Future projections and ecological modeling for the distribution of non-conventional food plants

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Borges, Carla Karoline Gomes Dutra
Data de Publicação: 2023
Outros Autores: Tomaz, Jennifer Souza, Bezerra, Caroline de Souza, Wrege, Marcos Silveira, Lopes, Maria Teresa Gomes
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical (Online)
Texto Completo: https://revistas.ufg.br/pat/article/view/76279
Resumo: The importance of non-conventional food plants has been evidenced due to their great potential for phenotypic plasticity, resilience and resistance to permanence in inhospitable places. This study aimed to evaluate the natural distribution of two of these species (Eryngium foetidum and Fridericia chica) in the present period (2009-2019) and the projection for two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 - “less pessimistic” and RCP 8.5 - “more pessimistic”) in two-time intervals (2020-2050 and 2051-2070), in the six Brazilian phytogeographic domains. Nineteen bioclimatic variables obtained from the WorldClim database and four algorithm models were tested: Climate Space Model, Envelope Score, Niche Mosaic and Environmental Distance. The Environmental Distance algorithm presented the best discrimination of the models adjusted for the two species. From the projections, it is possible to perceive that the species are severely affected in the phytogeographic domains of the Amazon, Pantanal and Pampa, becoming practically extinct in the RCP 8.5 scenario, for the period of 2051-2070. KEYWORDS: Eryngium foetidum L., Fridericia chica (Bonpl.) L. G. Lohmann, climate projection.
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spelling Future projections and ecological modeling for the distribution of non-conventional food plantsProjeções futuras e modelagem ecológica para a distribuição de plantas alimentícias não convencionaisThe importance of non-conventional food plants has been evidenced due to their great potential for phenotypic plasticity, resilience and resistance to permanence in inhospitable places. This study aimed to evaluate the natural distribution of two of these species (Eryngium foetidum and Fridericia chica) in the present period (2009-2019) and the projection for two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 - “less pessimistic” and RCP 8.5 - “more pessimistic”) in two-time intervals (2020-2050 and 2051-2070), in the six Brazilian phytogeographic domains. Nineteen bioclimatic variables obtained from the WorldClim database and four algorithm models were tested: Climate Space Model, Envelope Score, Niche Mosaic and Environmental Distance. The Environmental Distance algorithm presented the best discrimination of the models adjusted for the two species. From the projections, it is possible to perceive that the species are severely affected in the phytogeographic domains of the Amazon, Pantanal and Pampa, becoming practically extinct in the RCP 8.5 scenario, for the period of 2051-2070. KEYWORDS: Eryngium foetidum L., Fridericia chica (Bonpl.) L. G. Lohmann, climate projection.A importância de plantas alimentícias não convencionais tem sido evidenciada devido ao seu grande potencial de plasticidade fenotípica, resiliência e resistência à permanência em lugares inóspitos. Objetivou-se estudar a distribuição natural de duas espécies dessas plantas (Eryngium foetidum e Fridericia chica) no período presente (2009-2019) e a sua projeção para dois cenários climáticos futuros (RCP 4.5 - “menos pessimista” e RCP 8.5 - “mais pessimista”) em dois intervalos de tempo (2020-2050 e 2051-2070), nos seis domínios fitogeográficos brasileiros. Foram utilizadas 19 variáveis bioclimáticas obtidas da base de dados do WorldClim e quatro modelos de algoritmos foram testados: Climate Space Model, Envelope Score, Niche Mosaic e Environmental Distance. O algoritmo Environmental Distance apresentou a melhor discriminação dos modelos ajustados para as duas espécies. A partir das projeções, é possível perceber que as espécies são severamente afetadas nos domínios fitogeográficos da Amazônia, Pantanal e Pampa, tornando-se praticamente extintas no cenário RCP 8.5 para o período de 2051-2070. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Eryngium foetidum L., Fridericia chica (Bonpl.) L. G. Lohmann, projeção climática.Escola de Agronomia - Universidade Federal de Goiás2023-11-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionAvaliado por paresapplication/pdfhttps://revistas.ufg.br/pat/article/view/76279Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical [Agricultural Research in the Tropics]; Vol. 53 (2023); e76279Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical (Agricultural Research in the Tropics); Vol. 53 (2023); e76279Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical; v. 53 (2023); e762791983-4063reponame:Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Goiás (UFG)instacron:UFGenghttps://revistas.ufg.br/pat/article/view/76279/40370Copyright (c) 2023 Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropicalinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessBorges, Carla Karoline Gomes DutraTomaz, Jennifer SouzaBezerra, Caroline de SouzaWrege, Marcos SilveiraLopes, Maria Teresa Gomes2023-11-03T11:57:09Zoai:ojs.revistas.ufg.br:article/76279Revistahttps://revistas.ufg.br/patPUBhttps://revistas.ufg.br/pat/oaiaseleguini.pat@gmail.com||mgoes@agro.ufg.br1983-40631517-6398opendoar:2024-05-21T19:56:39.658455Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical (Online) - Universidade Federal de Goiás (UFG)true
