Produtividade de soja in sílico no bioma Cerrado em função do fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Nicolau Neto, Publius Lentulus Artiaga
Data de Publicação: 2023
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFG
dARK ID: ark:/38995/0013000000tdj
Texto Completo: http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/12719
Resumo: Soybean complex has stood out in the growth of the Brazilian economy. One factor that has contributed to this success in production is agroclimate risk zoning, which recommend sowing dates and areas for Brazil with lower climate risk. In this context, during the growing season, crop is subject to water stresses and higher oscillations of air temperature, which result in a decrease in yield and grain quality. Climatic events such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cause serious social and economic impacts, and are characterized with events of floods, storms, frosts and prolonged droughts. Crop and environment has a multiple interactions and crop modeling comes as a science based on a simple representation of a system capable of represent these interactions. This way, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of the ENOS on simulated soybean yield in different Brazilian regions, sowing dates, maturation groups and soil type. For this, the CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean model was used to simulate yield for 14 locations in Brazil. Climatic data from 1961 to 2016 was obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology and complemented from NASAPOWER until 2020, totaling 60 growing seasons of simulation. The simulation were performed using three soil types and three maturation groups, obtained from works that carried out the calibration of the model. Sowing dates were based on agroclimatic risk zoning, considering the maximum sowing window, divided into each ten days. The yield was correlated with the qualitative classification of ENOS (El Niño, La Niña and neutral phase). El Niño and La Niña phase occurred in 35% of growing season each, totaling 42 events in 60 years. In Cerrado biome, the majority of municipalities indicating a better performance with a late cycle, considering the greater sowing window. The greatest yield gains were obtained in growing seasons with neutral and La Niña phase, resulting in higher yield when compared to El Niño phase. This way, the sowing dates and crop cycle can help to reduce climate risk, independent of ENOS phase, but with soybean showing higher potential yield in growing seasons under neutral and La Niña.
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spelling Battisti, Rafaelhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/9350992609794419Casaroli, Derblaihttp://lattes.cnpq.br/1054839770814863Battisti, RafaelHeinemann, Alexandre BryanBarbosa, Alexandrius de Moraeshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8951447375040117Nicolau Neto, Publius Lentulus Artiaga2023-04-03T14:35:20Z2023-04-03T14:35:20Z2023-02-28NICOLAU NETO, P. L. A. Produtividade de soja in sílico no bioma cerrado em função do fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul. 2023. 113 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Agronomia) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2023.http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/12719ark:/38995/0013000000tdjSoybean complex has stood out in the growth of the Brazilian economy. One factor that has contributed to this success in production is agroclimate risk zoning, which recommend sowing dates and areas for Brazil with lower climate risk. In this context, during the growing season, crop is subject to water stresses and higher oscillations of air temperature, which result in a decrease in yield and grain quality. Climatic events such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cause serious social and economic impacts, and are characterized with events of floods, storms, frosts and prolonged droughts. Crop and environment has a multiple interactions and crop modeling comes as a science based on a simple representation of a system capable of represent these interactions. This way, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of the ENOS on simulated soybean yield in different Brazilian regions, sowing dates, maturation groups and soil type. For this, the CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean model was used to simulate yield for 14 locations in Brazil. Climatic data from 1961 to 2016 was obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology and complemented from NASAPOWER until 2020, totaling 60 growing seasons of simulation. The simulation were performed using three soil types and three maturation groups, obtained from works that carried out the calibration of the model. Sowing dates were based on agroclimatic risk zoning, considering the maximum sowing window, divided into each ten days. The yield was correlated with the qualitative classification of ENOS (El Niño, La Niña and neutral phase). El Niño and La Niña phase occurred in 35% of growing season each, totaling 42 events in 60 years. In Cerrado biome, the majority of municipalities indicating a better performance with a late cycle, considering the greater sowing window. The greatest yield gains were obtained in growing seasons with neutral and La Niña phase, resulting in higher yield when compared to El Niño phase. This way, the sowing dates and crop cycle can help to reduce climate risk, independent of ENOS phase, but with soybean showing higher potential yield in growing seasons under neutral and La Niña.No decorrer dos anos, o complexo soja tem obtido destaque no crescimento da economia brasileira. Um fator que tem contribuído com esse sucesso da produção, são as pesquisas de risco climático, que recomendam épocas e áreas de semeaduras para o Brasil. Neste contexto, no período de safra, a