Regra fiscal e eficácia da política monetária: estimativas para o caso brasileiro

• Autor(a) principal: Anjos, Daniel Pereira dos
• Data de Publicação: 2021
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo (riUfes)
• Texto Completo: http://repositorio.ufes.br/handle/10/14606
• topic: Política monetária; política fiscal; regras fiscais; subject.br-rjbn; Teoria Econômica

A central bank needs to assess the effects of fiscal policy on the economy if it wants to be more precise on the impact of its decisions on the output growth and on the price level. The presentday macroeconomic mainstream suggests a monetary policy acting together with a suitable fiscal policy. Even if an independent central bank is committed to its inflation target, inconsistent fiscal policy can render monetary policy ineffective. This paper tried to understand the effects of fiscal policy on the Brazilian monetary policy conduction. To do so, using monthly data between January 2003 and January 2020, initially a fiscal rule was estimated; from this fiscal rule, using the Kalman filter, a time series was extracted, containing the response of the primary surplus-to-GDP ratio to fluctuations in public debt-to-GDP ratio. Thus, a fiscal reaction index was tested on a monetary policy rule using GMM estimations; the results pointed that a greater fiscal response to changes in debt results in lesser real interest rate variability. The result can be interpreted as a greater monetary policy effectiveness in controlling inflation induced by greater responsiveness to indebtedness.