Forecasting life expectancy in São Paulo city, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2023 |
Tipo de documento: | Dissertação |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFMG |
Texto Completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/1843/60064 |
Resumo: | The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a significant rise in mortality rates, interrupting historical trends and making it challenging to forecast future life expectancy levels in many places. São Paulo, the first city in Brazil to report a COVID-19 case and death saw a decrease of over four years in life expectancy at birth for males and over three years for females between 2019 and 2021. São Paulo has been at the forefront of the demographic transition in the country and experienced a non-linear mortality decline over the 20th century. The city's historical mortality trajectory and the disruptive effects of COVID-19 have introduced challenges to mortality forecasting. In this study, we used a unique dataset starting from 1920 to forecast life expectancy in São Paulo until 2050 using the Lee-Carter (LC) and Lee-Miller (LM) methods. Our methodology included a combination of forecasts based on different baseline periods, ranging from 1920 to 1995 until 2021, and six scenarios for post-pandemic mortality levels. Based on 73,200 simulations for each year between 2022 and 2050, we synthesized the resulting life expectancy forecasts into median values and 95% prediction intervals (PI). By 2050, we predict that life expectancy at birth in the city will reach approximately 81.9 years for men and 88.9 years for women. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, our results presented significantly higher forecasts than what was predicted by the most recent forecast in 2013. Additionally, we estimated within the 95% PI that by 2045, both male and female life expectancy in São Paulo could reach the levels of the best-performing countries. |
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Cássio Maldonado Turrahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/3731419801596355Ugofilippo BaselliniBernardo Lanza QueirozEnrique Acostahttp://lattes.cnpq.br/8056305594960156Maria Laura Lopes Miranda2023-10-25T21:24:41Z2023-10-25T21:24:41Z2023-09-28http://hdl.handle.net/1843/60064The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a significant rise in mortality rates, interrupting historical trends and making it challenging to forecast future life expectancy levels in many places. São Paulo, the first city in Brazil to report a COVID-19 case and death saw a decrease of over four years in life expectancy at birth for males and over three years for females between 2019 and 2021. São Paulo has been at the forefront of the demographic transition in the country and experienced a non-linear mortality decline over the 20th century. The city's historical mortality trajectory and the disruptive effects of COVID-19 have introduced challenges to mortality forecasting. In this study, we used a unique dataset starting from 1920 to forecast life expectancy in São Paulo until 2050 using the Lee-Carter (LC) and Lee-Miller (LM) methods. Our methodology included a combination of forecasts based on different baseline periods, ranging from 1920 to 1995 until 2021, and six scenarios for post-pandemic mortality levels. Based on 73,200 simulations for each year between 2022 and 2050, we synthesized the resulting life expectancy forecasts into median values and 95% prediction intervals (PI). By 2050, we predict that life expectancy at birth in the city will reach approximately 81.9 years for men and 88.9 years for women. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, our results presented significantly higher forecasts than what was predicted by the most recent forecast in 2013. Additionally, we estimated within the 95% PI that by 2045, both male and female life expectancy in São Paulo could reach the levels of the best-performing countries.A pandemia da COVID 19 desencadeou um aumento sem precedentes nos níveis de mortalidade, interrompendo tendências históricas e dificultando as projeções de expectativa de vida em diversos locais . São Paulo, a primeira cidade no Brazil a registrar caso s e morte s por COVID 19, registrou entre 2019 e 2021 quedas de mais de quatro anos na expectativa de vida ao nascer para homens e de mais de três anos para mulheres. São Paulo esteve na vanguarda da transição demográfica do país e apresentou queda não linear da mortalidade ao longo do século XX. A trajetória histórica da mortalidade de São Paulo e, mais recentemente, os efeitos disruptivos d a COVID 19, apresentaram desafios à projeção de mortalidade n a cidade . Neste estudo, usamos um conjunto de dados único iniciado em 1920 para projetar a expectativa de vida em São Paulo até 2050 usando os métodos Lee Carter (LC) e Lee Miller (LM). Nossa metodologia incluiu o uso de uma combinação de estimativas baseadas em diferentes períodos de ajuste , entre 1920 e 1995 até 20 21, e seis cenários para níveis de mortalidade pós pandemia. Baseado em 73.200 simulações para cada ano entre 2022 e 2050, as projeções de expectativa de vida foram sumarizadas em valores medianos e intervalos de predição ( de 95%. Até 2050, estimamos que a expectativa de vida ao nascer na cidade chegará a aproximadamente 81,9 anos para homens e 88,9 para mulheres. Apesar da ocorrência da pandemia de COVID 19, nossos resultados apresentaram estimativas significativamente superiores ao previsto pela projeção mais recente realizada em 2013. Além disso, dentro do IP de 95%, estimamos que até 2045, tanto a expectativa de vida masculina quanto feminina em São Paulo poderia atingir os níveis dos países com melhor desempenho.CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorengUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisPrograma de Pós-Graduação em DemografiaUFMGBrasilFCE - DEPARTAMENTO DE DEMOGRAFIAhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/pt/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMortalidadeCOVID-19 (Doença)São Paulo (SP)Demografiamortality forecastingcovid-19Lee-CarterLee-MillerSão PauloForecasting life expectancy in São Paulo city, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemicProjetando a expectativa de vida na cidade de São Paulo, Brasil, em meio à pandemia da