Mudanças estruturais e impactos regionais na economia brasileira 2003-2008: simulações históricas em equilíbrio geral computável

• Autor(a) principal: Héder Carlos de Oliveira
• Data de Publicação: 2013
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFMG
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/33909
• topic: Economia Regional; Mudanças Estruturais; Simulações Históricas; Simulações de Decomposição; Equilíbrio Geral Computável; Economia regional; Economia; Brasil; Disparidades regionais

The evolution of indicators of regional inequality in Brazil presents itself as an obstacle to the development process of the national economy. This environment makes it even more latent for the investigation for solutions to reduce inequalities between regions of Brazil. In this sense, to understand why the performance of some economies are better than others, which are the determinants of these different performances, and to forecast the results of policies aimed at reducing regional differences increasingly become of interest among regional scientists. Recently a new method has emerged for uncovering the factors driving regional disparities in growth performance. The method involves historical and decomposition analysis with a multiregional computable general equilibrium model. The first simulation, in which observed changes in economic variables (such as changes in GDP, capital stocks, household consumption, imports, and exports) are imposed on the model, and changes in structural variables (such as technologies and preferences) are calculated endogenously. The second simulation is the decomposition simulation, in which the contributions of those structural changes to the economic performance of the economy over the period under study are evaluated. This type of analysis provides much richer insights into structural changes in the economy than the standard growth accounting framework. Simulation results show that there have been significant structural changes in the Brazilian economy over the period. Technical changes, improvement of the terms of trade, increase in the marginal propensity to consume and increase in the investment-capital ratios were some of the structural changes that helped explain the performance of the Brazilian economy during the period under study. The results of the simulations can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of economic policies or to inform forecasts into the future.