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2022-10-06T14:52:15Z2022-10-06T14:52:15Z2017190316017622386890http://hdl.handle.net/1843/46033Brazilian agribusiness has stood out in recent years for its efficiency and productivity growth, based on technology, planning, management of results, and continuous improvement of performance. In the live cattle market, the price oscillations show themselves as a risk that the producer has to minimize in order to ensure the success of his business. In this scenario, the futures market has been translated into an important hedging instrument, however, a confronting challenge is the identification of the production ratio that must be protected. Thus, this article aims to statistically compare the performance of six models for the calculation of the optimal hedge ratio in the Brazilian live cattle futures market: Ordinary least squares, BEKK, DCC by Tse and Tsui (2002), DCC by Engle and Sheppard (2001), time-varying beta correlations, and unconditional beta. The ratios were estimated for the log-returns of the daily and monthly price series of spot and futures live cattle, comprising the period from 10/2/2000 to 19/8/2014. It was noted that for the daily series, the contractual changes generate intertemporal breaks, resulting in the increased variance of the futures log-returns and the low optimal hedge ratio. For monthly series, it is concluded that the BEKK, followed by the unconditional beta are the best models when it comes to reduction of variance and maximization of the Sharpe ratio.O agronegócio brasileiro tem se destacado nos últimos anos por sua eficiência e pelo crescimento da produtividade, fundamentados em tecnologia, planejamento, gestão dos resultados e melhoria contínua de desempenho. No mercado do boi gordo, as oscilações apresentadas nos preços se apresentam como um risco que o produtor tem que minimizar para garantir o sucesso do seu negócio. Nesse cenário o mercado futuro tem se traduzido em um importante instrumento de hedge, mas um desafio com que se defronta é a identificação da proporção da produção que deve ser protegida. Assim, este artigo tem como objetivo comparar estatisticamente a performance (eficiência) de seis modelos para o cálculo da razão ótimade hedge no mercado Futuro de Boi Gordo brasileiro: Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários, BEKK, DCC de Tse e Tsui (2002), DCC de Engle e Sheppard (2001), Beta de Correlações Variantes no Tempo e o Beta Incondicional. As razões foram estimadas para os log-retornos das séries de preços diárias e mensais de boi gordo spot e futuro, compreendendo o período de 02/10/2000 a 19/08/2014. Constatou-se que para as séries diárias, as mudanças contratuais geram quebras intertemporais, fazendo com que a variância dos log-retornos futuros aumente e a razão ótima de hedgeseja baixa. Para séries mensais, conclui-se que o BEKK, seguido do Beta Incondicional são os melhores modelos quando se trata de redução de variância e maximização do Índice de SharpeengUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisUFMGBrasilFCE - DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS ADMINISTRATIVASICX - DEPARTAMENTO DE ESTATÍSTICAOrganizações Rurais & AgroindustriaisAgroindústriaHedging (Finanças)HedgeOptimal Hedge RatioLive CattleFutures MarketBEKKDCCA comparative study on different statistical models for calculating the optimal hedge ratio in the live cattle marketUm estudo comparativo de diferentes modelos estatísticos para cálculo da razão ótima de hedge no mercado de boi gordoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleFrank Magalhães de PinhoAri Francisco de Araújo JúniorMarcos Antônio de Camargosinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMGinstname:Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)instacron:UFMGORIGINALA COMPARATIVE STUDY ON DIFFERENT STATISTICAL MODELS FOR CALCULATING THE OPTIMAL HEDGE RATIO IN THE LIVE CATTLE MARKET.pdfA COMPARATIVE STUDY ON DIFFERENT STATISTICAL MODELS FOR CALCULATING THE OPTIMAL HEDGE RATIO IN THE LIVE CATTLE MARKET.pdfapplication/pdf4613578https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/46033/2/A%20COMPARATIVE%20STUDY%20ON%20DIFFERENT%20STATISTICAL%20MODELS%20FOR%20CALCULATING%20THE%20OPTIMAL%20HEDGE%20RATIO%20IN%20THE%20LIVE%20CATTLE%20MARKET.pdf57e7ef6573d0fed1e9cfa748c6456856MD52LICENSELicense.txtLicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82042https://repositorio.ufmg.br/bitstream/1843/46033/1/License.txtfa505098d172de0bc8864fc1287ffe22MD511843/460332022-10-06 11:52:15.813oai:repositorio.ufmg.br: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Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://repositorio.ufmg.br/oaiopendoar:2022-10-06T14:52:15Repositório Institucional da UFMG - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)false
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