Evaluating and projecting extreme meteorological droughts over two strategic regions of Brazil: the Brazilian Pantanal and Southern Minas Gerais
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2022 |
Tipo de documento: | Tese |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFLA |
Texto Completo: | http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/50340 |
Resumo: | Brazil contains the largest volume of freshwater of any country in the world. However, this important natural resource is threatened by increases in water demand and water quality degradation, mainly as a result of anthropogenic pressures. As a result of this pressures, natural hazards, such as droughts are probably becoming more common in the future. In recent years, droughts have affected different regions of Brazil, impacting energy security, food production, and water consumption. In this study, the severity of droughts that hit two strategic regions of Brazil, Southern Minas Gerais and the Brazilian Pantanal were analyzed and were projected up to the end of the XXI century. The first, is well-known by its coffee crop production (more than 30% of country’s production) and hydroelectricity generation. The second, it is one of the largest wetland in the world and home for species and unique animals and plants. To access the severity of the droughts, the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration considering the hydrological years (SPI12) were investigated over time and space. Two different datasets were considered as observaded data in this study: data from the National Water and Sanitation Agency (ANA) and from the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Also, severe droughts were projected up to 2098/2099 using two RCM ensembles, from Eta project (BESM, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) and CORDEX project (CSIRO, IPSL-CM5A, GDFL, NorEMS1) under two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 2013/2014 hydrological year was the driest ever recorded in South of Minas Gerais. Projections have shown that this event might occur again in the future, with several consectuve events possibly happening more often. In Pantanal, in 80 years of observed data, the hydrological year of 2019/2020 was the driest observed in Pantanal, with 1960s decade been the worst. SPI projections have shown different results, with CORDEX projecting extreme droughts until 2040, and Eta models not showing extreme events. SPEI projections, otherwise, have shown extrem drought events in the end of the XXI century, for both, Eta and CORDEX. Observed data and projections give information that will help decision makers and stock holders in the detection of drought anomalies in short terms and for long term analyses. |
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Evaluating and projecting extreme meteorological droughts over two strategic regions of Brazil: the Brazilian Pantanal and Southern Minas GeraisAvaliação e projeção de secas meteorológicas severas sobre duas regiões do Brasil: o pantanal e o sul de Minas GeraisÍndices de secaÁreas alagadasProjeções de secasDrought indexWetlandDrought projectionsRecursos HídricosBrazil contains the largest volume of freshwater of any country in the world. However, this important natural resource is threatened by increases in water demand and water quality degradation, mainly as a result of anthropogenic pressures. As a result of this pressures, natural hazards, such as droughts are probably becoming more common in the future. In recent years, droughts have affected different regions of Brazil, impacting energy security, food production, and water consumption. In this study, the severity of droughts that hit two strategic regions of Brazil, Southern Minas Gerais and the Brazilian Pantanal were analyzed and were projected up to the end of the XXI century. The first, is well-known by its coffee crop production (more than 30% of country’s production) and hydroelectricity generation. The second, it is one of the largest wetland in the world and home for species and unique animals and plants. To access the severity of the droughts, the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration considering the hydrological years (SPI12) were investigated over time and space. Two different datasets were considered as observaded data in this study: data from the National Water and Sanitation Agency (ANA) and from the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Also, severe droughts were projected up to 2098/2099 using two RCM ensembles, from Eta project (BESM, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) and CORDEX project (CSIRO, IPSL-CM5A, GDFL, NorEMS1) under two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 2013/2014 hydrological year was the driest ever recorded in South of Minas Gerais. Projections have shown that this event might occur again in the future, with several consectuve events possibly happening more often. In Pantanal, in 80 years of observed data, the hydrological year of 2019/2020 was the driest observed in Pantanal, with 1960s decade been the worst. SPI projections have shown different results, with CORDEX projecting extreme droughts until 2040, and Eta models not showing extreme events. SPEI projections, otherwise, have shown extrem drought events in the end of the XXI century, for both, Eta and CORDEX. Observed data and projections give information that will help decision makers and stock holders in the detection of drought anomalies in short terms and for long term analyses.