cultura está sujeita a estresses causados por déficit hídrico e oscilações expressivas de temperatura do ar, que resultam na diminuição da produtividade e na qualidade do grão. Eventos climáticos como El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS) causam sérios impactos sociais e econômicos, e são caracterizados por eventos de inundações, tempestades, geadas e secas prolongadas. Diante da complexidade das interações entre a cultura e o ambiente que ela está inserida, a modelagem de cultura vem como ciência fundamentada em representação simples de um sistema capaz de confirmar essas interações. Nesse sentido, o objetivo deste projeto é avaliar os efeitos do fenômeno ENOS sobre a produtividade da soja simulada em diferentes regiões brasileiras, datas de semeadura, grupos de maturação e tipos de solos. Para isso foi utilizado o modelo CSM-CROPGRO-Soja para simulação de produtividade para 14 municípios no Brasil. Os dados climáticos de 1961 a 2016 foram obtidos do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e complementados com a base NASAPOWER até a 2020, totalizando 60 safras de simulação. Para cada local foram utilizados três tipos de solo e três grupos de maturação obtidos em trabalhos que realizaram a calibração do modelo. As datas de semeadura foram baseadas no zoneamento de risco agroclimático, considerando a janela máxima de semeadura, divididas em decêndios. A produtividade obtida foi correlacionada com a classificação qualitativa do ENOS (fase El Niño, Lã Niña e neutro). No período avaliado ocorreram 35% dos anos de El Niño e também 35% de La Niña, totalizando 42 eventos em 60 anos. De modo geral, ao que se refere ao bioma Cerrado, obteve-se maioria dos municípios indicando uma melhor performance com ciclo tardio, considerando a maior expansividade de janela. Os maiores ganhos de produtividade foram obtidos com a semeadura em anos de Neutralidade e de La Niña, dando destaques de produtividade quando comparado aos impactos negativos da fase de El Niño. Assim, a janela de semeadura e ciclo de cultivar podem auxiliar e reduzir o risco climático, independente da fase ENOS, com a cultura resultando em maior potencial produtivo nos anos de neutralidade e La Niña.Submitted by Dayane Basílio (dayanebasilio@ufg.br) on 2023-03-28T13:22:10Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Publius Lentulus Artiaga Nicolau Neto - 2023.pdf: 5205315 bytes, checksum: 193a6243d4e255e46dc278b4deaebe24 (MD5) license_rdf: 805 bytes, checksum: 4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2023-04-03T14:35:20Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Publius Lentulus Artiaga Nicolau Neto - 2023.pdf: 5205315 bytes, checksum: 193a6243d4e255e46dc278b4deaebe24 (MD5) license_rdf: 805 bytes, checksum: 4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347 (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2023-04-03T14:35:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Publius Lentulus Artiaga Nicolau Neto - 2023.pdf: 5205315 bytes, checksum: 193a6243d4e255e46dc278b4deaebe24 (MD5) license_rdf: 805 bytes, checksum: 4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2023-02-28porUniversidade Federal de GoiásPrograma de Pós-graduação em Agronomia (EA)UFGBrasilEscola de Agronomia - EA (RMG)Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessGlycine maxEl Niño Oscilação SulData de semeaduraCicloDSSATEl Nino Southern OscilationSowing datesCrop cycleCIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA::AGROMETEOROLOGIAProdutividade de soja in sílico no bioma Cerrado em função do fenômeno El Niño Oscilação SulSoybean yields in sílico in the Cerrado biome and its relationship with the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenoninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis5500500500219reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFGinstname:Universidade Federal de Goiás (UFG)instacron:UFGLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81748http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/bitstreams/ae48adb7-91b8-4cc4-a7cb-7c2fc77b626d/download8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33MD51CC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8805http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/bitstreams/5f8f8cb3-4ea3-4036-8940-f2184afa0b3b/download4460e5956bc1d1639be9ae6146a50347MD52ORIGINALDissertação - Publius Lentulus Artiaga Nicolau Neto - 2023.pdfDissertação - Publius Lentulus Artiaga Nicolau Neto - 2023.pdfapplication/pdf5205315http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/bitstreams/f37a4f21-9417-4fce-adc3-8f6d39ba0e4b/download193a6243d4e255e46dc278b4deaebe24MD53tede/127192023-04-03 11:35:21.182http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalopen.accessoai:repositorio.bc.ufg.br:tede/12719http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tedeRepositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/oai/requesttasesdissertacoes.bc@ufg.bropendoar:2023-04-03T14:35:21Repositório Institucional da UFG - Universidade Federal de Goiás (UFG)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
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Produtividade de soja in sílico no bioma Cerrado em função do fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul
dc.title.alternative.eng.fl_str_mv Soybean yields in sílico in the Cerrado biome and its relationship with the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon
title Produtividade de soja in sílico no bioma Cerrado em função do fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul
spellingShingle Produtividade de soja in sílico no bioma Cerrado em função do fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul
Nicolau Neto, Publius Lentulus Artiaga
Glycine max
El Niño Oscilação Sul
Data de semeadura
Ciclo
DSSAT
El Nino Southern Oscilation
Sowing dates
Crop cycle
CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA::AGROMETEOROLOGIA
