| spelling |
Fabrício José Missiohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/5047485742216555Frederico Gonzaga Jayme JúniorPedro Mendes LoureiroJoão Prates RomeroJosé Gabriel Porcile MeirellesLuciano Dias de CarvalhoMauro Borges Lemoshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/5968623382148179Wallace Marcelino Pereira2021-12-14T13:51:50Z2021-12-14T13:51:50Z2021-08-27http://hdl.handle.net/1843/38851https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1817-3332A tese está dividida em quatro ensaios. O objetivo geral é investigar o papel dos serviços modernos no desempenho das economias e a importância da simbiose com a indústria para o crescimento econômico, tendo a taxa real de câmbio (RER) como instrumento de política econômica, capaz de estimular a dinâmica setorial. O primeiro estudo resgata as teorias do crescimento e propõe uma agenda de pesquisa que inclua os serviços modernos como tema central de investigação. O argumento principal é que o setor de serviços afeta positivamente na produtividade industrial e contribui para o crescimento da renda per capita através da interação da produtividade entre indústria e serviços modernos. O segundo ensaio tem por objetivo atualizar a tese central da abordagem estruturalista latino-americana. Através de uma abordagem analítica, constata-se que os países latino-americanos não são complexos, são pouco produtivos e também não lideram o progresso técnico nos serviços modernos. Os países centrais possuem serviços competitivos, ao passo que os países periféricos ocupam espaço restrito no comércio exterior. Defende-se que um dos motivos que explicam essa dicotomia é a ausência da formação de um "núcleo endógeno de dinamismo tecnológico" durante a fase de industrialização dos países latino-americanos. O terceiro ensaio testa o papel da RER no processo de mudança estrutural, e no estímulo à geração de valor adicionado e emprego no setor de serviços modernos. Para testar essa hipótese, estimaram-se modelos econométricos com base no Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) para uma amostra de 19 países entre 2000 e 2014. Os resultados mostram que uma política cambial favorável contribui para o diferencial de desempenho setorial entre os países. O quarto ensaio investiga se o câmbio desvalorizado tem efeitos sobre a simbiose entre indústria e serviços modernos e, posteriormente, se essa integração entre ambos os setores afeta o crescimento econômico. Estabeleceram-se modelos econométricos (GMM) para uma amostra de 41 países entre 2000 e 2014. Os resultados mostram que a RER desvalorizada estimula a simbiose entre ambos os setores. Entende-se que o mecanismo fundamental que interliga a política cambial, a simbiose e o crescimento econômico são os retornos crescentes de escala dinâmicos ampliados, decorrentes da integração setorial entre indústria e serviços.The thesis is divided into four essays. The general objective is to investigate the role of modern services in the performance of economies and the importance of symbiosis with industry for economic growth, using the real exchange rate (RER) as an instrument of economic policy capable of stimulating sectorial dynamics. The first study rescues the theories of growth and proposes a research agenda that includes modern services as a central theme of study. The main argument is that the service sector positively affects industrial productivity and contributes to the growth of per capita income through the productivity interaction between industry and modern services. The second essay aims to update the central thesis of the Latin American structuralist approach. Through an analytical approach, it appears that the Latin American countries are not complex, they are not very productive and they also do not lead the technical progress in modern services. Central countries have competitive services, while peripheral countries occupy a restricted space in foreign trade. It is argued that one of the reasons that explain this dichotomy is the absence of the formation of an "endogenous nucleus of technological dynamism" during the industrialization phase of Latin American countries. The third essay tests the role of RER in the process of structural change, and in stimulating the generation of added value and employment in the modern services sector. To test this hypothesis, econometric models were estimated based on the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) for a sample of 19 countries between 2000 and 2014. The results show that a favorable exchange rate policy contributes to the differential in sectoral performance between countries. The fourth essay investigates whether the devalued exchange rate has effects on the symbiosis between industry and modern services, and later, whether this integration between both sectors affects economic growth. Econometric models (GMM) are estimated for a sample of 41 countries between 2000 and 2014. The results show that the devalued RER encourages symbiosis between both sectors. It is understood that the fundamental mechanism that interconnects exchange rate policy, symbiosis and economic growth are the increasing returns of expanded dynamic scale arising from the sectoral integration between industry and services.CNPq - Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e TecnológicoporUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisPrograma de Pós-Graduação em EconomiaUFMGBrasilFCE - DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS ECONÔMICASMercado de câmbioPolítica econômicaServiços (Economia)Serviços ModernosCâmbioMudança estruturalCrescimentoO setor de serviços no crescimento econômico e o papel da política cambial: teoria e evidênciasinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGORIGINALTESE_FINAL_versão_final_corrigida_oficializada-catalogada.pdfTESE_FINAL_versão_final_corrigida_oficializada-catalogada.pdfapplication/pdf1259350https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/38851/1/TESE_FINAL_vers%c3%a3o_final_corrigida_oficializada-catalogada.pdf1a9736af750d40d803e3dc599fc21682MD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82118https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/38851/2/license.txtcda590c95a0b51b4d15f60c9642ca272MD521843/388512021-12-14 10:51:51.21oai:repositorio.ufmg.br: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ório InstitucionalPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2021-12-14T13:51:51Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false
|