Alternância ideológica ou reação? : a dinâmica presidencial no Chile entre 2006 e 2017

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Lucas Rodrigues Cunha
Data de Publicação: 2018
Tipo de documento: Tese
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFMG
Texto Completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/38041
Resumo: This thesis aims to analyze the effects of ideological alternations and reactionto external schoks on the Presidency of the Republic in Chile between 2006 and 2017. More specifically, we intend to evaluate two hypotheses - ideological alternation and reaction to external shocks on presidential dynamics. Presidential dynamics is understood here in terms of changes in the budget, organization chart and staff of the institutional structure directly linked to the Presidency. There is a set of studies that analyze the recent ideological alternation in Latin America, which gave rise to the so-called left turns. There is also a literature on presidencies of the republic, well developed for the North American case, which will be reported here as a comparative theoretical scope, which analyzes the decision-making processes in the presidencies. There is, however, no theoretical or empirical dialogue between such literatures. The thesis proposal is to innovate in the sense of combining these two literatures of political science. The left turns literature highlights the elements of voter dissatisfaction with pro-market reforms adopted in the 1990s. Such dissatisfaction was associated with leaders and parties who represented the status quo, whether they were right-wing or center-right. Left-wing and center-left parties and leaders sought to introduce policies that would reduce social and economic inequalities in their countries, even though, particularly in the Southern Cone, they moderated their discourse and sought to adapt to the context of fiscal and monetary austerity. The presidency literature, on the other hand, discusses evidence on how presidents govern and how they structure presidential advisory bodies and networks as a way to gain gains and influence in other arenas. Chapter 1 discusses presidential studies and their application to the context of Latin American presidentialism. Chapter 2 analyzes presidential dynamics in Chile and analyzes data related to the organization, staff and budget of the Chilean presidency under the governments Bachelet I, Piñera I and Bachelet II. Chapter 3 is devoted to systematic procedural analysis with two main focuses, the first dedicated to show, through a statistical analysis that there is a difference between presidential disapproval inside and outside the period of the so-called presidential honeymoon. The second analysis is devoted to the external shocks that have occurred throughout the three governments. This analysis shows that the external shocks hypothesis is more adequate to understand the changes in presidential dynamics. In this sense, the thesis shows that in the governments analyzed there are greater incentives to change the presidential dynamics in terms of the presidential staff, the budget and the presidential organization during the mandate that within the period of the socalled honeymoon. The methodology to be used in this study is characterized as a qualitative tool that seeks to make valid causal inferences. The conclusion is that the dynamics of the presidency change over the term more intensively than during the period of the so-called honeymoon.
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spelling Alternância ideológica ou reação? : a dinâmica presidencial no Chile entre 2006 e 2017ChileAlternância ideológicaDinâmica presidencialThis thesis aims to analyze the effects of ideological alternations and reactionto external schoks on the Presidency of the Republic in Chile between 2006 and 2017. More specifically, we intend to evaluate two hypotheses - ideological alternation and reaction to external shocks on presidential dynamics. Presidential dynamics is understood here in terms of changes in the budget, organization chart and staff of the institutional structure directly linked to the Presidency. There is a set of studies that analyze the recent ideological alternation in Latin America, which gave rise to the so-called left turns. There is also a literature on presidencies of the republic, well developed for the North American case, which will be reported here as a comparative theoretical scope, which analyzes the decision-making processes in the presidencies. There is, however, no theoretical or empirical dialogue between such literatures. The thesis proposal is to innovate in the sense of combining these two literatures of political science. The left turns literature highlights the elements of voter dissatisfaction with pro-market reforms adopted in the 1990s. Such dissatisfaction was associated with leaders and parties who represented the status quo, whether they were right-wing or center-right. Left-wing and center-left parties and leaders sought to introduce policies that would reduce social and economic inequalities in their countries, even though, particularly in the Southern Cone, they moderated their discourse and sought to adapt to the context of fiscal and monetary austerity. The presidency literature, on the other hand, discusses evidence on how presidents govern and how they structure presidential advisory bodies and networks as a way to gain gains and influence in other arenas. Chapter 1 discusses presidential studies and their application to the context of Latin American