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)O Brasil possui as maiores reservas de água doce do mundo. No entanto, este importante recurso natural está ameaçado pelo aumento da demanda por água e pela degradação de sua qualidade, principalmente como resultado de pressões antrópicas e mudanças climáticas. Como resultado dessas pressões, desastres naturais, como secas, estão se tornando mais comuns. Nos últimos anos, as secas afetaram diversas regiões do Brasil, impactando segurança energética, produção de alimentos e fornecimento de água. Neste estudo, a severidade das secas que atingiram duas importantes regiões do Brasil, Sul de Minas Gerais e o Pantanal brasileiro foram analisadas e projetadas até o final do século XXI. A primeira é conhecida pela produção de cafés de alta qualidade, exportada para o mundo, sendo uma das principais commodities do país e pela geração e potencial hidrelétrica. A segunda, consiste de um dos maiores biomas alagados do mundo e lar de espécies animais e plantas únicos. Para acessar a severidade das secas, o Índice de Precipitação Padronizado e o Índice Padronizado de Precipitação-Evapotranspiração considerando os anos hidrológicos (SPI12 e SPEI12) foram investigados no tempo e no espaço. Dois conjuntos de dados diferentes foram considerados como dados observados neste estudo: dados da Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento (ANA) e do Climate Research Unit (CRU). Além disso, secas severas foram projetadas até 2098/2099 usando dados de dois Modelos Regionais Climáticos (RCM), do projeto Eta (BESM, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES e Eta-MIROC5) e do projeto CORDEX (CSIRO, IPSL-CM5A, GDFL, NorEMS1) sob dois Cenários de Concentrações (RCP), RCP4.5 e RCP8.5. O ano hidrológico 2013/2014 foi o mais seco já registrado no Sul de Minas Gerais. As projeções mostraram que esse evento pode ocorrer novamente no futuro, com vários eventos consecutivos possivelmente acontecendo com mais frequência. No Pantanal, em 80 anos de dados observados, o ano hidrológico de 2019/2020 foi o mais seco observado, sendo a década de 1960 a mais seca. As projeções do SPI mostraram resultados diferentes, com o CORDEX projetando secas extremas até 2040, e os modelos Eta não projetando eventos extremos. As projeções do SPEI, por outro lado, mostraram eventos extremos de seca no final do século XXI, tanto para Eta quanto para CORDEX. Os dados observados e as projeções fornecem informações que ajudarão os tomadores de decisão e os legisladores na detecção de anomalias de seca em curto prazo e para análises de longo prazo, ajudando a reduzir os impactos de secas severas.Universidade Federal de LavrasPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Recursos HídricosUFLAbrasilDepartamento de Recursos HídricosMello, Carlos Rogério deOliveira, Luiz Fernando Coutinho deViola, Marcelo RibeiroJunqueira Júnior, José AlvesChou, Sin ChanSilva, Vinicius Oliveira2022-06-24T19:50:37Z2022-06-24T19:50:37Z2022-06-242022-04-30info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisapplication/pdfSILVA, V. O. Evaluating and projecting extreme meteorological droughts over two strategic regions of Brazil: the Brazilian Pantanal and Southern Minas Gerais. 2022. 97 p. Tese (Doutorado em Recursos Hídricos) – Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, 2022.http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/50340enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFLAinstname:Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)instacron:UFLA2023-04-10T14:37:42Zoai:localhost:1/50340Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.ufla.br/oai/requestnivaldo@ufla.br || repositorio.biblioteca@ufla.bropendoar:2023-04-10T14:37:42Repositório Institucional da UFLA - Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Evaluating and projecting extreme meteorological droughts over two strategic regions of Brazil: the Brazilian Pantanal and Southern Minas Gerais Avaliação e projeção de secas meteorológicas severas sobre duas regiões do Brasil: o pantanal e o sul de Minas Gerais |
title |
Evaluating and projecting extreme meteorological droughts over two strategic regions of Brazil: the Brazilian Pantanal and Southern Minas Gerais |
spellingShingle |
Evaluating and projecting extreme meteorological droughts over two strategic regions of Brazil: the Brazilian Pantanal and Southern Minas Gerais Silva, Vinicius Oliveira Índices de seca Áreas alagadas Projeções de secas Drought index Wetland Drought projections Recursos Hídricos |
title_short |
Evaluating and projecting extreme meteorological droughts over two strategic regions of Brazil: the Brazilian Pantanal and Southern Minas Gerais |
title_full |
Evaluating and projecting extreme meteorological droughts over two strategic regions of Brazil: the Brazilian Pantanal and Southern Minas Gerais |
title_fullStr |
