Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFLA |
Texto Completo: | http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/48425 |
Resumo: | Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio-economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity. |
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Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessmentBiological invasionsExpert surveyGlobalizationInvasões biológicasGlobalizaçãoUnderstanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio-economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.Wiley2021-10-28T19:04:32Z2021-10-28T19:04:32Z2020-09info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfESSL, F. et al. Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment. Global Change Biology, Oxford, v. 26, n. 9, p. 4880-4893, Sept. 2020.http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/48425Global Change Biologyreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFLAinstname:Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)instacron:UFLAAttribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessEssl, FranzLenzner, BerndBacher, SvenBailey, SarahCapinha, CesarDaehler, CurtisDullinger, StefanGenovesi, PieroHui, CangHulme, Philip E.Jeschke, Jonathan M.Katsanevakis, SteliosKühn, IngolfLeung, BrianLiebhold, AndrewLiu, ChunlongMacIsaac, Hugh J.Meyerson, Laura A.Nuñez, Martin A.Pauchard, AníbalPyšek, PetrRabitsch, WolfgangRichardson, David M.Roy, Helen E.Ruiz, Gregory M.Russell, James C.Sanders, Nathan J.Sax, Dov F.Scalera, RiccardoSeebens, HannoSpringborn, MichaelTurbelin, AnnaVan Kleunen, MarkVon Holle, BetsyWinter, MartenZenni, Rafael D.Mattsson, Brady J.Roura-Pascual, Nuriaeng2021-10-28T19:04:33Zoai:localhost:1/48425Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.ufla.br/oai/requestnivaldo@ufla.br || repositorio.biblioteca@ufla.bropendoar:2021-10-28T19:04:33Repositório Institucional da UFLA - Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment |
title |
Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment |
spellingShingle |
Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment Essl, Franz Biological invasions Expert survey Globalization Invasões biológicas Globalização |
title_short |
Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment |
title_full |
Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment |
title_fullStr |
Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment |
title_sort |
Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment |
author |
Essl, Franz |
author_facet |
Essl, Franz Lenzner, Bernd Bacher, Sven Bailey, Sarah Capinha, Cesar Daehler, Curtis Dullinger, Stefan Genovesi, Piero Hui, Cang Hulme, Philip E. Jeschke, Jonathan M. Katsanevakis, Stelios Kühn, Ingolf Leung, Brian Liebhold, Andrew Liu, Chunlong MacIsaac, Hugh J. Meyerson, Laura A. Nuñez, Martin A. Pauchard, Aníbal Pyšek, Petr Rabitsch, Wolfgang Richardson, David M. Roy, Helen E. Ruiz, Gregory M. Russell, James C. Sanders, Nathan J. Sax, Dov F. Scalera, Riccardo Seebens, Hanno Springborn, Michael Turbelin, Anna Van Kleunen, Mark Von Holle, Betsy Winter, Marten Zenni, Rafael D. Mattsson, Brady J. Roura-Pascual, Nuria |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Lenzner, Bernd Bacher, Sven Bailey, Sarah Capinha, Cesar Daehler, Curtis Dullinger, Stefan Genovesi, Piero Hui, Cang Hulme, Philip E. Jeschke, Jonathan M. Katsanevakis, Stelios Kühn, Ingolf Leung, Brian Liebhold, Andrew Liu, Chunlong MacIsaac, Hugh J. Meyerson, Laura A. Nuñez, Martin A. Pauchard, Aníbal Pyšek, Petr Rabitsch, Wolfgang Richardson, David M. Roy, Helen E. Ruiz, Gregory M. Russell, James C. Sanders, Nathan J. Sax, Dov F. Scalera, Riccardo Seebens, Hanno Springborn, Michael Turbelin, Anna Van Kleunen, Mark Von Holle, Betsy Winter, Marten Zenni, Rafael D. Mattsson, Brady J. Roura-Pascual, Nuria |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Essl, Franz Lenzner, Bernd Bacher, Sven Bailey, Sarah Capinha, Cesar Daehler, Curtis Dullinger, Stefan Genovesi, Piero Hui, Cang Hulme, Philip E. Jeschke, Jonathan M. Katsanevakis, Stelios Kühn, Ingolf Leung, Brian Liebhold, Andrew Liu, Chunlong MacIsaac, Hugh J. Meyerson, Laura A. Nuñez, Martin A. Pauchard, Aníbal Pyšek, Petr Rabitsch, Wolfgang Richardson, David M. Roy, Helen E. Ruiz, Gregory M. Russell, James C. Sanders, Nathan J. Sax, Dov F. Scalera, Riccardo Seebens, Hanno Springborn, Michael Turbelin, Anna Van Kleunen, Mark Von Holle, Betsy Winter, Marten Zenni, Rafael D. Mattsson, Brady J. Roura-Pascual, Nuria |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Biological invasions Expert survey Globalization Invasões biológicas Globalização |
topic |
Biological invasions Expert survey Globalization Invasões biológicas Globalização |
description |
Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio-economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-09 2021-10-28T19:04:32Z 2021-10-28T19:04:32Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
ESSL, F. et al. Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment. Global Change Biology, Oxford, v. 26, n. 9, p. 4880-4893, Sept. 2020. http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/48425 |
identifier_str_mv |
ESSL, F. et al. Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment. Global Change Biology, Oxford, v. 26, n. 9, p. 4880-4893, Sept. 2020. |
url |
http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/48425 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Wiley |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Wiley |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Global Change Biology reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFLA instname:Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) instacron:UFLA |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) |
instacron_str |
UFLA |
institution |
UFLA |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UFLA |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UFLA |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UFLA - Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
nivaldo@ufla.br || repositorio.biblioteca@ufla.br |
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1807835198939725824 |