Real estate development feasibility based on risk analysis: Viabilidad del desarrollo inmobiliario basado en análisis de riesgos

• Autor(a) principal: da Costa Junior, Milton Paulino
• Data de Publicação: 2022
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por; eng
• Título da fonte: Sistemas & Gestão
• Texto Completo: https://www.revistasg.uff.br/sg/article/view/1674

With the civil construction scenario becoming increasingly competitive, companies must work with a small profit margin. With this, any unforeseen event or uncertainty can make the investment unviable. Companies have implemented risk management in their planning, and since 2015, this has also become a mandatory requirement of the ABNT NBR ISO 9001 standard. This study aims to identify and statistically analyze the risks of incorporation using a methodology proposed in light of the PMBOK. A literature review on modeling and risk assessment was conducted, as well as a case study, starting with document analysis and a survey of costs, revenues, and initial assumptions, where a risk survey was conducted with the members of the incorporating company. The indexes were determined through a Monte-Carlo simulation using an Excel software program called @Risk. At the end of the study, the financial viability indicators were established, detailing the range of values and the probability of each of them occurring. Thus, it enabled the feasibility of the enterprise to be determined and understand the utmost importance that risk management has for the effectiveness of an enterprise. Keywords: Risk; Risk Management; Incorporation; Financial viability; PMBOK Guide; Civil Construction.