Mapeamento de chuvas intensas para o Estado do Tocantins

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Silva Neto, Virgilio Lourenço
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Viola, Marcelo Ribeiro, Mello, Carlos Rogério de, Alves, Marcos Vinicius Giongo, Silva, Demetrius David, Pereira, Silvio Bueno
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFLA
Texto Completo: http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/42311
Resumo: This study aimed to map heavy rainfall with durations of 10, 30, 720 and 1440 minutes, associated with return times of 10, 50 and 100 years for the Tocantins State. Historical series of 95 pluviometric stations located in the Tocantins State and nearby were applied, with standard period from 1983 to 2013. A geostatistical study was conducted, evaluating the spherical, exponential and gaussian semivariogram models, adjusted by the weighted least squares method. From this study, the model that presented the smallest average error based on cross-validation was applied to the mapping process by ordinary kriging. There was good performance of the geostatistical techniques, being possible to highlight the spherical model for the mapping of the annual maximum daily precipitation and the Gaussian model for the rains calculated by the methodology of disaggregation. It was also verified that the areas of intense rainfall of greater severity in the state are in the Bico do Papagaio (north), Bananal Island (southwest) and northwest of the state.
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spelling Mapeamento de chuvas intensas para o Estado do TocantinsHeavy rainfall mapping for Tocantins State, BrazilChuva de projetoPrecipitação máxima diária anualModelos GaussianosDesagregação de chuvasGeoestatísticaRainfall designAnnual maximum daily precipitationGaussian modelsRainfall breakdownGeostatisticsThis study aimed to map heavy rainfall with durations of 10, 30, 720 and 1440 minutes, associated with return times of 10, 50 and 100 years for the Tocantins State. Historical series of 95 pluviometric stations located in the Tocantins State and nearby were applied, with standard period from 1983 to 2013. A geostatistical study was conducted, evaluating the spherical, exponential and gaussian semivariogram models, adjusted by the weighted least squares method. From this study, the model that presented the smallest average error based on cross-validation was applied to the mapping process by ordinary kriging. There was good performance of the geostatistical techniques, being possible to highlight the spherical model for the mapping of the annual maximum daily precipitation and the Gaussian model for the rains calculated by the methodology of disaggregation. It was also verified that the areas of intense rainfall of greater severity in the state are in the Bico do Papagaio (north), Bananal Island (southwest) and northwest of the state.Este estudo teve como objetivo mapear chuvas intensas com durações de 10, 30, 720 e 1440 minutos, associadas aos tempos de retorno de 10, 50 e 100 anos, para o Estado do Tocantins. Foram aplicadas séries históricas de 95 postos pluviométricos localizados no Estado do Tocantins e proximidades, com período padronizado de 1983 a 2013. Foi conduzido um estudo geoestatístico, avaliando-se os modelos de semivariograma esférico, exponencial e gaussiano, ajustados pelo método dos mínimos quadrados ponderados. A partir deste estudo, o modelo que apresentou o menor erro médio com base na validação cruzada foi aplicado ao processo de mapeamento por krigagem ordinária. Houve bom desempenho das técnicas geoestatísticas, podendo-se destacar o modelo esférico para o mapeamento da precipitação máxima diária anual, e o modelo gaussiano para as chuvas calculadas pela metodologia de desagregação. Verificou-se ainda que as áreas de ocorrência das chuvas intensas de maior severidade no estado estão no Bico do Papagaio (norte), Ilha do Bananal (sudoeste) e noroeste do estado.Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia2020-08-10T18:47:42Z2020-08-10T18:47:42Z2020-03info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfSILVA NETO, V. L. et al. Mapeamento de chuvas intensas para o Estado do Tocantins. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, São Paulo, v. 35, n. 1, p. 1-11, mar. 2020.http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/42311Revista Brasileira de Meteorologiareponame:Repositório Institucional da UFLAinstname:Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)instacron:UFLAhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSilva Neto, Virgilio LourençoViola, Marcelo RibeiroMello, Carlos Rogério deAlves, Marcos Vinicius GiongoSilva, Demetrius DavidPereira, Silvio Buenopor2023-05-02T18:00:42Zoai:localhost:1/42311Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://repositorio.ufla.br/oai/requestnivaldo@ufla.br || repositorio.biblioteca@ufla.bropendoar:2023-05-02T18:00:42Repositório Institucional da UFLA - Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Mapeamento de chuvas intensas para o Estado do Tocantins
