Complexity systems and middle-income trap: the long-term roots of Latin America underdevelopment

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Cimini, Fenanda
Data de Publicação: 2021
Outros Autores: Britto, Jorge, Costa Ribeiro, Leonardo
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: eng
Título da fonte: Nova Economia (Online)
Texto Completo: https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/6190
Resumo: Abstract Our intent is to reinterpret the concept of middle-income trap using the language of the complex system approach to refer to the unpredictability, non-linearity and the enormous range of possible behaviors of economic development in the long-term time series. By redefining the concept of trap in those terms, we propose to shed light on the institutional background of economic development. In order to advance our argument, we conduct a case study of Latin America, a region that has presented an unstable and non-linear economic trajectory across the 20th century. We argue that the combination between the colonial economic legacy and the political fragmentation amid the process of independence shaped the socio-economic structure and institutional capabilities for years to come, restricting the possibilities of overcoming underdevelopment.   Keywords: middle-income trap, complex system, institutions, Latin America, underdevelopment JEL Codes: 010, 014, O33, B15, C32
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spelling Complexity systems and middle-income trap: the long-term roots of Latin America underdevelopmentSistemas complexos e armadilha da renda media: as raízes de longo prazo do subdesenvolvimento latino-americanoAbstract Our intent is to reinterpret the concept of middle-income trap using the language of the complex system approach to refer to the unpredictability, non-linearity and the enormous range of possible behaviors of economic development in the long-term time series. By redefining the concept of trap in those terms, we propose to shed light on the institutional background of economic development. In order to advance our argument, we conduct a case study of Latin America, a region that has presented an unstable and non-linear economic trajectory across the 20th century. We argue that the combination between the colonial economic legacy and the political fragmentation amid the process of independence shaped the socio-economic structure and institutional capabilities for years to come, restricting the possibilities of overcoming underdevelopment.   Keywords: middle-income trap, complex system, institutions, Latin America, underdevelopment JEL Codes: 010, 014, O33, B15, C32El artículo analiza los procesos históricos que han marcado la trayectoria económica de América Latina. Sostiene que la combinación entre la fragmentación política que tuvo lugar junto con el proceso de independencia y la estructura socioeconómica que absorbió los impactos de la Revolución Industrial constituye el punto de partida para el establecimiento de la "trampa del subdesarrollo", recientemente tratada en el literatura como una "trampa de ingresos medios". En particular, se centra en tres procesos combinados: (i) fragmentación política, (ii) falta de un arreglo institucional capaz de absorber las nuevas tecnologías derivadas de la Revolución Industrial y, quizás como consecuencia, (iii) una integración pasiva en la división internacional del trabajo reconfigurada por la revolución industrial. Además de rastrear las raíces a largo plazo de la trampa de ingresos medios en América Latina, el artículo también busca a enriquecer el debate al proponer un nuevo método para describir el ritmo, la estabilidad y otras propiedades a largo plazo que caracterizan la trayectoria del subdesarrollo. Basado en las herramientas de la teoría de sistemas complejos, busca asociar la evolución cuantitativa de los indicadores utilizados tradicionalmente en análisis comparativos de procesos de desarrollo con medidas que intentan capturar propiedades específicas de esas trayectorias. La conclusión es que las condiciones históricas son importantes para diferenciar los diferentes caminos del desarrollo económico y la diferencia entre las economías avanzadas y en desarrollo ha sido prominente a lo largo del siglo XX, como lo muestra el análisis de Hurst Exponent de la dinámica del PIB per cápita de 1900 a 2008.Resumo  O artigo busca reinterpretar o conceito de armadilha da renda média utilizando a linguagem de sistemas complexos para abordar a imprevisibilidade, a não linearidade e a enorme variedade de comportamentos possíveis de desenvolvimento econômico em séries temporais de longo prazo. Ao redefinir o conceito de armadilha nesses termos, propomos lançar luz sobre o contexto institucional do desenvolvimento econômico. Para avançar o argumento, realizamos um estudo de caso da América Latina, uma região que apresentou uma trajetória económica instável e não-linear ao longo do século XX. Argumentamos que a combinação entre o legado econômico colonial e a fragmentação política em meio ao processo de independência, moldou a estrutura socioeconómica e as capacidades institucionais futuras da região, restringindo as possibilidades de superação do subdesenvolvimento.   