Assessing hydrological alterations in a tropical basin using an adaptation of the ELOHA framework

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: THAMIRIS FONTOURA DE ARAUJO
Data de Publicação: 2024
Tipo de documento: Dissertação
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFMS
Texto Completo: https://repositorio.ufms.br/handle/123456789/8629
Resumo: A better understanding of the interplay between ecological responses, climate variability, and water resources management provides a robust resource for policymakers in refining environmental flow targets. However, studies encompassing streamflow alterations and their impacts on environmental flow targets are still scarce in many countries, especially under climate change scenarios. Here, the impacts of climate change on streamflow in a tropical watershed covering 362 km² in midwestern Brazil, which supplies water to nearly 34% of the approximately 900 thousand inhabitants, were investigated using an adapted version of the Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA) framework. The hydrological physically based SWAT+ model was used and calibrated to simulate the watershed’s hydrological response to three climate change scenarios from the seven General Circulation/Earth System models (GCM/ESM) provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6: SSP2-4.5 (moderate forcing), SSP3-7.0 (moderate to high forcing), and SSP5-8.5 (high forcing). The SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 exhibited the greatest hydrologic alterations in the median flows from 2015 to 2100, reaching a high alteration degree of 0.71 and 0.67, indicating higher frequency in high flow values; the SSP5-8.5 and baseline are mostly alike in terms of median flows despite the hydrologic alteration reaching a moderate alteration degree of -0.51. The findings show an increasing trend in median flow over the future period in the three scenarios due to an increase in the frequency of extreme flood events. The SSP5-85 exhibited the most vulnerability to an extreme low flow event. It was observed an average of 142 (SSP2-4.5), 150 (SSP3-7.0), and 136 days (SSP5-8.5) of low precipitation (< 1mm) to trigger periods of extreme low flow, which are streamflow values lower than 10% of daily flows for the period on the basin. According to the scenarios, shifts in hydrological frequencies showed a stronger correlation to precipitation patterns than to evapotranspiration. The hydrological shifts in the frequency of floods and droughts impacts on the life cycles of species, community diversity, and habitat conditions (including temperature, dissolved oxygen levels, and accessibility for aquatic and terrestrial species). Moreover, these changes have significant implications for water service management, requiring continuous revisions of water plans and regulations due to the variability in the streamflow and water quality. This study also highlights the challenges of fully implementing the framework in Brazil, as well as emphasized the importance and the need of similar research to enhance water resources management and decision making, mainly in the context of water insecurity. Keywords: Hydrological Changes; Water supply; Future Projections.
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spelling 2024-04-02T19:29:36Z2024-04-02T19:29:36Z2024https://repositorio.ufms.br/handle/123456789/8629A better understanding of the interplay between ecological responses, climate variability, and water resources management provides a robust resource for policymakers in refining environmental flow targets. However, studies encompassing streamflow alterations and their impacts on environmental flow targets are still scarce in many countries, especially under climate change scenarios. Here, the impacts of climate change on streamflow in a tropical watershed covering 362 km² in midwestern Brazil, which supplies water to nearly 34% of the approximately 900 thousand inhabitants, were investigated using an adapted version of the Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA) framework. The hydrological physically based SWAT+ model was used and calibrated to simulate the watershed’s hydrological response to three climate change scenarios from the seven General Circulation/Earth System models (GCM/ESM) provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6: SSP2-4.5 (moderate forcing), SSP3-7.0 (moderate to high forcing), and SSP5-8.5 (high forcing). The SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 exhibited the greatest hydrologic alterations in the median flows from 2015 to 2100, reaching a high alteration degree of 0.71 and 0.67, indicating higher frequency in high flow values; the SSP5-8.5 and baseline are mostly alike in terms of median flows despite the hydrologic alteration reaching a moderate alteration degree of -0.51. The findings show an increasing trend in median flow over the future period in the three scenarios due to an increase in the frequency of extreme flood events. The SSP5-85 exhibited the most vulnerability to an extreme