Time trends and projected obesity epidemic in Brazilian adults between 2006 and 2030

• Autor(a) principal: José Matheus Estivaleti
• Data de Publicação: 2022
• Outros Autores: Juan Guzman-Habinger, Javiera Lobos, Catarina Machado Azeredo, Rafael Moreira Claro, Gerson Ferrari, Fernando Adami, Leandro F. M. Rezende
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: eng
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFMG
• Texto Completo: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16934-5; http://hdl.handle.net/1843/66227; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2243-2528; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6189-4429; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9690-575X; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3177-6576; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1918-3364; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7469-1399
• topic: Obesidade; Sobrepeso; Saúde da população; Fatores socioeconômicos

We examined time trends and projected obesity epidemic in Brazilian adults between 2006 and 2030 by sex, race/skin color, educational attainment, and state capitals. Self-reported body weight and height of 730,309 adults (≥ 18 years) from the Vigitel study were collected by telephone interview between 2006 and 2019. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to predict the prevalence of body mass index (BMI) categories as a function of time by 2030. The prevalence of obesity increased from 11.8% in 2006 to 20.3% in 2019. The projected prevalences by 2030 are estimated to be 68.1% for overweight, 29.6% for obesity, and 9.3% for obesity classes II and III. Women, black and other minority ethnicities, middle-aged adults, adults with ≤ 7 years of education, and in Northern and Midwestern capitals are estimated to have higher obesity prevalence by 2030. Our findings indicate a sustained increase in the obesity epidemic in all sociodemographic subgroups and across the country. Obesity may reach three out of 10 adults by 2030.