Palavras-chave: armadilha da renda média, sistemas complexos, instituições, América latina, subdesenvolvimento Código JEL: 010, 014, O33, B15, C32Departamento de Ciências Econômicas da UFMG2021-03-29info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/6190Nova Economia; Vol. 30 No. Especial (2020): Special Issue "Middle Income Traps"; 1225-1256Nova Economia; v. 30 n. Especial (2020): Número Especial "Middle Income Traps"; 1225-12561980-53810103-6351reponame:Nova Economia (Online)instname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGenghttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/6190/3355Copyright (c) 2021 Fenanda Cimini, Jorge Britto, Leonardo Costa Ribeirohttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCimini, FenandaBritto, JorgeCosta Ribeiro, Leonardo2021-04-22T19:46:39Zoai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/6190Revistahttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomiaPUBhttps://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/oai||ne@face.ufmg.br1980-53810103-6351opendoar:2021-04-22T19:46:39Nova Economia (Online) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Complexity systems and middle-income trap: the long-term roots of Latin America underdevelopment
Sistemas complexos e armadilha da renda media: as raízes de longo prazo do subdesenvolvimento latino-americano
title Complexity systems and middle-income trap: the long-term roots of Latin America underdevelopment
spellingShingle Complexity systems and middle-income trap: the long-term roots of Latin America underdevelopment
Cimini, Fenanda
title_short Complexity systems and middle-income trap: the long-term roots of Latin America underdevelopment
title_full Complexity systems and middle-income trap: the long-term roots of Latin America underdevelopment
title_fullStr Complexity systems and middle-income trap: the long-term roots of Latin America underdevelopment
title_full_unstemmed Complexity systems and middle-income trap: the long-term roots of Latin America underdevelopment
title_sort Complexity systems and middle-income trap: the long-term roots of Latin America underdevelopment
author Cimini, Fenanda
author_facet Cimini, Fenanda
Britto, Jorge
Costa Ribeiro, Leonardo
author_role author
author2 Britto, Jorge
Costa Ribeiro, Leonardo
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Cimini, Fenanda
Britto, Jorge
Costa Ribeiro, Leonardo
description Abstract Our intent is to reinterpret the concept of middle-income trap using the language of the complex system approach to refer to the unpredictability, non-linearity and the enormous range of possible behaviors of economic development in the long-term time series. By redefining the concept of trap in those terms, we propose to shed light on the institutional background of economic development. In order to advance our argument, we conduct a case study of Latin America, a region that has presented an unstable and non-linear economic trajectory across the 20th century. We argue that the combination between the colonial economic legacy and the political fragmentation amid the process of independence shaped the socio-economic structure and institutional capabilities for years to come, restricting the possibilities of overcoming underdevelopment.   Keywords: middle-income trap, complex system, institutions, Latin America, underdevelopment JEL Codes: 010, 014, O33, B15, C32
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-03-29
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/6190
url https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/6190
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/6190/3355
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Fenanda Cimini, Jorge Britto, Leonardo Costa Ribeiro
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2021 Fenanda Cimini, Jorge Britto, Leonardo Costa Ribeiro
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Ciências Econômicas da UFMG
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Ciências Econômicas da UFMG
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Nova Economia; Vol. 30 No. Especial (2020): Special Issue "Middle Income Traps"; 1225-1256
Nova Economia; v. 30 n. Especial (2020): Número Especial "Middle Income Traps"; 1225-1256
1980-5381
0103-6351
reponame:Nova Economia (Online)
instname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
instacron:UFMG
instname_str Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
instacron_str UFMG
institution UFMG
reponame_str Nova Economia (Online)
collection Nova Economia (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Nova Economia (Online) - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||ne@face.ufmg.br
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