| id |
UFMG_4ac40d653e1ac98fa62de6dde55386a0
|
| oai_identifier_str |
oai:repositorio.ufmg.br:1843/34234
|
| network_acronym_str |
UFMG
|
| network_name_str |
Repositório Institucional da UFMG
|
| repository_id_str |
|
| reponame_str |
Repositório Institucional da UFMG
|
| instacron_str |
UFMG
|
| institution |
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
|
| instname_str |
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
|
| spelling |
Mauro Sayar Ferreirahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/1737002737522248Ronaldo NazaréMauro Rodrigues Juniorhttp://lattes.cnpq.br/5576848042999752Marcelo Randolfo da Costa Januário2020-10-05T17:40:30Z2020-10-05T17:40:30Z2020-08-21http://hdl.handle.net/1843/34234A curva J e as condições de Marshall-Lerner consideram impactos na balança comercial em decorrência de alterações nos termos de troca. Exercícios empíricos que avaliam ambas são realizados a partir de um choque nos termos de troca a afim de se observar a dinâmica da balança comercial. No entanto, a variável dos termos de troca é endógena e oscila a partir de choques econômicos que também afetam diversas variáveis globais e domésticas, todas elas com potencial de afetar a balança comercial. O presente trabalho analisa a possibilidade de ocorrência da curva J e das condições de Marshall-Lerner diante de choques de demanda e oferta mundiais que afetam endogenamente os termos de troca da economia brasileira, a balança comercial e outras variáveis domésticas. Análises feitas a partir da estimação de modelos SVAR por procedimentos Bayesianos mostram que o choque positivo de demanda e adverso de oferta valorizam os termos de troca brasileiros e causam deterioração da balança comercial desde instantes iniciais ao choque, não sendo verificada a curva J. As condições de Marshall-Lerner são observadas continuamente. As simulações também mostram heterogeneidade nas respostas das balanças comerciais desagregadas por tipo de bem.The J-curve and Marshall-Lerner conditions consider impacts on the trade balance due to changes in terms of trade. Empirical exercises that evaluate both apply a shock in terms of trade to observe the dynamics of the trade balance. Nonetheless, terms of trade are an endogenous variable that fluctuates from economic shocks that also affect several global and domestic variables, all of which have the potential to affect the trade balance. The present work analyzes the possibility of occurrence of the J-curve and Marshall-Lerner conditions in the face of world demand and supply shocks that endogenously affect the terms of trade of the Brazilian economy, the trade balance, and other domestic variables. The analyzes made from the estimation of SVAR models by Bayesian procedures show that the positive demand shock and supply adverse shock value Brazilian terms of trade and cause deterioration of the trade balance from the moment of the shock, with the J-curve not being verified. Marshall-Lerner conditions are observed continuously. The simulations also show heterogeneity in the responses of trade balances disaggregated by type of good.CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorporUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisPrograma de Pós-Graduação em EconomiaUFMGBrasilFACE - FACULDADE DE CIENCIAS ECONOMICASBalança comercialOferta e procuraEconomiaCurva JCondição de Marshall-LernerChoques externosSVAR BayesianoChoques globais e respostas do setor externo brasileiro: a curva J e as condições de Marshall-Lerner são observadas?info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGORIGINALDissertacao_Marcelo_Januario.pdfDissertacao_Marcelo_Januario.pdfapplication/pdf8478147https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/34234/1/Dissertacao_Marcelo_Januario.pdf287e6b196a657a32789a4b1a9ad90c56MD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82119https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/34234/2/license.txt34badce4be7e31e3adb4575ae96af679MD521843/342342020-10-05 14:40:30.431oai:repositorio.ufmg.br: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Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2020-10-05T17:40:30Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false
|
| _version_ |
1813548310886088704
|