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2023-11-08T21:02:05Z2023-11-08T21:02:05Z201728http://hdl.handle.net/1843/60664Global climate and environmental change have increased in the last decades. Increased health stress is one of the most alarming consequences of these changes. Although many studies have tried to estimate the direct and indirect consequences of a warmer and drier environment for the economy, both at a global and local scale, a smaller number of studies have addressed the mid and long term health implications of these changes at a regional level. Building on their previous work, this study takes a multi-stage approach to estimate the climate-related consequences on cardiovascular/respiratory and infectious/vector-borne diseases, morbi/mortality, and labor supply in Brazil. Combining Spatial Bayes Smoothing, Spatial Econometrics, Global Burden of Disease data, and a Regional Computable General Equilibrium model, this study estimates the future development of climate-sensitive health disorders, their implications for morbi-mortality, and the consequences for labor supply and productivity for the Brazilian states and regions from 2010 to 2040. Our results suggest that partial effects of climate change on health and labor supply is higher than the total impact (from general equilibrium estimates). Increased morbi-mortality and labor loss would be higher for vector-borne and infectious than for non-communicable diseases, and mostly concentrated in less developed regions of the country.As alterações climáticas e ambientais globais aumentaram nas últimas décadas. O aumento do estresse sobre a saúde é uma das consequências mais alarmantes destas mudanças. Embora muitos estudos tenham tentado estimar as consequências directas e indirectas de um ambiente mais quente e mais seco para a economia, tanto a nível global e à escala local, um número menor de estudos abordou as implicações para a saúde a médio e longo prazo estas mudanças a nível regional. Com base em seu trabalho anterior, este estudo adota uma abordagem em vários estágios estimar as consequências relacionadas com o clima nas doenças cardiovasculares/respiratórias e infecciosas/transmitidas por vetores. doenças, morbimortalidade e oferta de trabalho no Brasil. Combinando Suavização Spatial Bayes, Spatial Econometria, dados da carga global de doenças e um modelo regional de equilíbrio geral computável, este estudo estima o desenvolvimento futuro de distúrbios de saúde sensíveis ao clima, suas implicações para morbimortalidade e as consequências para a oferta e produtividade do trabalho para os estados e regiões brasileiras de 2010 a 2040. Nossos resultados sugerem que os efeitos parciais das mudanças climáticas na saúde e no trabalho a oferta é superior ao impacto total (a partir de estimativas de equilíbrio geral). Aumento da morbimortalidade e a perda de mão de obra seria maior para doenças transmitidas por vetores e infecciosas do que para doenças não transmissíveis, e concentrado principalmente nas regiões menos desenvolvidas do país.engUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisUFMGBrasilFCE - DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS ECONÔMICASInternational Input-Output Association ConferenceAmbienteClimaEconomiaImpactosClimate ChangeHealthLabor SupplyBrazilComputable General Equilibrium ModelRegional ImpactsRegional impacts of climate change on health and labor in Brazil.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObjecthttps://www.anpec.org.br/encontro/2018/submissao/files_I/i10-4b1a1e693ce89b6da0b73eb2a93b034e.pdfGilvan R GuedesKenya NoronhaMônica Viegas AndradeEdson DominguesAline Magalhães SouzaFlaviane SantiagoKenia SouzaDebora Cardosoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGLICENSELicense.txtLicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82042https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/60664/1/License.txtfa505098d172de0bc8864fc1287ffe22MD51ORIGINALRegional Impacts of Future Climate Change on Health and....pdfRegional Impacts of Future Climate Change on Health and....pdfapplication/pdf5158225https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/60664/2/Regional%20Impacts%20of%20Future%20Climate%20Change%20on%20Health%20and....pdfa7f2c7757773234559078e4b6c35cc27MD521843/606642023-11-08 18:10:09.463oai:repositorio.ufmg.br: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Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2023-11-08T21:10:09Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false
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