Evaluating and projecting extreme meteorological droughts over two strategic regions of Brazil: the Brazilian Pantanal and Southern Minas Gerais |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluating and projecting extreme meteorological droughts over two strategic regions of Brazil: the Brazilian Pantanal and Southern Minas Gerais |
title_sort |
Evaluating and projecting extreme meteorological droughts over two strategic regions of Brazil: the Brazilian Pantanal and Southern Minas Gerais |
author |
Silva, Vinicius Oliveira |
author_facet |
Silva, Vinicius Oliveira |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Mello, Carlos Rogério de Oliveira, Luiz Fernando Coutinho de Viola, Marcelo Ribeiro Junqueira Júnior, José Alves Chou, Sin Chan |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Silva, Vinicius Oliveira |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Índices de seca Áreas alagadas Projeções de secas Drought index Wetland Drought projections Recursos Hídricos |
topic |
Índices de seca Áreas alagadas Projeções de secas Drought index Wetland Drought projections Recursos Hídricos |
description |
Brazil contains the largest volume of freshwater of any country in the world. However, this important natural resource is threatened by increases in water demand and water quality degradation, mainly as a result of anthropogenic pressures. As a result of this pressures, natural hazards, such as droughts are probably becoming more common in the future. In recent years, droughts have affected different regions of Brazil, impacting energy security, food production, and water consumption. In this study, the severity of droughts that hit two strategic regions of Brazil, Southern Minas Gerais and the Brazilian Pantanal were analyzed and were projected up to the end of the XXI century. The first, is well-known by its coffee crop production (more than 30% of country’s production) and hydroelectricity generation. The second, it is one of the largest wetland in the world and home for species and unique animals and plants. To access the severity of the droughts, the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration considering the hydrological years (SPI12) were investigated over time and space. Two different datasets were considered as observaded data in this study: data from the National Water and Sanitation Agency (ANA) and from the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Also, severe droughts were projected up to 2098/2099 using two RCM ensembles, from Eta project (BESM, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) and CORDEX project (CSIRO, IPSL-CM5A, GDFL, NorEMS1) under two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 2013/2014 hydrological year was the driest ever recorded in South of Minas Gerais. Projections have shown that this event might occur again in the future, with several consectuve events possibly happening more often. In Pantanal, in 80 years of observed data, the hydrological year of 2019/2020 was the driest observed in Pantanal, with 1960s decade been the worst. SPI projections have shown different results, with CORDEX projecting extreme droughts until 2040, and Eta models not showing extreme events. SPEI projections, otherwise, have shown extrem drought events in the end of the XXI century, for both, Eta and CORDEX. Observed data and projections give information that will help decision makers and stock holders in the detection of drought anomalies in short terms and for long term analyses. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-06-24T19:50:37Z 2022-06-24T19:50:37Z 2022-06-24 2022-04-30 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
format |
doctoralThesis |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
SILVA, V. O. Evaluating and projecting extreme meteorological droughts over two strategic regions of Brazil: the Brazilian Pantanal and Southern Minas Gerais. 2022. 97 p. Tese (Doutorado em Recursos Hídricos) – Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, 2022. http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/50340 |
identifier_str_mv |
SILVA, V. O. Evaluating and projecting extreme meteorological droughts over two strategic regions of Brazil: the Brazilian Pantanal and Southern Minas Gerais. 2022. 97 p. Tese (Doutorado em Recursos Hídricos) – Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, 2022. |
url |
http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/50340 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Lavras Programa de Pós-Graduação em Recursos Hídricos UFLA brasil Departamento de Recursos Hídricos |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Lavras Programa de Pós-Graduação em Recursos Hídricos UFLA brasil Departamento de Recursos Hídricos |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFLA instname:Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) instacron:UFLA |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) |
instacron_str |
UFLA |
institution |
UFLA |
reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UFLA |
collection |
Repositório Institucional da UFLA |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositório Institucional da UFLA - Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
nivaldo@ufla.br || repositorio.biblioteca@ufla.br |
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1807835155225640960 |