Growth and demographic change: An application of the Goodwin model for OECD countries (1960-2010)

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Silva, Daniel Nogueira
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Morrone, Henrique
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Nova Economia (Online)
Texto Completo: https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/6054
Resumo: Abstract The objective of this article is to evaluate the empirical adherence of the Goodwin Model (1967), when considering the inclusion in this model of a social security system characterized by a homogeneous rate of exogenously determined social security tax and adjustable individual pension levels for a determinant number of retirees. The empirical analysis is applied to a set of economies developed in the period from 1960 to 2010. Based on the data and on the econometric methodology used, the results found point to a better empirical adjustment of the Goodwin model (1967), which indicates that the Population aging can affect economic cycles through the social security system. Keywords: Goodwin's model, populations ageing, OECD. JEL Codes: O47, J26, O15.
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spelling Growth and demographic change: An application of the Goodwin model for OECD countries (1960-2010)Crescimento e mudança demográfica: uma aplicação do modelo de Goodwin para países da OCDE (1960-2010)Abstract The objective of this article is to evaluate the empirical adherence of the Goodwin Model (1967), when considering the inclusion in this model of a social security system characterized by a homogeneous rate of exogenously determined social security tax and adjustable individual pension levels for a determinant number of retirees. The empirical analysis is applied to a set of economies developed in the period from 1960 to 2010. Based on the data and on the econometric methodology used, the results found point to a better empirical adjustment of the Goodwin model (1967), which indicates that the Population aging can affect economic cycles through the social security system. Keywords: Goodwin's model, populations ageing, OECD. JEL Codes: O47, J26, O15.Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é avaliar a aderência empírica do modelo de Goodwin (1967) quando se incorpora a esse modelo um sistema de seguridade social caracterizada por uma alíquota homogênea de imposto previdenciária exogenamente determinada e níveis de pensão individuais ajustáveis para um determinando número de aposentados. A análise empírica é aplicada para um conjunto de economias desenvolvidas e abrange o período de 1960 a 2010. Com base nos dados e na metodologia econométrica utilizada, os resultados encontrados apontam para um melhor ajustamento empírico do modelo de Goodwin (1967), indicando que o envelhecimento populacional pode afetar os ciclos econômicos via sistema de seguridade social. Palavras-chave: modelo de Goodwin, envelhecimento populacional, OCDE. Códigos JEL: O47, J26, O15.Departamento de Ciências Econômicas da UFMG2021-07-19info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/6054Nova Economia; Vol. 31 No. 1 (2021): Revista Nova Economia; 39-66Nova Economia; v. 31 n. 1 (2021): Revista Nova Economia; 39-661980-53810103-6351reponame:Nova Economia (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGporhttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/6054/3370Copyright (c) 2021 Daniel Nogueira Silva, Henrique Morronehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSilva, Daniel NogueiraMorrone, Henrique2022-02-22T18:56:54Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/6054Revistahttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomiaPUBhttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/oai||ne@face.ufmg.br1980-53810103-6351opendoar:2022-02-22T18:56:54Nova Economia (Online) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Growth and demographic change: An application of the Goodwin model for OECD countries (1960-2010)
Crescimento e mudança demográfica: uma aplicação do modelo de Goodwin para países da OCDE (1960-2010)
title Growth and demographic change: An application of the Goodwin model for OECD countries (1960-2010)
spellingShingle Growth and demographic change: An application of the Goodwin model for OECD countries (1960-2010)
Silva, Daniel Nogueira
title_short Growth and demographic change: An application of the Goodwin model for OECD countries (1960-2010)
title_full Growth and demographic change: An application of the Goodwin model for OECD countries (1960-2010)
title_fullStr Growth and demographic change: An application of the Goodwin model for OECD countries (1960-2010)
title_full_unstemmed Growth and demographic change: An application of the Goodwin model for OECD countries (1960-2010)
title_sort Growth and demographic change: An application of the Goodwin model for OECD countries (1960-2010)
author Silva, Daniel Nogueira
author_facet Silva, Daniel Nogueira
Morrone, Henrique
author_role author
author2 Morrone, Henrique
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Silva, Daniel Nogueira
Morrone, Henrique
description Abstract The objective of this article is to evaluate the empirical adherence of the Goodwin Model (1967), when considering the inclusion in this model of a social security system characterized by a homogeneous rate of exogenously determined social security tax and adjustable individual pension levels for a determinant number of retirees. The empirical analysis is applied to a set of economies developed in the period from 1960 to 2010. Based on the data and on the econometric methodology used, the results found point to a better empirical adjustment of the Goodwin model (1967), which indicates that the Population aging can affect economic cycles through the social security system. Keywords: Goodwin's model, populations ageing, OECD. JEL Codes: O47, J26, O15.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-07-19
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/6054
url https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/6054
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/6054/3370
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Daniel Nogueira Silva, Henrique Morrone
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Daniel Nogueira Silva, Henrique Morrone
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Ciências Econômicas da UFMG
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Ciências Econômicas da UFMG
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Nova Economia; Vol. 31 No. 1 (2021): Revista Nova Economia; 39-66
Nova Economia; v. 31 n. 1 (2021): Revista Nova Economia; 39-66
1980-5381
0103-6351
reponame:Nova Economia (Online)
instname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
instacron:UFMG
instname_str Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
instacron_str UFMG
institution UFMG
reponame_str Nova Economia (Online)
collection Nova Economia (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Nova Economia (Online) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||ne@face.ufmg.br
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