low flow event. It was observed an average of 142 (SSP2-4.5), 150 (SSP3-7.0), and 136 days (SSP5-8.5) of low precipitation (< 1mm) to trigger periods of extreme low flow, which are streamflow values lower than 10% of daily flows for the period on the basin. According to the scenarios, shifts in hydrological frequencies showed a stronger correlation to precipitation patterns than to evapotranspiration. The hydrological shifts in the frequency of floods and droughts impacts on the life cycles of species, community diversity, and habitat conditions (including temperature, dissolved oxygen levels, and accessibility for aquatic and terrestrial species). Moreover, these changes have significant implications for water service management, requiring continuous revisions of water plans and regulations due to the variability in the streamflow and water quality. This study also highlights the challenges of fully implementing the framework in Brazil, as well as emphasized the importance and the need of similar research to enhance water resources management and decision making, mainly in the context of water insecurity. Keywords: Hydrological Changes; Water supply; Future Projections.Uma compreensão mais profunda da interação entre as respostas ecológicas, a variabilidade climática e o gerenciamento dos recursos hídricos fornece uma base sólida para os formuladores de políticas refinarem metas de vazão ambiental. No entanto, estudos abrangendo alterações no fluxo dos cursos d'água e seus impactos nas vazões ambientais ainda são escassos em muitos países, especialmente sob cenários de mudança climática. Neste trabalho, os impactos das mudanças climáticas na vazão dos cursos d'água em uma bacia tropical que abrange 362 km² no centro-oeste do Brasil, abastecendo água para quase 34% dos aproximadamente 900 mil habitantes, foram investigados usando uma versão adaptada do framework Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA). O modelo hidrológico baseado em princípios físicos, SWAT+, foi usado e calibrado para simular a resposta hidrológica da bacia aos três cenários de mudança climática dos sete modelos do General Circulation/Earth System (GCM/ESM) fornecidos pelo Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6: SSP2-4.5 (forçamento moderado), SSP3-7.0 (forçamento moderado a alto) e SSP5-8.5 (forçamento alto). O SSP2-4.5 e o SSP3-7.0 apresentaram as maiores alterações hidrológicas nas vazões medianas de 2015 a 2100, alcançando um grau de alteração alto de 0,71 e 0,67, indicando maior frequência em valores de vazões altas; o cenário SSP5-8.5 e a base histórica são em sua maioria semelhantes em termos de vazões medianas, apesar da alteração hidrológica atingir um grau de alteração moderado de -0,51. Os resultados mostram uma tendência crescente nas vazões medianas ao longo do período futuro nos três cenários devido a um aumento na frequência de eventos de inundação extrema. O SSP5-8.5 mostrou a maior vulnerabilidade a um evento de vazão extremamente baixa. Observou-se uma média de 142 (SSP2-4.5), 150 (SSP3-7.0) e 136 dias (SSP5-8.5) de baixa precipitação (< 1 mm) para desencadear períodos de vazão extremamente baixa, que são valores de vazão inferiores a 10% dos valores diários para o período na bacia. De acordo com os cenários, as mudanças nas frequências hidrológicas mostraram uma correlação mais forte com os padrões de precipitação do que com a evapotranspiração. As mudanças hidrológicas na frequência de enchentes e secas impactam nos ciclos de vida das espécies, na diversidade da comunidade e nas condições do habitat (incluindo temperatura, níveis de oxigênio dissolvido e acessibilidade para espécies aquáticas e terrestres). Além disso, essas mudanças têm implicações significativas para o gerenciamento dos serviços de distribuição de água, exigindo revisões contínuas de planos e regulamentos devido à variabilidade no fluxo dos cursos d'água e na qualidade da água. Este estudo também destaca os desafios de implementar completamente o framework no Brasil, bem como enfatiza a importância e a necessidade de pesquisas semelhantes para aprimorar o gerenciamento dos recursos hídricos e a tomada de decisões, principalmente no contexto da insegurança hídrica. Palavras-chave: Mudanças Hidrológicas; Abastecimento de Água; Projeções Futuras.Fundação Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do SulUFMSBrasilHydrological Changes, Water supply, Future ProjectionsAssessing hydrological alterations in a tropical basin using an adaptation of the ELOHA frameworkinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesisPaulo Tarso Sanches de OliveiraTHAMIRIS FONTOURA DE ARAUJOinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessporreponame:Repositório Institucional da UFMSinstname:Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS)instacron:UFMSORIGINALdissertation_ARAUJO_TF_correcao.pdfdissertation_ARAUJO_TF_correcao.pdfapplication/pdf4559276https://repositorio.ufms.br/bitstream/123456789/8629/-1/dissertation_ARAUJO_TF_correcao.pdf831720df5fb07076543d871ff5bb81cfMD5-1123456789/86292024-04-02 15:29:37.837oai:repositorio.ufms.br:123456789/8629Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://repositorio.ufms.br/oai/requestri.prograd@ufms.bropendoar:21242024-04-02T19:29:37Repositório Institucional da UFMS - Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS)false