presidentialism. Chapter 2 analyzes presidential dynamics in Chile and analyzes data related to the organization, staff and budget of the Chilean presidency under the governments Bachelet I, Piñera I and Bachelet II. Chapter 3 is devoted to systematic procedural analysis with two main focuses, the first dedicated to show, through a statistical analysis that there is a difference between presidential disapproval inside and outside the period of the so-called presidential honeymoon. The second analysis is devoted to the external shocks that have occurred throughout the three governments. This analysis shows that the external shocks hypothesis is more adequate to understand the changes in presidential dynamics. In this sense, the thesis shows that in the governments analyzed there are greater incentives to change the presidential dynamics in terms of the presidential staff, the budget and the presidential organization during the mandate that within the period of the socalled honeymoon. The methodology to be used in this study is characterized as a qualitative tool that seeks to make valid causal inferences. The conclusion is that the dynamics of the presidency change over the term more intensively than during the period of the so-called honeymoon.Essa tese tem por objetivo analisar a dinâmica de funcionamento da Presidência da República no Chile no período entre 2006 e 2017. Mais especificamente, pretende se avaliar o impacto de dois fatores – a alternância ideológica na chefia do poder Executivo e a ocorrência de alterações no ambiente político (choques externos) – sobre a dinâmica presidencial. Desse modo, pretende-se avaliar duas hipóteses – a de alternância ideológica e a de reação a choques externos sobre a dinâmica presidencial. Dinâmica presidencial é compreendida aqui em termos de mudanças no orçamento, organograma e no staff da estrutura institucional diretamente vinculadas à Presidência. Há um conjunto de estudos que analisam a alternância ideológica recente na América Latina, que deu origem ao assim chamado left turns. Há também uma literatura sobre presidências da república, bastante desenvolvida para o caso norte americano, que será reportada aqui como escopo teórico comparativo, que analisa os processos de tomada de decisão nas presidências. Não há, no entanto, diálogo teórico nem tampouco empírico entre tais literaturas. A proposta da tese é inovar no sentido de conjugar essas duas literaturas da ciência política. A literatura sobre os left turns destaca os elementos da insatisfação dos eleitores com reformas pró-mercado adotadas nos anos de 1990. Tal insatisfação foi associada a líderes e partidos que representavam o status quo, fossem eles de direita ou estivessem situados ao centro. Partidos e líderes de esquerda e centro-esquerda buscaram introduzir políticas que diminuíssem as desigualdades sociais e econômicas em seus países, ainda que, particularmente no cone sul, tenham moderado seu discurso e procurado se adaptar ao contexto de austeridade fiscal e monetária. Já a literatura sobre residências discute evidências sobre como presidentes governam e de que maneira estruturam os órgãos e redes de assessoramento presidencial, como forma de obter ganhos e influência em outras arenas. No capítulo 1 são discutidos os estudos presidenciais e sua aplicação para o contexto de presidencialismos latinoamericanos. No capítulo 2 é feita uma análise da dinâmica presidencial no Chile e são analisados dados relacionados ao organograma, staff e orçamento da presidência chilena sob os governos Bachelet I, Piñera I e Bachelet II. O capítulo 3 é dedicado à análise estatística do período da chamada lua-de-mel presidencial e também focado em elencar eventos, considerados “choques externos” que ocorreram ao longo dos três governos. Essa análise evidencia que a hipótese dos choques externos é mais adequada para compreendermos as alterações na dinâmica presidencial, quando comparada à força explicativa da alternância ideológica. Nesse sentido a tese mostra que nos governos analisados há maiores incentivos para se alterar a dinâmica presidencial em termos do staff presidencial, do orçamento e do organograma presidencial ao longo do mandato que dentro do período da chamada lua-de-mel. A metodologia a ser utilizada nesse estudo se caracteriza como uma ferramenta qualitativa que busca fazer inferências causais válidas. A conclusão é de que a dinâmica da presidência se altera ao longo do mandato de maneira mais intensa que no período da chamada lua-de-mel.CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível SuperiorUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisBrasilFAF - DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIA POLÍTICAPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Ciência PolíticaUFMGCarlos Ranulfo Felix de Melohttp://lattes.cnpq.br/2313459995776080Manoel Leonardo Wanderley Duarte SantosBruno Pinheiro Wanderley ReisFelipe Nunes dos SantosThiago Rodrigues SilameBruno Lazzarotti Diniz CostaLucas Rodrigues Cunha2021-09-16T12:40:59Z2021-09-16T12:40:59Z2018-12-13info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/1843/38041porinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMG2021-09-16T12:40:59Zoai:repositorio.ufmg.br:1843/38041Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oairepositorio@ufmg.bropendoar:2021-09-16T12:40:59Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Alternância ideológica ou reação? : a dinâmica presidencial no Chile entre 2006 e 2017
title Alternância ideológica ou reação? : a dinâmica presidencial no Chile entre 2006 e 2017