title_short Produtividade de soja in sílico no bioma Cerrado em função do fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul
title_full Produtividade de soja in sílico no bioma Cerrado em função do fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul
title_fullStr Produtividade de soja in sílico no bioma Cerrado em função do fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul
title_full_unstemmed Produtividade de soja in sílico no bioma Cerrado em função do fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul
title_sort Produtividade de soja in sílico no bioma Cerrado em função do fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul
author Nicolau Neto, Publius Lentulus Artiaga
author_facet Nicolau Neto, Publius Lentulus Artiaga
author_role author
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Battisti, Rafael
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/9350992609794419
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv Casaroli, Derblai
dc.contributor.advisor-co1Lattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/1054839770814863
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv Battisti, Rafael
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv Heinemann, Alexandre Bryan
dc.contributor.referee3.fl_str_mv Barbosa, Alexandrius de Moraes
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv http://lattes.cnpq.br/8951447375040117
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Nicolau Neto, Publius Lentulus Artiaga
contributor_str_mv Battisti, Rafael
Casaroli, Derblai
Battisti, Rafael
Heinemann, Alexandre Bryan
Barbosa, Alexandrius de Moraes
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Glycine max
El Niño Oscilação Sul
Data de semeadura
Ciclo
DSSAT
topic Glycine max
El Niño Oscilação Sul
Data de semeadura
Ciclo
DSSAT
El Nino Southern Oscilation
Sowing dates
Crop cycle
CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA::AGROMETEOROLOGIA
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv El Nino Southern Oscilation
Sowing dates
Crop cycle
dc.subject.cnpq.fl_str_mv CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::AGRONOMIA::AGROMETEOROLOGIA
description Soybean complex has stood out in the growth of the Brazilian economy. One factor that has contributed to this success in production is agroclimate risk zoning, which recommend sowing dates and areas for Brazil with lower climate risk. In this context, during the growing season, crop is subject to water stresses and higher oscillations of air temperature, which result in a decrease in yield and grain quality. Climatic events such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cause serious social and economic impacts, and are characterized with events of floods, storms, frosts and prolonged droughts. Crop and environment has a multiple interactions and crop modeling comes as a science based on a simple representation of a system capable of represent these interactions. This way, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of the ENOS on simulated soybean yield in different Brazilian regions, sowing dates, maturation groups and soil type. For this, the CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean model was used to simulate yield for 14 locations in Brazil. Climatic data from 1961 to 2016 was obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology and complemented from NASAPOWER until 2020, totaling 60 growing seasons of simulation. The simulation were performed using three soil types and three maturation groups, obtained from works that carried out the calibration of the model. Sowing dates were based on agroclimatic risk zoning, considering the maximum sowing window, divided into each ten days. The yield was correlated with the qualitative classification of ENOS (El Niño, La Niña and neutral phase). El Niño and La Niña phase occurred in 35% of growing season each, totaling 42 events in 60 years. In Cerrado biome, the majority of municipalities indicating a better performance with a late cycle, considering the greater sowing window. The greatest yield gains were obtained in growing seasons with neutral and La Niña phase, resulting in higher yield when compared to El Niño phase. This way, the sowing dates and crop cycle can help to reduce climate risk, independent of ENOS phase, but with soybean showing higher potential yield in growing seasons under neutral and La Niña.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2023-04-03T14:35:20Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2023-04-03T14:35:20Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2023-02-28
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv NICOLAU NETO, P. L. A. Produtividade de soja in sílico no bioma cerrado em função do fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul. 2023. 113 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Agronomia) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2023.
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dc.identifier.dark.fl_str_mv ark:/38995/0013000000tdj
identifier_str_mv NICOLAU NETO, P. L. A. Produtividade de soja in sílico no bioma cerrado em função do fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul. 2023. 113 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Agronomia) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2023.
ark:/38995/0013000000tdj
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rights_invalid_str_mv Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Goiás
dc.publisher.program.fl_str_mv Programa de Pós-graduação em Agronomia (EA)
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv UFG
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv Brasil
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv Escola de Agronomia - EA (RMG)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Goiás
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