A Regra de Taylor e a Recente PolÃtica MonetÃria Brasileira

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Leonardo Porto Freire
Data de Publicação: 2004
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC
Texto Completo: http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=1840
Resumo: The present study was trying to analyze if the practice of the recent brazilian monetary policy could be explained by the Taylorâs Rule, that recommends a target for the basic interest rate of the economy based on four factors: the current inflation rate; the equilibrium real interest rate; an inflation gap adjustment factor based on the gap between the inflation rate and one given target for inflation; and an output gap adjustment factor based on the gap between the real output and the potential real output. The studied period was from 1995/07 to 2003/12, and the three following analyses were established: a) on Level I â on this analysis were verified the relation between the series of the effective levels of the Selic Interesting rate, and series of this rate purposed by Taylor-type rules quite close to the original proposal; b) Dynamics â on this second analysis were estimated equations based on a Dynamic Model of the Taylorâs Rule, and verified the power of explanation, of those to the effective variations on the Selic rate; and c) on Level II â on this last analysis were estimated equations based on Taylorâs structure, and were verified the explanation power, of those to the effective level of the Selic rate. The results of the referred analyses point to an Idea that Taylorâs Rule, in spite of treating of a simple rule of monetary politics, would have in its scope important elements to explain the Brazilian Monetary Policy on the analyzed period.
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spelling info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisA Regra de Taylor e a Recente PolÃtica MonetÃria Brasileira The Rule of Taylor and the Recent Brazilian Monetary Politics 2004-09-28Pichai Chumvichitra00000000000http://lattes.cnpq.br/064877455708200300000000154Leonardo Porto FreireUniversidade Federal do CearÃPrograma de PÃs-GraduaÃÃo em Economia - CAENUFCBRRule of Taylor Monetary politics Tax of Interests InflationRegra de Taylor PolÃtica MonetÃria Taxa de Juros InflaÃÃoECONOMIAThe present study was trying to analyze if the practice of the recent brazilian monetary policy could be explained by the Taylorâs Rule, that recommends a target for the basic interest rate of the economy based on four factors: the current inflation rate; the equilibrium real interest rate; an inflation gap adjustment factor based on the gap between the inflation rate and one given target for inflation; and an output gap adjustment factor based on the gap between the real output and the potential real output. The studied period was from 1995/07 to 2003/12, and the three following analyses were established: a) on Level I â on this analysis were verified the relation between the series of the effective levels of the Selic Interesting rate, and series of this rate purposed by Taylor-type rules quite close to the original proposal; b) Dynamics â on this second analysis were estimated equations based on a Dynamic Model of the Taylorâs Rule, and verified the power of explanation, of those to the effective variations on the Selic rate; and c) on Level II â on this last analysis were estimated equations based on Taylorâs structure, and were verified the explanation power, of those to the effective level of the Selic rate. The results of the referred analyses point to an Idea that Taylorâs Rule, in spite of treating of a simple rule of monetary politics, would have in its scope important elements to explain the Brazilian Monetary Policy on the analyzed period.Este estudo buscou analisar se a prÃtica da recente polÃtica monetÃria brasileira poderia ser explicada pela Regra de Taylor, que recomenda uma meta, para a taxa de juros bÃsica da economia, baseada em quatro fatores: a taxa de inflaÃÃo corrente; a taxa de juros real de equilÃbrio; um fator de ajuste do desvio da inflaÃÃo, baseado na diferenÃa entre a taxa de inflaÃÃo e a meta para inflaÃÃo; e um fator de ajuste do desvio do produto, baseado na diferenÃa entre o produto real e o produto real potencial. O PerÃodo observado foi de 1995/07 a 2003/12, e foram estabelecidas as trÃs seguintes anÃlises : a) Em NÃvel I â verificaram-se as relaÃÃes entre sÃries dos nÃveis efetivos da Selic e sÃries dessa Taxa sugerida por regras do tipo Taylor bem prÃximas da proposiÃÃo original; b) DinÃmica- estimaram-se equaÃÃes com base em um modelo DinÃmico da Regra de Taylor e verificou-se o poder de explicaÃÃo dessas quanto Ãs variaÃÃes efetivas da Taxa Selic; e c) Em NÃvel II- estimaram-se equaÃÃes com base na estrutura de Taylor e verificou-se o poder de explicaÃÃo dessas quanto aos nÃveis efetivos da Taxa Selic. Os resultados apontam para a idÃia de que a Regra de Taylor, apesar de tratar-se de uma regra simples de polÃtica monetÃria, teria, em seu escopo, elementos importantes para explicar a polÃtica monetÃria brasileira no perÃodo analisado.http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=1840application/pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessporreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFCinstname:Universidade Federal do Cearáinstacron:UFC2019-01-21T11:14:56Zmail@mail.com -
dc.title.pt.fl_str_mv A Regra de Taylor e a Recente PolÃtica MonetÃria Brasileira
dc.title.alternative..fl_str_mv The Rule of Taylor and the Recent Brazilian Monetary Politics
title A Regra de Taylor e a Recente PolÃtica MonetÃria Brasileira
spellingShingle A Regra de Taylor e a Recente PolÃtica MonetÃria Brasileira
Leonardo Porto Freire
Regra de Taylor
PolÃtica MonetÃria
Taxa de Juros
InflaÃÃo
ECONOMIA
title_short A Regra de Taylor e a Recente PolÃtica MonetÃria Brasileira
title_full A Regra de Taylor e a Recente PolÃtica MonetÃria Brasileira
title_fullStr A Regra de Taylor e a Recente PolÃtica MonetÃria Brasileira
title_full_unstemmed A Regra de Taylor e a Recente PolÃtica MonetÃria Brasileira
title_sort A Regra de Taylor e a Recente PolÃtica MonetÃria Brasileira
