Land speculation and conservation policy leakage in Brazil
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2019 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | eng |
Título da fonte: | Repositório Institucional da UFMG |
Texto Completo: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab003a http://hdl.handle.net/1843/52293 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9958-8454 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3034-5360 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4797-6628 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7703-946X |
Resumo: | The Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado biomes have been subject to strong pressure from agricultural expansion over the past two decades. A common claim is that the associated tree cover loss was partly driven by speculative land acquisition. In this paper, we analyze the effects of information on planned road infrastructure improvements and changes in conservation policy implementation on expectations of forest conversion. We use a unique land price dataset covering the period from 2001–2012. Based on land rent and hedonic valuation theory, we argue that forestland prices convey information on expected future land use. We decompose forestland prices into a conventional forestland rent and a speculative part related to forestland conversion and alternative land use rents. Using a fixed-effect panel, we then assess whether, where, and to what extent changes in conservation policy affect forestland prices over time. Our results confirm that forestland prices contain expectations about converting forestland to agricultural or pasture land. We also find indications that the Brazilian land market conveys information about potential conservation policy leakage and explore this conjecture descriptively using dynamic deforestation hotspot maps. |
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2023-04-19T20:56:06Z2023-04-19T20:56:06Z2019-04-0214404500611https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab003a1748-9326http://hdl.handle.net/1843/52293https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9958-8454https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3034-5360https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4797-6628https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7703-946XThe Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado biomes have been subject to strong pressure from agricultural expansion over the past two decades. A common claim is that the associated tree cover loss was partly driven by speculative land acquisition. In this paper, we analyze the effects of information on planned road infrastructure improvements and changes in conservation policy implementation on expectations of forest conversion. We use a unique land price dataset covering the period from 2001–2012. Based on land rent and hedonic valuation theory, we argue that forestland prices convey information on expected future land use. We decompose forestland prices into a conventional forestland rent and a speculative part related to forestland conversion and alternative land use rents. Using a fixed-effect panel, we then assess whether, where, and to what extent changes in conservation policy affect forestland prices over time. Our results confirm that forestland prices contain expectations about converting forestland to agricultural or pasture land. We also find indications that the Brazilian land market conveys information about potential conservation policy leakage and explore this conjecture descriptively using dynamic deforestation hotspot maps.engUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisUFMGBrasilIGC - DEPARTAMENTO DE CARTOGRAFIAEnviromental Research LettersEspeculaçãoDesigualdade socialDesmatamentoBiodiversidade - ConservaçãoLand pricesDeforestationSpeculationConservation policyLeakageLand speculation and conservation policy leakage in Brazilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttps://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab003aJavier MirandaJan BörnerMatthias KalkuhlBritaldo Silveira Soares Filhoapplication/pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGLICENSELicense.txtLicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82042https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/52293/1/License.txtfa505098d172de0bc8864fc1287ffe22MD51ORIGINALlandspeculationandconservation.pdflandspeculationandconservation.pdfapplication/pdf778896https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/52293/2/landspeculationandconservation.pdfd59355e096027c88ea123049864d58b6MD521843/522932023-04-19 17:56:06.304oai:repositorio.ufmg.br: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Repositório de PublicaçõesPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2023-04-19T20:56:06Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false |
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Land speculation and conservation policy leakage in Brazil |
title |
Land speculation and conservation policy leakage in Brazil |
spellingShingle |
Land speculation and conservation policy leakage in Brazil Javier Miranda Land prices Deforestation Speculation Conservation policy Leakage Especulação Desigualdade social Desmatamento Biodiversidade - Conservação |
title_short |
Land speculation and conservation policy leakage in Brazil |
title_full |
Land speculation and conservation policy leakage in Brazil |
title_fullStr |
Land speculation and conservation policy leakage in Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed |
Land speculation and conservation policy leakage in Brazil |
title_sort |
Land speculation and conservation policy leakage in Brazil |
author |
Javier Miranda |
author_facet |
Javier Miranda Jan Börner Matthias Kalkuhl Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Jan Börner Matthias Kalkuhl Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Javier Miranda Jan Börner Matthias Kalkuhl Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Land prices Deforestation Speculation Conservation policy Leakage |
topic |
Land prices Deforestation Speculation Conservation policy Leakage Especulação Desigualdade social Desmatamento Biodiversidade - Conservação |
dc.subject.other.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Especulação Desigualdade social Desmatamento Biodiversidade - Conservação |
description |
The Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado biomes have been subject to strong pressure from agricultural expansion over the past two decades. A common claim is that the associated tree cover loss was partly driven by speculative land acquisition. In this paper, we analyze the effects of information on planned road infrastructure improvements and changes in conservation policy implementation on expectations of forest conversion. We use a unique land price dataset covering the period from 2001–2012. Based on land rent and hedonic valuation theory, we argue that forestland prices convey information on expected future land use. We decompose forestland prices into a conventional forestland rent and a speculative part related to forestland conversion and alternative land use rents. Using a fixed-effect panel, we then assess whether, where, and to what extent changes in conservation policy affect forestland prices over time. Our results confirm that forestland prices contain expectations about converting forestland to agricultural or pasture land. We also find indications that the Brazilian land market conveys information about potential conservation policy leakage and explore this conjecture descriptively using dynamic deforestation hotspot maps. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv |
2019-04-02 |
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv |
2023-04-19T20:56:06Z |
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv |
2023-04-19T20:56:06Z |
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/1843/52293 |
dc.identifier.doi.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab003a |
dc.identifier.issn.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
1748-9326 |
dc.identifier.orcid.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9958-8454 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3034-5360 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4797-6628 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7703-946X |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab003a http://hdl.handle.net/1843/52293 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9958-8454 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3034-5360 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4797-6628 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7703-946X |
identifier_str_mv |
1748-9326 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.ispartof.pt_BR.fl_str_mv |
Enviromental Research Letters |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
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application/pdf |
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Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
dc.publisher.initials.fl_str_mv |
UFMG |
dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv |
Brasil |
dc.publisher.department.fl_str_mv |
IGC - DEPARTAMENTO DE CARTOGRAFIA |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
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reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMG instname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) instacron:UFMG |
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