the Brazilian hydropower sector for the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios of the CMIP6. Journal of Water and Climate Change, [s.l.], v. 13, n. 1, p. 315–336, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.352 2040-2244 |
url |
http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/69366 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Journal of Water and Climate Change |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Journal of Water and Climate Change |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC) instname:Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC) instacron:UFC |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC) |
instacron_str |
UFC |
institution |
UFC |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC) |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC) - Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
bu@ufc.br || repositorio@ufc.br |
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1813028843511873536 |