FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENTS IN FOREST CONCESSION FOR AMAZON BRAZILIAN BY DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC METHODS
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Cerne (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/2083 |
Resumo: | Forest concessions were implemented in Brazil as a way to increase the areas of sustainable forest management. Little is known about the financial viability of forest management in Brazil, which is one of its main bottlenecks. In this context, he objective of the study was to evaluate the financial viability of an investment in forest concession. In order to do so, the Net Present Value (NPV), Periodic Equivalent Benefit (PEB), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Real Options Analysis (ROA) were adopted, and the option of abandonment was also analyzed. As a variable for ROA analysis, the productivity (m³/ha) at the first years of forest concession under study was adopted. The NPV of the investment corresponds to US$ 8.04/m³, the PEB was US$ 0.52/m³/year and the IRR, 20.75%. In order to be considered feasible, the forest concession must have a minimum productivity of 17.75 m³/ha. Of the 861 managerial decisions, the option to proceed with the investment was adopted in 237 nodes (27.53%), and the decision to abandon was exercised in 624 nodes (72.47%). This is a worrying result for the concessionaire companies and also for the management entity of the forest concessions, mainly when comparing with the reality of the concessions, where abandonment is an option that has been performed. It is concluded that the high probability of abandoning highlights a fragility of forest concessions. ROA proved to be a good methodology to complement traditional methods of financial analysis, presenting satisfactory results in aiding decision-making. |
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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENTS IN FOREST CONCESSION FOR AMAZON BRAZILIAN BY DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC METHODSANÁLISE FINANCEIRA DE INVESTIMENTOS EM CONCESSÃO FLORESTAL NA AMAZÔNIA BRASILEIRA POR MÉTODOS DETERMINÍSTICOS E ESTOCÁSTICOSrisk analysisfinancial viabilitysustainable forest managementForest concessions were implemented in Brazil as a way to increase the areas of sustainable forest management. Little is known about the financial viability of forest management in Brazil, which is one of its main bottlenecks. In this context, he objective of the study was to evaluate the financial viability of an investment in forest concession. In order to do so, the Net Present Value (NPV), Periodic Equivalent Benefit (PEB), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Real Options Analysis (ROA) were adopted, and the option of abandonment was also analyzed. As a variable for ROA analysis, the productivity (m³/ha) at the first years of forest concession under study was adopted. The NPV of the investment corresponds to US$ 8.04/m³, the PEB was US$ 0.52/m³/year and the IRR, 20.75%. In order to be considered feasible, the forest concession must have a minimum productivity of 17.75 m³/ha. Of the 861 managerial decisions, the option to proceed with the investment was adopted in 237 nodes (27.53%), and the decision to abandon was exercised in 624 nodes (72.47%). This is a worrying result for the concessionaire companies and also for the management entity of the forest concessions, mainly when comparing with the reality of the concessions, where abandonment is an option that has been performed. It is concluded that the high probability of abandoning highlights a fragility of forest concessions. ROA proved to be a good methodology to complement traditional methods of financial analysis, presenting satisfactory results in aiding decision-making.CERNECERNE2020-02-20info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/2083CERNE; Vol. 25 No. 4 (2019); 482-490CERNE; v. 25 n. 4 (2019); 482-4902317-63420104-7760reponame:Cerne (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)instacron:UFLAenghttps://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/2083/1164Copyright (c) 2020 CERNEinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessRodrigues, Maisa Isabela2020-02-21T11:40:18Zoai:cerne.ufla.br:article/2083Revistahttps://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNEPUBhttps://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/oaicerne@dcf.ufla.br||cerne@dcf.ufla.br2317-63420104-7760opendoar:2024-05-21T19:54:40.723940Cerne (Online) - Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)true |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENTS IN FOREST CONCESSION FOR AMAZON BRAZILIAN BY DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC METHODS ANÁLISE FINANCEIRA DE INVESTIMENTOS EM CONCESSÃO FLORESTAL NA AMAZÔNIA BRASILEIRA POR MÉTODOS DETERMINÍSTICOS E ESTOCÁSTICOS |
title |
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENTS IN FOREST CONCESSION FOR AMAZON BRAZILIAN BY DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC METHODS |
spellingShingle |
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENTS IN FOREST CONCESSION FOR AMAZON BRAZILIAN BY DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC METHODS Rodrigues, Maisa Isabela risk analysis financial viability sustainable forest management |
title_short |
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENTS IN FOREST CONCESSION FOR AMAZON BRAZILIAN BY DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC METHODS |
title_full |
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENTS IN FOREST CONCESSION FOR AMAZON BRAZILIAN BY DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC METHODS |
title_fullStr |
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENTS IN FOREST CONCESSION FOR AMAZON BRAZILIAN BY DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC METHODS |
title_full_unstemmed |
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENTS IN FOREST CONCESSION FOR AMAZON BRAZILIAN BY DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC METHODS |
title_sort |
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENTS IN FOREST CONCESSION FOR AMAZON BRAZILIAN BY DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC METHODS |
author |
Rodrigues, Maisa Isabela |
author_facet |
Rodrigues, Maisa Isabela |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Rodrigues, Maisa Isabela |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
risk analysis financial viability sustainable forest management |
topic |
risk analysis financial viability sustainable forest management |
description |
Forest concessions were implemented in Brazil as a way to increase the areas of sustainable forest management. Little is known about the financial viability of forest management in Brazil, which is one of its main bottlenecks. In this context, he objective of the study was to evaluate the financial viability of an investment in forest concession. In order to do so, the Net Present Value (NPV), Periodic Equivalent Benefit (PEB), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Real Options Analysis (ROA) were adopted, and the option of abandonment was also analyzed. As a variable for ROA analysis, the productivity (m³/ha) at the first years of forest concession under study was adopted. The NPV of the investment corresponds to US$ 8.04/m³, the PEB was US$ 0.52/m³/year and the IRR, 20.75%. In order to be considered feasible, the forest concession must have a minimum productivity of 17.75 m³/ha. Of the 861 managerial decisions, the option to proceed with the investment was adopted in 237 nodes (27.53%), and the decision to abandon was exercised in 624 nodes (72.47%). This is a worrying result for the concessionaire companies and also for the management entity of the forest concessions, mainly when comparing with the reality of the concessions, where abandonment is an option that has been performed. It is concluded that the high probability of abandoning highlights a fragility of forest concessions. ROA proved to be a good methodology to complement traditional methods of financial analysis, presenting satisfactory results in aiding decision-making. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-02-20 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/2083 |
url |
https://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/2083 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/2083/1164 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2020 CERNE info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2020 CERNE |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
CERNE CERNE |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
CERNE CERNE |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
CERNE; Vol. 25 No. 4 (2019); 482-490 CERNE; v. 25 n. 4 (2019); 482-490 2317-6342 0104-7760 reponame:Cerne (Online) instname:Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) instacron:UFLA |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) |
instacron_str |
UFLA |
institution |
UFLA |
reponame_str |
Cerne (Online) |
collection |
Cerne (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Cerne (Online) - Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
cerne@dcf.ufla.br||cerne@dcf.ufla.br |
_version_ |
1799874943768330240 |