Heavy rainfall mapping for Tocantins State, Brazil
title Mapeamento de chuvas intensas para o Estado do Tocantins
spellingShingle Mapeamento de chuvas intensas para o Estado do Tocantins
Silva Neto, Virgilio Lourenço
Chuva de projeto
Precipitação máxima diária anual
Modelos Gaussianos
Desagregação de chuvas
Geoestatística
Rainfall design
Annual maximum daily precipitation
Gaussian models
Rainfall breakdown
Geostatistics
title_short Mapeamento de chuvas intensas para o Estado do Tocantins
title_full Mapeamento de chuvas intensas para o Estado do Tocantins
title_fullStr Mapeamento de chuvas intensas para o Estado do Tocantins
title_full_unstemmed Mapeamento de chuvas intensas para o Estado do Tocantins
title_sort Mapeamento de chuvas intensas para o Estado do Tocantins
author Silva Neto, Virgilio Lourenço
author_facet Silva Neto, Virgilio Lourenço
Viola, Marcelo Ribeiro
Mello, Carlos Rogério de
Alves, Marcos Vinicius Giongo
Silva, Demetrius David
Pereira, Silvio Bueno
author_role author
author2 Viola, Marcelo Ribeiro
Mello, Carlos Rogério de
Alves, Marcos Vinicius Giongo
Silva, Demetrius David
Pereira, Silvio Bueno
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Silva Neto, Virgilio Lourenço
Viola, Marcelo Ribeiro
Mello, Carlos Rogério de
Alves, Marcos Vinicius Giongo
Silva, Demetrius David
Pereira, Silvio Bueno
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Chuva de projeto
Precipitação máxima diária anual
Modelos Gaussianos
Desagregação de chuvas
Geoestatística
Rainfall design
Annual maximum daily precipitation
Gaussian models
Rainfall breakdown
Geostatistics
topic Chuva de projeto
Precipitação máxima diária anual
Modelos Gaussianos
Desagregação de chuvas
Geoestatística
Rainfall design
Annual maximum daily precipitation
Gaussian models
Rainfall breakdown
Geostatistics
description This study aimed to map heavy rainfall with durations of 10, 30, 720 and 1440 minutes, associated with return times of 10, 50 and 100 years for the Tocantins State. Historical series of 95 pluviometric stations located in the Tocantins State and nearby were applied, with standard period from 1983 to 2013. A geostatistical study was conducted, evaluating the spherical, exponential and gaussian semivariogram models, adjusted by the weighted least squares method. From this study, the model that presented the smallest average error based on cross-validation was applied to the mapping process by ordinary kriging. There was good performance of the geostatistical techniques, being possible to highlight the spherical model for the mapping of the annual maximum daily precipitation and the Gaussian model for the rains calculated by the methodology of disaggregation. It was also verified that the areas of intense rainfall of greater severity in the state are in the Bico do Papagaio (north), Bananal Island (southwest) and northwest of the state.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-08-10T18:47:42Z
2020-08-10T18:47:42Z
2020-03
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv SILVA NETO, V. L. et al. Mapeamento de chuvas intensas para o Estado do Tocantins. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, São Paulo, v. 35, n. 1, p. 1-11, mar. 2020.
http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/42311
identifier_str_mv SILVA NETO, V. L. et al. Mapeamento de chuvas intensas para o Estado do Tocantins. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, São Paulo, v. 35, n. 1, p. 1-11, mar. 2020.
url http://repositorio.ufla.br/jspui/handle/1/42311
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia
reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFLA
instname:Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)
instacron:UFLA
instname_str Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)
instacron_str UFLA
institution UFLA
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da UFLA
collection Repositório Institucional da UFLA
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional da UFLA - Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv nivaldo@ufla.br || repositorio.biblioteca@ufla.br
_version_ 1807835198849548288

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