Caracterização e avaliação do estresse hidrológico da bacia do rio Paraopeba por meio de simulação chuva-vazão de cenários atuais e prospectivos de ocupação e uso do solo utilizando um modelo hidrologico distribuido

• Autor(a) principal: Matheus Fonseca Duraes
• Data de Publicação: 2010
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFMG
• Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/REPA-8DMMHQ
• topic: chuva-vazão; Estresse hidrológico; bacia do rio Paraopeba; modelo hidrologico distribuido; Meio ambiente; Recursos hídricos Desenvolvimento; Engenharia sanitária; Saneamento

Hydrologic simulation through conceptual models is one of the most important tools to support water resources management, predicting the hydrologic impacts associated with landuse changes. In the context of hydrologic simulation for water resources management, this dissertation presents a case study for the Paraopeba river basin, which is located in central part of the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, with 10,200 km² of drainage area approximately, being a major tributary of the Três Marias hydropower reservoir. This study aims to evaluate a new method for estimating the hydrological stress of a given watershed using flow duration curve as paradigm and hydrologic simulation of land-usescenarios through the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. Once the parameters that control the hydrologic synthesis are obtained, it becomes possible to classify the basin state, which turns this method useful for water management agencies. Precipitation and discharge data sets were obtained from the Brazilian National Water Agency (ANA) andtemperature, humidity, solar radiation and wind speed were obtained from the National Institute Meteorology (INMET). Long-term hydrologic series were abstracted for the period between 1983 and 2005. Model calibration period was carried out with data sets valid for theperiod 1983-1989, using the Nash-Sutcliffe statistical coefficient (COE) to evaluate the model performance. Validation phase was carried out for the period 2000-2005. In addition, some hydrologic variables, as estimated by the model and extracted from simulated hydrographs, were compared to observed data. Statistical precision measures showed the model is able to simulate the major hydrologic impacts as resulting from land-use changes in the Paraopeba river basin, with COE greater than 0.75 for calibration and validation phases, while the hydrologic stress resultsshowed that in the locations of Ponte Nova do Paraopeba and Porto do Mesquita, the stress level were low and medium, respectively, in all simulated scenarios.