Cardim de Carvalho and the post keynesians on fiscal policy: the economic consequences of austerity
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFMG |
Texto Completo: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/198055272429 http://hdl.handle.net/1843/36973 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4583-4346 |
Resumo: | This paper discusses the role of austerity policies in the long-run path of the economy, from a Post Keynesian perspective. Our starting points are the role of aggregate demand to determine output in the short and long run and the importance of fiscal policy as a tool for demand stabilization. As main theoretical elements, the paper uses the concept of corridor of stability, adapted by Cardim de Carvalho (2016), and Keynes’s model of shifting equilibrium, as presented by Kregel (1976). We argue that adverse output shocks, followed by contractionary policies that prolong the recession, have an impact on the propensity to consume, liquidity preference, and the marginal efficiency of capital, and thus define a new growth trend for the economy. Not only the depth but also the length of the recession matters if the system is to absorb shocks and return to its previous growth trend. As a result of long recessions, a new trend may arise and be acknowledged as “normal”, thus defining a new corridor of stability. |
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2021-07-26T19:18:48Z2021-07-26T19:18:48Z2020242117http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/19805527242919805527http://hdl.handle.net/1843/36973https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4583-4346This paper discusses the role of austerity policies in the long-run path of the economy, from a Post Keynesian perspective. Our starting points are the role of aggregate demand to determine output in the short and long run and the importance of fiscal policy as a tool for demand stabilization. As main theoretical elements, the paper uses the concept of corridor of stability, adapted by Cardim de Carvalho (2016), and Keynes’s model of shifting equilibrium, as presented by Kregel (1976). We argue that adverse output shocks, followed by contractionary policies that prolong the recession, have an impact on the propensity to consume, liquidity preference, and the marginal efficiency of capital, and thus define a new growth trend for the economy. Not only the depth but also the length of the recession matters if the system is to absorb shocks and return to its previous growth trend. As a result of long recessions, a new trend may arise and be acknowledged as “normal”, thus defining a new corridor of stability.Este artigo procura discutir os efeitos de políticas de austeridade fiscal sobre a trajetória da economia no longo prazo a partir de uma perspectiva pós-keynesiana. Toma como pontos de partida o papel da demanda agregada na determinação do produto no curto e longo prazo e a importância da política fiscal como instrumento de estabilização do produto. O artigo utiliza como elementos teóricos o conceito de corredor de estabilidade adaptado por Cardim de Carvalho (2016) e o modelo de equilíbrio móvel de Keynes, tal como apresentado por Kregel (1976). Argumenta-se que choques adversos sobre o produto, seguidos de políticas restritivas que prolongam a recessão, impactam a propensão a consumir, a preferência pela liquidez e a eficiência marginal do capital, gerando uma nova trajetória de longo prazo para a economia. Não apenas a profundidade da crise, mas também sua duração importa para a possibilidade de o sistema absorver os choques e retornar à sua trajetória anterior de crescimento. Recessões longas levam a uma nova trajetória reconhecida como “normal”, em torno da qual um novo corredor de estabilidade se estabelece.engUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisUFMGBrasilFCE - DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS ECONÔMICASRevista de Economia ContemporâneaPolítica tributáriaDespesa pública - Política governamentalEquilíbrio econômicoFiscal policyAusterityUnemployment equilibriumCardim de Carvalho and the post keynesians on fiscal policy: the economic consequences of austerityCardim de Carvalho e os pós-keynesianos sobre política fiscal: as consequências econômicas da austeridadeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttps://revistas.ufrj.br/index.php/rec/article/download/37552/20565Gilberto de Assis Libânioapplication/pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82118https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/36973/2/license.txtcda590c95a0b51b4d15f60c9642ca272MD52ORIGINALCardim de Carvalho and the post keynesians on fiscal policy the economic consequences of austerity.pdfCardim de Carvalho and the post keynesians on fiscal policy the economic consequences of austerity.pdfapplication/pdf135595https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/36973/1/Cardim%20de%20Carvalho%20and%20the%20post%20keynesians%20on%20fiscal%20policy%20the%20economic%20consequences%20of%20austerity.pdf2dec583511b51b37d0844e4215863c2cMD511843/369732021-07-26 16:18:48.718oai:repositorio.ufmg.br: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ório de PublicaçõesPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2021-07-26T19:18:48Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Cardim de Carvalho and the post keynesians on fiscal policy: the economic consequences of austerity |
dc.title.alternative.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Cardim de Carvalho e os pós-keynesianos sobre política fiscal: as consequências econômicas da austeridade |
title |
Cardim de Carvalho and the post keynesians on fiscal policy: the economic consequences of austerity |
spellingShingle |
Cardim de Carvalho and the post keynesians on fiscal policy: the economic consequences of austerity Gilberto de Assis Libânio Fiscal policy Austerity Unemployment equilibrium Política tributária Despesa pública - Política governamental Equilíbrio econômico |
title_short |
Cardim de Carvalho and the post keynesians on fiscal policy: the economic consequences of austerity |
title_full |
Cardim de Carvalho and the post keynesians on fiscal policy: the economic consequences of austerity |
title_fullStr |
Cardim de Carvalho and the post keynesians on fiscal policy: the economic consequences of austerity |
title_full_unstemmed |
Cardim de Carvalho and the post keynesians on fiscal policy: the economic consequences of austerity |
title_sort |
Cardim de Carvalho and the post keynesians on fiscal policy: the economic consequences of austerity |
author |
Gilberto de Assis Libânio |
author_facet |
Gilberto de Assis Libânio |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Gilberto de Assis Libânio |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Fiscal policy Austerity Unemployment equilibrium |
topic |
Fiscal policy Austerity Unemployment equilibrium Política tributária Despesa pública - Política governamental Equilíbrio econômico |
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Política tributária Despesa pública - Política governamental Equilíbrio econômico |
description |
This paper discusses the role of austerity policies in the long-run path of the economy, from a Post Keynesian perspective. Our starting points are the role of aggregate demand to determine output in the short and long run and the importance of fiscal policy as a tool for demand stabilization. As main theoretical elements, the paper uses the concept of corridor of stability, adapted by Cardim de Carvalho (2016), and Keynes’s model of shifting equilibrium, as presented by Kregel (1976). We argue that adverse output shocks, followed by contractionary policies that prolong the recession, have an impact on the propensity to consume, liquidity preference, and the marginal efficiency of capital, and thus define a new growth trend for the economy. Not only the depth but also the length of the recession matters if the system is to absorb shocks and return to its previous growth trend. As a result of long recessions, a new trend may arise and be acknowledged as “normal”, thus defining a new corridor of stability. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2020 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2021-07-26T19:18:48Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2021-07-26T19:18:48Z |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
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publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/1843/36973 |
dc.identifier.doi.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/198055272429 |
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
19805527 |
dc.identifier.orcid.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4583-4346 |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/198055272429 http://hdl.handle.net/1843/36973 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4583-4346 |
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19805527 |
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eng |
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eng |
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Revista de Economia Contemporânea |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
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application/pdf |
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Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
UFMG |
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv |
Brasil |
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv |
FCE - DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS ECONÔMICAS |
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Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
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