Modelagem hidrológica com vistas à operação de reservatório de múltiplos usos no semiárido

• Autor(a) principal: Oliveira, Francisco Delfábio Teixeira de
• Data de Publicação: 2021
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
• Texto Completo: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/63466
• topic: Simulação; Otimização; Alocação; Modelo hidrológico; Simulation; Optimization; Allocation; Hydrological model

The operation of small water systems in most states in the Northeast of Brazil is carried out without adequate knowledge of water availability, since few reservoirs and rivers are monitored. Since its operation takes place under these conditions, there is a lack of criteria for operating the small systems efficiently. Aiming at solving this question, this research proposes a method of operation of small non-monitored reservoirs in the semiarid region. To this end, the work carried out (1) the development of a hydrological model, with a monthly time step, for small ungauged basins; and (2) the proposition of an operation model for small reservoirs. Aiming at disaggregating annual flows into monthly, the AguiarVM hydrological model was developed. The AguiarVM application areas were the basins of the Cedro, Joaquim Távora and General Sampaio reservoirs, in Ceará, Brazil. The model presented greater representativeness of the runoff for the smallest hydrographic basin (NSE = 0.72 in the Joaquim Távora basin), but presented the characteristic of non-adherence to the highest flow peaks, especially in the largest basin (NSE = 0.42 in the General Sampaio basin). The operation model was applied to the Marengo Reservoir, in Madalena-CE. In the diagnosis phase, it was found that the reservoir has been underutilized, as its flow with 90% annual reliability (Q90) is 1.04 hm³ year-1, but the current withdrawal is 0.02 hm³ year-1. The rainfall trend scenarios indicate that the historical rainfall (1988 to 2021) of dry years is 63% lower than the annual average, whereas in wet years, the rainfall surpasses the annual average by 87%. The operation of the reservoir, linked to participatory management, showed that it is possible to break the paradigm of mutual exclusivity between the participatory approach and optimization techniques. With examples of the optimization potential, for various purposes, the proposed operating model proved to be useful to contribute to the participatory water management of thousands of small water systems in the semi-arid region, especially with regard to increasing the efficiency of the operation of deliberate scenarios in a participatory way.