Análise de risco do orçamento na Construção Civil para edifícios multifamiliares.

• Autor(a) principal: Braga, Priscila Calles Prata
• Data de Publicação: 2019
• Tipo de documento: Trabalho de conclusão de curso
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)
• Texto Completo: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/52193
• topic: Análise de risco; Planejamento; Orçamento

There are nowadays large numbers of unfeasible ventures that are delayed or even inaccessible and, in most cases, due to their deficit budgets. In order to quantitatively analyze as causes of this problem, it is possible to perform a risk analysis on the budgets executed in the multi-family buildings with the predefined standards, without work in question for those chosen only with high standard building budgets and code R16-A according to NBR 12721: 2016. So that you can, through the Monte Carlo Simulation and using the method developed in this paper, define optimistic, pessimistic and most likely limits and counting reserves for each chosen scenario, which is divided into scenario I and II with the study of the total budget data and the data of the stages that have the most influence on the whole, respectively. In addition to analyzing the statistical data, the result of the analysis of each scenario to identify possible failures and subsequently study qualitatively or case. As the steps that have the greatest influence on the total configuration budget of scenario II, were described as steps of: structure, facilities, internal finishing and works management. Through Monte Carlo simulation performed by @Risk software, from historical data of high-end projects executed by Construtora Colmeia, it was possible to develop a method for you to perform a risk analysis of successive projects with resources studied in this area case . In addition to the method, it was possible to note relevant information for those who may have a parameter for future budgets, such as lower and upper bounds for both the total project budget - Scenario I, and for steps that represent a high impact on the budget - Scenario II. of the most likely occurrence value and its standard deviations, and it is then possible to develop optimistic, more probable and optimistic limits for both scenarios. From this, the strategies designed to minimize these risks, such as the contingency reserve, are also calculated in this paper. It is not possible that the probability distribution that best fits the data worked was Beta for all scenarios, however, it is necessary to optimize the tests, such as conducting adherence tests to verify more properly this statistic.