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Future projections and ecological modeling for the distribution of non-conventional food plants
Projeções futuras e modelagem ecológica para a distribuição de plantas alimentícias não convencionais
title Future projections and ecological modeling for the distribution of non-conventional food plants
spellingShingle Future projections and ecological modeling for the distribution of non-conventional food plants
Borges, Carla Karoline Gomes Dutra
title_short Future projections and ecological modeling for the distribution of non-conventional food plants
title_full Future projections and ecological modeling for the distribution of non-conventional food plants
title_fullStr Future projections and ecological modeling for the distribution of non-conventional food plants
title_full_unstemmed Future projections and ecological modeling for the distribution of non-conventional food plants
title_sort Future projections and ecological modeling for the distribution of non-conventional food plants
author Borges, Carla Karoline Gomes Dutra
author_facet Borges, Carla Karoline Gomes Dutra
Tomaz, Jennifer Souza
Bezerra, Caroline de Souza
Wrege, Marcos Silveira
Lopes, Maria Teresa Gomes
author_role author
author2 Tomaz, Jennifer Souza
Bezerra, Caroline de Souza
Wrege, Marcos Silveira
Lopes, Maria Teresa Gomes
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Borges, Carla Karoline Gomes Dutra
Tomaz, Jennifer Souza
Bezerra, Caroline de Souza
Wrege, Marcos Silveira
Lopes, Maria Teresa Gomes
description The importance of non-conventional food plants has been evidenced due to their great potential for phenotypic plasticity, resilience and resistance to permanence in inhospitable places. This study aimed to evaluate the natural distribution of two of these species (Eryngium foetidum and Fridericia chica) in the present period (2009-2019) and the projection for two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 - “less pessimistic” and RCP 8.5 - “more pessimistic”) in two-time intervals (2020-2050 and 2051-2070), in the six Brazilian phytogeographic domains. Nineteen bioclimatic variables obtained from the WorldClim database and four algorithm models were tested: Climate Space Model, Envelope Score, Niche Mosaic and Environmental Distance. The Environmental Distance algorithm presented the best discrimination of the models adjusted for the two species. From the projections, it is possible to perceive that the species are severely affected in the phytogeographic domains of the Amazon, Pantanal and Pampa, becoming practically extinct in the RCP 8.5 scenario, for the period of 2051-2070. KEYWORDS: Eryngium foetidum L., Fridericia chica (Bonpl.) L. G. Lohmann, climate projection.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-11-03
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Avaliado por pares
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://revistas.ufg.br/pat/article/view/76279
url https://revistas.ufg.br/pat/article/view/76279
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://revistas.ufg.br/pat/article/view/76279/40370
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2023 Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2023 Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Escola de Agronomia - Universidade Federal de Goiás
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Escola de Agronomia - Universidade Federal de Goiás
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical [Agricultural Research in the Tropics]; Vol. 53 (2023); e76279
Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical (Agricultural Research in the Tropics); Vol. 53 (2023); e76279
Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical; v. 53 (2023); e76279
1983-4063
reponame:Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical (Online)
instname:Universidade Federal de Goiás (UFG)
instacron:UFG
instname_str Universidade Federal de Goiás (UFG)
instacron_str UFG
institution UFG
reponame_str Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical (Online)
collection Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical (Online) - Universidade Federal de Goiás (UFG)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv aseleguini.pat@gmail.com||mgoes@agro.ufg.br
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