Projeções dos impactos econômicos decorrentes das mudanças demográficas no Brasil para o período de 2010 a 2050

• Autor(a) principal: Flaviane Souza Santiago
• Data de Publicação: 2014
• Tipo de documento: Tese
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFMG
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/AMSA-9KTPGW
• topic: Equilíbrio geral computável; Grupo etário; Modelo CLAD; Comportamento do consumo; Mudanças demográficas; Demografia Brasil Aspectos econômicos; Economia Previsão Brasil 2010-2050; Brasil População 2010-2050

One of the possible consequences of the demographic and epidemiological transition that Brazilian population has experienced is the change in the consumption pattern of households. Empirically, it can be observed that consumer spent significantly change over the life cycle, then, the understanding of changes in consumption patterns associated with aging is essential due to its impacts on the productive structure of the country. In this context, the main aim of this thesis is to analyze the long-term changes in the production structure and in sectorial composition from Brazil resulting from the change in consumption patterns. To analyze these effects, this work proposes a methodology to disaggregate the spent on goods and services (that are available in the Consumer Expenditure Survey of Brazil POF 2002/2003) by age groups: adults (between 15-49 and 50-59 years old), children (aged 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14 years old) and elderlies (aged 60-69 and 70 or older). Firstly, the effect of age on the spent for 15 goods and services from POF is estimated. This was done through the semi-parametric method named Censored Least Absolute Deviation. Then, the semielasticities of household typologies were used to transform the vector of household consumption, from the input-output matrix, into disaggregated vectors by age group. From this disaggregation, it was possible to work with demographic scenarios using a Computable General Equilibrium model. This model allows highlighting all sectorial linkage effects that changes in the vector of consumption - resulting from demographic changes - will affect in Brazilian economy until 2050. The projected results indicated an increase in demand for some goods and services, especially for health services (medicines, hospital care and health insurance), besides services provided to families and energy consumption; and a decrease in others, especially in food and education sectors.