author Leonardo Porto Freire
author_facet Leonardo Porto Freire
author_role author
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Pichai Chumvichitra
dc.contributor.advisor1ID.fl_str_mv 00000000000
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/0648774557082003
dc.contributor.authorID.fl_str_mv 00000000154
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Leonardo Porto Freire
contributor_str_mv Pichai Chumvichitra
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Regra de Taylor
PolÃtica MonetÃria
Taxa de Juros
InflaÃÃo
topic Regra de Taylor
PolÃtica MonetÃria
Taxa de Juros
InflaÃÃo
ECONOMIA
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv ECONOMIA
dc.description.abstract..fl_txt_mv The present study was trying to analyze if the practice of the recent brazilian monetary policy could be explained by the Taylorâs Rule, that recommends a target for the basic interest rate of the economy based on four factors: the current inflation rate; the equilibrium real interest rate; an inflation gap adjustment factor based on the gap between the inflation rate and one given target for inflation; and an output gap adjustment factor based on the gap between the real output and the potential real output. The studied period was from 1995/07 to 2003/12, and the three following analyses were established: a) on Level I â on this analysis were verified the relation between the series of the effective levels of the Selic Interesting rate, and series of this rate purposed by Taylor-type rules quite close to the original proposal; b) Dynamics â on this second analysis were estimated equations based on a Dynamic Model of the Taylorâs Rule, and verified the power of explanation, of those to the effective variations on the Selic rate; and c) on Level II â on this last analysis were estimated equations based on Taylorâs structure, and were verified the explanation power, of those to the effective level of the Selic rate. The results of the referred analyses point to an Idea that Taylorâs Rule, in spite of treating of a simple rule of monetary politics, would have in its scope important elements to explain the Brazilian Monetary Policy on the analyzed period.
dc.description.abstract.por.fl_txt_mv Este estudo buscou analisar se a prÃtica da recente polÃtica monetÃria brasileira poderia ser explicada pela Regra de Taylor, que recomenda uma meta, para a taxa de juros bÃsica da economia, baseada em quatro fatores: a taxa de inflaÃÃo corrente; a taxa de juros real de equilÃbrio; um fator de ajuste do desvio da inflaÃÃo, baseado na diferenÃa entre a taxa de inflaÃÃo e a meta para inflaÃÃo; e um fator de ajuste do desvio do produto, baseado na diferenÃa entre o produto real e o produto real potencial. O PerÃodo observado foi de 1995/07 a 2003/12, e foram estabelecidas as trÃs seguintes anÃlises : a) Em NÃvel I â verificaram-se as relaÃÃes entre sÃries dos nÃveis efetivos da Selic e sÃries dessa Taxa sugerida por regras do tipo Taylor bem prÃximas da proposiÃÃo original; b) DinÃmica- estimaram-se equaÃÃes com base em um modelo DinÃmico da Regra de Taylor e verificou-se o poder de explicaÃÃo dessas quanto Ãs variaÃÃes efetivas da Taxa Selic; e c) Em NÃvel II- estimaram-se equaÃÃes com base na estrutura de Taylor e verificou-se o poder de explicaÃÃo dessas quanto aos nÃveis efetivos da Taxa Selic. Os resultados apontam para a idÃia de que a Regra de Taylor, apesar de tratar-se de uma regra simples de polÃtica monetÃria, teria, em seu escopo, elementos importantes para explicar a polÃtica monetÃria brasileira no perÃodo analisado.
description The present study was trying to analyze if the practice of the recent brazilian monetary policy could be explained by the Taylorâs Rule, that recommends a target for the basic interest rate of the economy based on four factors: the current inflation rate; the equilibrium real interest rate; an inflation gap adjustment factor based on the gap between the inflation rate and one given target for inflation; and an output gap adjustment factor based on the gap between the real output and the potential real output. The studied period was from 1995/07 to 2003/12, and the three following analyses were established: a) on Level I â on this analysis were verified the relation between the series of the effective levels of the Selic Interesting rate, and series of this rate purposed by Taylor-type rules quite close to the original proposal; b) Dynamics â on this second analysis were estimated equations based on a Dynamic Model of the Taylorâs Rule, and verified the power of explanation, of those to the effective variations on the Selic rate; and c) on Level II â on this last analysis were estimated equations based on Taylorâs structure, and were verified the explanation power, of those to the effective level of the Selic rate. The results of the referred analyses point to an Idea that Taylorâs Rule, in spite of treating of a simple rule of monetary politics, would have in its scope important elements to explain the Brazilian Monetary Policy on the analyzed period.
publishDate 2004
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2004-09-28
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis
status_str publishedVersion
format masterThesis
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=1840
url http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=1840
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal do CearÃ
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv Programa de PÃs-GraduaÃÃo em Economia - CAEN
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv UFC
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv BR
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal do CearÃ
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC
instname:Universidade Federal do Ceará
instacron:UFC
reponame_str Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC
collection Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFC
instname_str Universidade Federal do Ceará
instacron_str UFC
institution UFC
repository.name.fl_str_mv -
repository.mail.fl_str_mv mail@mail.com
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