spellingShingle Alternância ideológica ou reação? : a dinâmica presidencial no Chile entre 2006 e 2017
Lucas Rodrigues Cunha
Chile
Alternância ideológica
Dinâmica presidencial
title_short Alternância ideológica ou reação? : a dinâmica presidencial no Chile entre 2006 e 2017
title_full Alternância ideológica ou reação? : a dinâmica presidencial no Chile entre 2006 e 2017
title_fullStr Alternância ideológica ou reação? : a dinâmica presidencial no Chile entre 2006 e 2017
title_full_unstemmed Alternância ideológica ou reação? : a dinâmica presidencial no Chile entre 2006 e 2017
title_sort Alternância ideológica ou reação? : a dinâmica presidencial no Chile entre 2006 e 2017
author Lucas Rodrigues Cunha
author_facet Lucas Rodrigues Cunha
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Carlos Ranulfo Felix de Melo
http://lattes.cnpq.br/2313459995776080
Manoel Leonardo Wanderley Duarte Santos
Bruno Pinheiro Wanderley Reis
Felipe Nunes dos Santos
Thiago Rodrigues Silame
Bruno Lazzarotti Diniz Costa
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Lucas Rodrigues Cunha
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Chile
Alternância ideológica
Dinâmica presidencial
topic Chile
Alternância ideológica
Dinâmica presidencial
description This thesis aims to analyze the effects of ideological alternations and reactionto external schoks on the Presidency of the Republic in Chile between 2006 and 2017. More specifically, we intend to evaluate two hypotheses - ideological alternation and reaction to external shocks on presidential dynamics. Presidential dynamics is understood here in terms of changes in the budget, organization chart and staff of the institutional structure directly linked to the Presidency. There is a set of studies that analyze the recent ideological alternation in Latin America, which gave rise to the so-called left turns. There is also a literature on presidencies of the republic, well developed for the North American case, which will be reported here as a comparative theoretical scope, which analyzes the decision-making processes in the presidencies. There is, however, no theoretical or empirical dialogue between such literatures. The thesis proposal is to innovate in the sense of combining these two literatures of political science. The left turns literature highlights the elements of voter dissatisfaction with pro-market reforms adopted in the 1990s. Such dissatisfaction was associated with leaders and parties who represented the status quo, whether they were right-wing or center-right. Left-wing and center-left parties and leaders sought to introduce policies that would reduce social and economic inequalities in their countries, even though, particularly in the Southern Cone, they moderated their discourse and sought to adapt to the context of fiscal and monetary austerity. The presidency literature, on the other hand, discusses evidence on how presidents govern and how they structure presidential advisory bodies and networks as a way to gain gains and influence in other arenas. Chapter 1 discusses presidential studies and their application to the context of Latin American presidentialism. Chapter 2 analyzes presidential dynamics in Chile and analyzes data related to the organization, staff and budget of the Chilean presidency under the governments Bachelet I, Piñera I and Bachelet II. Chapter 3 is devoted to systematic procedural analysis with two main focuses, the first dedicated to show, through a statistical analysis that there is a difference between presidential disapproval inside and outside the period of the so-called presidential honeymoon. The second analysis is devoted to the external shocks that have occurred throughout the three governments. This analysis shows that the external shocks hypothesis is more adequate to understand the changes in presidential dynamics. In this sense, the thesis shows that in the governments analyzed there are greater incentives to change the presidential dynamics in terms of the presidential staff, the budget and the presidential organization during the mandate that within the period of the socalled honeymoon. The methodology to be used in this study is characterized as a qualitative tool that seeks to make valid causal inferences. The conclusion is that the dynamics of the presidency change over the term more intensively than during the period of the so-called honeymoon.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018-12-13
2021-09-16T12:40:59Z
2021-09-16T12:40:59Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
format doctoralThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/1843/38041
url http://hdl.handle.net/1843/38041
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Brasil
FAF - DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIA POLÍTICA
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência Política
UFMG
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Brasil
FAF - DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIA POLÍTICA
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência Política
UFMG
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMG
instname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
instacron:UFMG
instname_str Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
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institution UFMG
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da UFMG
collection Repositório Institucional da UFMG
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv repositorio@ufmg.br
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