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2023-08-07T18:39:23Z2023-08-07T18:39:23Z2021110281308https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2021.07.0491201-9712http://hdl.handle.net/1843/57557https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9345-018XObjectives: The majority of available scores to assess mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in the emergency department have high risk of bias. Therefore, this cohort aimed to develop and validate a score at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and to compare this score with other existing ones.Methods: Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hos pitals were included. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for in hospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients admitted between March–July, 2020. The model was validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August–September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients.Results: Median (25–75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48–72) years, and in hospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mor tality. Seven significant variables were included in the risk score: age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count, and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829–0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859 [95% CI 0.833–0.885]) and Spanish (0.894 [95% CI 0.870–0.919]) validation cohorts, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. It is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://abc2sph.com/). Conclusions: An easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients com monly available at hospital presentation was designed and validated for early stratification of in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19.engUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisUFMGBrasilICX - DEPARTAMENTO DE ESTATÍSTICAMED - DEPARTAMENTO DE CLÍNICA MÉDICAInternational Journal of Infectious DiseasesCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2MortalidadePrognósticoFatores de riscoHospitalizaçõesCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2MortalityPrognosisRisk factorsHospitalizationsABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: development, external validation and comparison with other available scoresinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971221006056?via%3DihubMilena S.marcolinoFernando AnschauRoberta PozzaRoberta x. CamposRochele m. MenezesRoger m. de AbreuRufino de f. SilvaSilvana M.m. GuimarãesSilvia f. AraújoSusany Anastácia PereiraTalita f. OliveiraJuliana m. RugoloKaren Cristina J.r. PontesKauane Aline m. Dos SantosRodolfo Lucas s. MouratoLeonardo s. de OliveiraLílian s. PinheiroLiliane s. PachecoLucas de d. SousaLuciana S.f. CoutoLuciane KopittkeMaria Aparecida c. BicalhoLuis Cesar s. de MouraLuisa Elem a. SantosMáderson A.s. CabralMaíra d. SouzaAdrián Sánchez-montalváMarcela G.t. TofaniMarcelo CarneiroMaria Angélica p. FerreiraMaria Clara P.b. LimaMariana f. GodoyMarilia M.a. CardosoMeire p. FigueiredoNatália C.s. SampaioNatália l. RangelBerta RaventósNatália t. CrespoNeimy r. de OliveiraTatiana KurtzPedro l. AssafPetrônio José de l. MartelliRafaela S.c. AlmeidaRaphael c. MartinsRaquel LutkmeierReginaldo Aparecido ValacioRenan g. FingerRicardo b. CardosoJosé Miguel ChatkinThainara c. de OliveiraThaíza Simônia M.a. AraújoThulio Henrique o. DinizVeridiana b. Dos SantosVirginia Mara r. GomesVitor Augusto l. do ValeYuri c. RamiresEric BoersmaCarisi a. PolanczykMatheus Carvalho Alves NogueiraMilton h. Guimarães-júniorGiovanna g. ViettaHelena DuaniDaniela PoncePatricia k. ZiegelmannLuís c. CastroKaren b. RuschelChristiane C.r. CiminiSaionara c. FranciscoMaiara a. FlorianiGuilherme f. NascimentoBárbara l. FaraceLuanna s. MonteiroMaira V.r. Souza-silvaThais L.s. SalesKarina Paula M.p. MartinsIsrael j. Borges do NascimentoLucas Emanuel f. RamosTatiani o. FereguettiDaniel T.m.o. FerraraFernando a. BotoniAna Paula B.s. EtgesAlexandre v. SchwarzboldAmanda o. MaurílioAna Luiza B.a. ScottonAndré p. WeberAndré S.m. CostaAndressa b. GlaeserRafael t. SilvaAngélica Aparecida c. MadureiraAngelinda r. BheringBruno Mateus de CastroCarla Thais C.a. da SilvaCarolina m. RamosCaroline d. GomesCíntia a. de CarvalhoDaniel v. SilveiraEdilson CezarMagda c. PiresElayne c. PereiraLuana m. OliveiraEmanuele Marianne s. KrogerFelipe b. ValltFernanda b. LucasFernando g. AranhaFrederico BartolazziGabriela p. CrestaniGisele A.n. BastosGlícia Cristina de c. MadeiraHelena Carolina NoalHeloisa r. ViannaRafael L.r. CarvalhoHenrique c. GuimarãesIsabela m. GomesIsrael MolinaJoanna D'arc l. BatistaJoice c. de AlvarengaJúlia D.s.s. GuimarãesJúlia D.p. de Moraisapplication/pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGLICENSELicense.txtLicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82042https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/57557/1/License.txtfa505098d172de0bc8864fc1287ffe22MD51ORIGINALABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients development, external validation and comparison with other available scores pdfa.pdfABC2-SPH risk score for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients development, external validation and comparison with other available scores pdfa.pdfapplication/pdf1314377https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/57557/2/ABC2-SPH%20risk%20score%20for%20in-hospital%20mortality%20in%20COVID-19%20patients%20development%2c%20external%20validation%20and%20comparison%20with%20other%20available%20scores%20pdfa.pdf148c22a18d7c8b9005bc0e850f16787bMD521843/575572023-08-07 17:20:51.372oai:repositorio.ufmg.br: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Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2023-08-07T20:20:51Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false
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