Uncertainty and industrial production in Brazil: A sectorial approach

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Zerbinatti, Ariana Stephanie
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Rocha, Bruno de Paula, Abras, Ana
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Nova Economia (Online)
Texto Completo: https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/5957
Resumo: Abstract This paper aims to analyze the effects of uncertainty on Brazilian industrial production. We estimate fixed effects panels considering 17 subsectors of manufacturing activity. Also, we calculate two types of proxies to uncertainty: (i) 17 subsectorial indexes and (ii) two aggregate indexes, in order to measure industrial uncertainty. The results showed that the different kinds of uncertainty negatively affect industrial production. Despite the fact that subsectorial uncertainty does not impact differently the types of goods (capital, intermediate, durable and nondurable goods), there is evidence that macroeconomic uncertainty has a distinct effect among them, being the capital goods production more negatively affected. Keywords: Uncertainty. Economic Activity. Industrial Production. Panel data.                         JEL Codes: C33, E00.
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spelling Uncertainty and industrial production in Brazil: A sectorial approachIncerteza e atividade industrial brasileira: uma abordagem setorialAbstract This paper aims to analyze the effects of uncertainty on Brazilian industrial production. We estimate fixed effects panels considering 17 subsectors of manufacturing activity. Also, we calculate two types of proxies to uncertainty: (i) 17 subsectorial indexes and (ii) two aggregate indexes, in order to measure industrial uncertainty. The results showed that the different kinds of uncertainty negatively affect industrial production. Despite the fact that subsectorial uncertainty does not impact differently the types of goods (capital, intermediate, durable and nondurable goods), there is evidence that macroeconomic uncertainty has a distinct effect among them, being the capital goods production more negatively affected. Keywords: Uncertainty. Economic Activity. Industrial Production. Panel data.                         JEL Codes: C33, E00.Resumo Este artigo analisa os efeitos da incerteza sobre a produção industrial brasileira. A investigação foi realizada por meio da estimação de painéis de efeitos fixos para 17 subsetores da indústria de transformação. Foram construídos indicadores com o intuito de captar a incerteza em cada um dos 17 segmentos e também dois indicadores agregados, de forma a mensurar a incerteza do setor industrial como um todo. Além disso, também foi verificado se os efeitos da incerteza, tanto setorial como industrial agregada e macroeconômica, apresentam intensidades distintas entre as categorias de uso. Os resultados sugerem que a incerteza dos subsetores e a industrial agregada afetam negativamente a produção e que os indicadores subsetoriais trazem informações adicionais às incertezas macroeconômica e industrial agregada. Ademais, há evidências de que a incerteza macroeconômica afeta de forma distinta as categorias de uso, sendo a produção de bens de capital mais negativamente impactada. Palavras-chave: Incerteza. Atividade econômica. Produção industrial. Dados em painel. Códigos JEL: C33, E00.Departamento de Ciências Econômicas da UFMG2021-12-07info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/5957Nova Economia; Vol. 31 No. 2 (2021): Revista Nova Economia; 455-485Nova Economia; v. 31 n. 2 (2021): Revista Nova Economia; 455-4851980-53810103-6351reponame:Nova Economia (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGporhttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/5957/3603Copyright (c) 2021 Ariana Stephanie Zerbinatti, Bruno de Paula Rocha, Ana Abrashttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessZerbinatti, Ariana StephanieRocha, Bruno de PaulaAbras, Ana2021-12-07T21:57:07Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/5957Revistahttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomiaPUBhttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/oai||ne@face.ufmg.br1980-53810103-6351opendoar:2021-12-07T21:57:07Nova Economia (Online) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Uncertainty and industrial production in Brazil: A sectorial approach
Incerteza e atividade industrial brasileira: uma abordagem setorial
title Uncertainty and industrial production in Brazil: A sectorial approach
spellingShingle Uncertainty and industrial production in Brazil: A sectorial approach
Zerbinatti, Ariana Stephanie
title_short Uncertainty and industrial production in Brazil: A sectorial approach
title_full Uncertainty and industrial production in Brazil: A sectorial approach
title_fullStr Uncertainty and industrial production in Brazil: A sectorial approach
title_full_unstemmed Uncertainty and industrial production in Brazil: A sectorial approach
title_sort Uncertainty and industrial production in Brazil: A sectorial approach
author Zerbinatti, Ariana Stephanie
author_facet Zerbinatti, Ariana Stephanie
Rocha, Bruno de Paula
Abras, Ana
author_role author
author2 Rocha, Bruno de Paula
Abras, Ana
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Zerbinatti, Ariana Stephanie
Rocha, Bruno de Paula
Abras, Ana
description Abstract This paper aims to analyze the effects of uncertainty on Brazilian industrial production. We estimate fixed effects panels considering 17 subsectors of manufacturing activity. Also, we calculate two types of proxies to uncertainty: (i) 17 subsectorial indexes and (ii) two aggregate indexes, in order to measure industrial uncertainty. The results showed that the different kinds of uncertainty negatively affect industrial production. Despite the fact that subsectorial uncertainty does not impact differently the types of goods (capital, intermediate, durable and nondurable goods), there is evidence that macroeconomic uncertainty has a distinct effect among them, being the capital goods production more negatively affected. Keywords: Uncertainty. Economic Activity. Industrial Production. Panel data.                         JEL Codes: C33, E00.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-12-07
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/5957
url https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/5957
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/5957/3603
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Ariana Stephanie Zerbinatti, Bruno de Paula Rocha, Ana Abras
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Ariana Stephanie Zerbinatti, Bruno de Paula Rocha, Ana Abras
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Ciências Econômicas da UFMG
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Ciências Econômicas da UFMG
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Nova Economia; Vol. 31 No. 2 (2021): Revista Nova Economia; 455-485
Nova Economia; v. 31 n. 2 (2021): Revista Nova Economia; 455-485
1980-5381
0103-6351
reponame:Nova Economia (Online)
instname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
instacron:UFMG
instname_str Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
instacron_str UFMG
institution UFMG
reponame_str Nova Economia (Online)
collection Nova Economia (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Nova Economia (Online) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||ne@face.ufmg.br
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