O choque nos preços mundiais de petróleo em tempos de pandemia da Covid-19

• Autor(a) principal: Lima, Joel Carlos Caúla
• Data de Publicação: 2021
• Tipo de documento: Trabalho de conclusão de curso
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
• Texto Completo: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/65559
• topic: Petróleo - Economia; COVID-19; Pandemias; Ciências Econômicas

This research seeks to analyze the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on international Crude Oil barrel prices. This energy source is directly related to almost all of the production chains, making most of the products and services dependent on their supply in world markets, which, together with their peculiar characteristics of production and exploration, in addition to the disparate and irregular geographic availability, makes this market extremely volatile. In their intention to anticipate seasonal movements, economic agents negotiate future contracts for this and any other goods, depending on the existence or not of demand for such goods. Faced with uncertainties about the future in the face of a pandemic of world proportions, the WTI and Brent oil futures markets were negotiated close to zero. Other factors contributed to this, such as a commercial dispute between two major world players (Saudi Arabia and Russia), and the unavailability of storage due to the brutal reduction in demand due to measures such as quarantine, lockdown and partial shutdown of the airline industry, a large consumer. of oil products. It presents a WTI oil pricing model using autoregressive vectors, using statistical data from 2009 to 2019 with high predictive efficiency even in scenarios of large price variation, but when applied for the pandemic period, it did not show predictive efficiency, showing that for extreme events like the Covid-19 crash, the chosen model has applicability disregarded