STUDY OF SURVIVAL TIME IN PULP EXPORT
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2016 |
Outros Autores: | , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Cerne (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/854 |
Resumo: | This study analyzed the time for a country to survive exporting pulp, using a Cox regression model. Covariates being used included data about population, Gross Domestic Product, total exports of forest products as an aggregate, pulp production and balance of trade for pulp, economic markets and blocks, and geographic regions. To select and check the most significant covariates, a proposal formulated by Collet (1994) was used. It was concluded that survival analysis via the Cox regression model proved to be a powerful tool for predicting the survival of a country exporting pulp; around 80% of countries that have pulp in their list of exports continue to export the commodity; out of the fifteen covariates selected for fitting the Cox model, four explain the model and two were found significant in explaining the survival of a country exporting pulp; international trade agreements were more significant in the Cox regression model than classes of macroeconomic forest indicators and geographic location; covariates explaining the odds of a country exporting pulp to survive, according to the hazard ratio, were, in descending order, integration between ECLAC and European Union, be a member of the European Union (V07) and be a member of ECLAC (V6); Brazil has 3.5 times as much chance of survival exporting pulp through an integration between ECLAC and the European Union than a country that is not a part of such integration; the probability that Brazil will survive exporting pulp is greater than the probability that Asian countries will. |
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STUDY OF SURVIVAL TIME IN PULP EXPORTForest economicssurvival analysisCox model.This study analyzed the time for a country to survive exporting pulp, using a Cox regression model. Covariates being used included data about population, Gross Domestic Product, total exports of forest products as an aggregate, pulp production and balance of trade for pulp, economic markets and blocks, and geographic regions. To select and check the most significant covariates, a proposal formulated by Collet (1994) was used. It was concluded that survival analysis via the Cox regression model proved to be a powerful tool for predicting the survival of a country exporting pulp; around 80% of countries that have pulp in their list of exports continue to export the commodity; out of the fifteen covariates selected for fitting the Cox model, four explain the model and two were found significant in explaining the survival of a country exporting pulp; international trade agreements were more significant in the Cox regression model than classes of macroeconomic forest indicators and geographic location; covariates explaining the odds of a country exporting pulp to survive, according to the hazard ratio, were, in descending order, integration between ECLAC and European Union, be a member of the European Union (V07) and be a member of ECLAC (V6); Brazil has 3.5 times as much chance of survival exporting pulp through an integration between ECLAC and the European Union than a country that is not a part of such integration; the probability that Brazil will survive exporting pulp is greater than the probability that Asian countries will.CERNECERNE2016-04-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/854CERNE; Vol. 18 No. 4 (2012); 547-555CERNE; v. 18 n. 4 (2012); 547-5552317-63420104-7760reponame:Cerne (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)instacron:UFLAenghttps://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/854/633Copyright (c) 2016 CERNEinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCoelho Junior, Luiz MoreiraRezende, José Luiz Pereira deVivanco, Mario Javier FerruaOliveira, Antônio Donizette deBorges, Luís Antônio Coimbra2016-04-19T17:51:28Zoai:cerne.ufla.br:article/854Revistahttps://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNEPUBhttps://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/oaicerne@dcf.ufla.br||cerne@dcf.ufla.br2317-63420104-7760opendoar:2024-05-21T19:54:08.116653Cerne (Online) - Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)true |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
STUDY OF SURVIVAL TIME IN PULP EXPORT |
title |
STUDY OF SURVIVAL TIME IN PULP EXPORT |
spellingShingle |
STUDY OF SURVIVAL TIME IN PULP EXPORT Coelho Junior, Luiz Moreira Forest economics survival analysis Cox model. |
title_short |
STUDY OF SURVIVAL TIME IN PULP EXPORT |
title_full |
STUDY OF SURVIVAL TIME IN PULP EXPORT |
title_fullStr |
STUDY OF SURVIVAL TIME IN PULP EXPORT |
title_full_unstemmed |
STUDY OF SURVIVAL TIME IN PULP EXPORT |
title_sort |
STUDY OF SURVIVAL TIME IN PULP EXPORT |
author |
Coelho Junior, Luiz Moreira |
author_facet |
Coelho Junior, Luiz Moreira Rezende, José Luiz Pereira de Vivanco, Mario Javier Ferrua Oliveira, Antônio Donizette de Borges, Luís Antônio Coimbra |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Rezende, José Luiz Pereira de Vivanco, Mario Javier Ferrua Oliveira, Antônio Donizette de Borges, Luís Antônio Coimbra |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Coelho Junior, Luiz Moreira Rezende, José Luiz Pereira de Vivanco, Mario Javier Ferrua Oliveira, Antônio Donizette de Borges, Luís Antônio Coimbra |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Forest economics survival analysis Cox model. |
topic |
Forest economics survival analysis Cox model. |
description |
This study analyzed the time for a country to survive exporting pulp, using a Cox regression model. Covariates being used included data about population, Gross Domestic Product, total exports of forest products as an aggregate, pulp production and balance of trade for pulp, economic markets and blocks, and geographic regions. To select and check the most significant covariates, a proposal formulated by Collet (1994) was used. It was concluded that survival analysis via the Cox regression model proved to be a powerful tool for predicting the survival of a country exporting pulp; around 80% of countries that have pulp in their list of exports continue to export the commodity; out of the fifteen covariates selected for fitting the Cox model, four explain the model and two were found significant in explaining the survival of a country exporting pulp; international trade agreements were more significant in the Cox regression model than classes of macroeconomic forest indicators and geographic location; covariates explaining the odds of a country exporting pulp to survive, according to the hazard ratio, were, in descending order, integration between ECLAC and European Union, be a member of the European Union (V07) and be a member of ECLAC (V6); Brazil has 3.5 times as much chance of survival exporting pulp through an integration between ECLAC and the European Union than a country that is not a part of such integration; the probability that Brazil will survive exporting pulp is greater than the probability that Asian countries will. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016-04-05 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/854 |
url |
https://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/854 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://cerne.ufla.br/site/index.php/CERNE/article/view/854/633 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2016 CERNE info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2016 CERNE |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
CERNE CERNE |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
CERNE CERNE |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
CERNE; Vol. 18 No. 4 (2012); 547-555 CERNE; v. 18 n. 4 (2012); 547-555 2317-6342 0104-7760 reponame:Cerne (Online) instname:Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) instacron:UFLA |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) |
instacron_str |
UFLA |
institution |
UFLA |
reponame_str |
Cerne (Online) |
collection |
Cerne (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Cerne (Online) - Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
cerne@dcf.ufla.br||cerne@dcf.ufla.br |
_version_ |
1799874941892427776 |