dc.title.pt_BR.fl_str_mv Assessing hydrological alterations in a tropical basin using an adaptation of the ELOHA framework
title Assessing hydrological alterations in a tropical basin using an adaptation of the ELOHA framework
spellingShingle Assessing hydrological alterations in a tropical basin using an adaptation of the ELOHA framework
THAMIRIS FONTOURA DE ARAUJO
Hydrological Changes, Water supply, Future Projections
title_short Assessing hydrological alterations in a tropical basin using an adaptation of the ELOHA framework
title_full Assessing hydrological alterations in a tropical basin using an adaptation of the ELOHA framework
title_fullStr Assessing hydrological alterations in a tropical basin using an adaptation of the ELOHA framework
title_full_unstemmed Assessing hydrological alterations in a tropical basin using an adaptation of the ELOHA framework
title_sort Assessing hydrological alterations in a tropical basin using an adaptation of the ELOHA framework
author THAMIRIS FONTOURA DE ARAUJO
author_facet THAMIRIS FONTOURA DE ARAUJO
author_role author
dc.contributor.advisor1.fl_str_mv Paulo Tarso Sanches de Oliveira
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv THAMIRIS FONTOURA DE ARAUJO
contributor_str_mv Paulo Tarso Sanches de Oliveira
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Hydrological Changes, Water supply, Future Projections
topic Hydrological Changes, Water supply, Future Projections
description A better understanding of the interplay between ecological responses, climate variability, and water resources management provides a robust resource for policymakers in refining environmental flow targets. However, studies encompassing streamflow alterations and their impacts on environmental flow targets are still scarce in many countries, especially under climate change scenarios. Here, the impacts of climate change on streamflow in a tropical watershed covering 362 km² in midwestern Brazil, which supplies water to nearly 34% of the approximately 900 thousand inhabitants, were investigated using an adapted version of the Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA) framework. The hydrological physically based SWAT+ model was used and calibrated to simulate the watershed’s hydrological response to three climate change scenarios from the seven General Circulation/Earth System models (GCM/ESM) provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6: SSP2-4.5 (moderate forcing), SSP3-7.0 (moderate to high forcing), and SSP5-8.5 (high forcing). The SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 exhibited the greatest hydrologic alterations in the median flows from 2015 to 2100, reaching a high alteration degree of 0.71 and 0.67, indicating higher frequency in high flow values; the SSP5-8.5 and baseline are mostly alike in terms of median flows despite the hydrologic alteration reaching a moderate alteration degree of -0.51. The findings show an increasing trend in median flow over the future period in the three scenarios due to an increase in the frequency of extreme flood events. The SSP5-85 exhibited the most vulnerability to an extreme low flow event. It was observed an average of 142 (SSP2-4.5), 150 (SSP3-7.0), and 136 days (SSP5-8.5) of low precipitation (< 1mm) to trigger periods of extreme low flow, which are streamflow values lower than 10% of daily flows for the period on the basin. According to the scenarios, shifts in hydrological frequencies showed a stronger correlation to precipitation patterns than to evapotranspiration. The hydrological shifts in the frequency of floods and droughts impacts on the life cycles of species, community diversity, and habitat conditions (including temperature, dissolved oxygen levels, and accessibility for aquatic and terrestrial species). Moreover, these changes have significant implications for water service management, requiring continuous revisions of water plans and regulations due to the variability in the streamflow and water quality. This study also highlights the challenges of fully implementing the framework in Brazil, as well as emphasized the importance and the need of similar research to enhance water resources management and decision making, mainly in the context of water insecurity. Keywords: Hydrological Changes; Water supply; Future Projections.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2024-04-02T19:29:36Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2024-04-02T19:29:36Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2024
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dc.publisher.country.fl_str_mv Brasil
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Fundação Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul
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