COVID-19info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGCC-LICENSElicense_rdflicense_rdfapplication/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8805https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/60064/2/license_rdf00e5e6a57d5512d202d12cb48704dfd6MD52ORIGINALForecasting life expectancy in São Paulo city, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.pdfForecasting life expectancy in São Paulo city, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.pdfapplication/pdf1978461https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/60064/4/Forecasting%20life%20expectancy%20in%20S%c3%a3o%20Paulo%20city%2c%20Brazil%2c%20amidst%20the%20COVID-19%20pandemic.pdf653889072766df156b40ff630f23d5bdMD54LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82118https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/60064/5/license.txtcda590c95a0b51b4d15f60c9642ca272MD551843/600642023-10-25 18:24:41.577oai:repositorio.ufmg.br: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ório de PublicaçõesPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2023-10-25T21:24:41Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Forecasting life expectancy in São Paulo city, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic |
dc.title.alternative.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Projetando a expectativa de vida na cidade de São Paulo, Brasil, em meio à pandemia da COVID-19 |
title |
Forecasting life expectancy in São Paulo city, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic |
spellingShingle |
Forecasting life expectancy in São Paulo city, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic Maria Laura Lopes Miranda mortality forecasting covid-19 Lee-Carter Lee-Miller São Paulo Mortalidade COVID-19 (Doença) São Paulo (SP) Demografia |
title_short |
Forecasting life expectancy in São Paulo city, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_full |
Forecasting life expectancy in São Paulo city, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting life expectancy in São Paulo city, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting life expectancy in São Paulo city, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic |
title_sort |
Forecasting life expectancy in São Paulo city, Brazil, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic |
author |
Maria Laura Lopes Miranda |
author_facet |
Maria Laura Lopes Miranda |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv |
Cássio Maldonado Turra |
dc.contributor.advisor1Lattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/3731419801596355 |
dc.contributor.advisor-co1.fl_str_mv |
Ugofilippo Basellini |
dc.contributor.referee1.fl_str_mv |
Bernardo Lanza Queiroz |
dc.contributor.referee2.fl_str_mv |
Enrique Acosta |
dc.contributor.authorLattes.fl_str_mv |
http://lattes.cnpq.br/8056305594960156 |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Maria Laura Lopes Miranda |
contributor_str_mv |
Cássio Maldonado Turra Ugofilippo Basellini Bernardo Lanza Queiroz Enrique Acosta |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
mortality forecasting covid-19 Lee-Carter Lee-Miller São Paulo |
topic |
mortality forecasting covid-19 Lee-Carter Lee-Miller São Paulo Mortalidade COVID-19 (Doença) São Paulo (SP) Demografia |
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Mortalidade COVID-19 (Doença) São Paulo (SP) Demografia |
description |
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a significant rise in mortality rates, interrupting historical trends and making it challenging to forecast future life expectancy levels in many places. São Paulo, the first city in Brazil to report a COVID-19 case and death saw a decrease of over four years in life expectancy at birth for males and over three years for females between 2019 and 2021. São Paulo has been at the forefront of the demographic transition in the country and experienced a non-linear mortality decline over the 20th century. The city's historical mortality trajectory and the disruptive effects of COVID-19 have introduced challenges to mortality forecasting. In this study, we used a unique dataset starting from 1920 to forecast life expectancy in São Paulo until 2050 using the Lee-Carter (LC) and Lee-Miller (LM) methods. Our methodology included a combination of forecasts based on different baseline periods, ranging from 1920 to 1995 until 2021, and six scenarios for post-pandemic mortality levels. Based on 73,200 simulations for each year between 2022 and 2050, we synthesized the resulting life expectancy forecasts into median values and 95% prediction intervals (PI). By 2050, we predict that life expectancy at birth in the city will reach approximately 81.9 years for men and 88.9 years for women. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, our results presented significantly higher forecasts than what was predicted by the most recent forecast in 2013. Additionally, we estimated within the 95% PI that by 2045, both male and female life expectancy in São Paulo could reach the levels of the best-performing countries. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2023-10-25T21:24:41Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2023-10-25T21:24:41Z |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2023-09-28 |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
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masterThesis |
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publishedVersion |
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http://hdl.handle.net/1843/60064 |
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http://hdl.handle.net/1843/60064 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
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eng |
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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/pt/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/pt/ |
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openAccess |
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Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
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Programa de Pós-Graduação em Demografia |
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UFMG |
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Brasil |
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FCE - DEPARTAMENTO DE DEMOGRAFIA |
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Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
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