Análise econômico-financeira da implantação de sistemas integrados para a produção de novilhas leiteiras

• Autor(a) principal: Oliveira Júnior, Orlando Lúcio de
• Data de Publicação: 2015
• Tipo de documento: Dissertação
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Repositório Institucional da UFMT
• Texto Completo: http://ri.ufmt.br/handle/1/2294
• topic: Análise de risco; Análise de sensibilidade; Integração lavoura - pecuária floresta; Pecuária leiteira; Taxa interna de retorno; Valor presente líquido; CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ZOOTECNIA; Crop -l ivestock - forest integration; Dairy farming; Internal rate of return; Net presente value; Risk analysis; Sensitivity analysis

The integrated production systems are characterized by optimal use of productive resources in order to maximize the use of soil, plant and animal, ensuring income and stimulating environmental preservation. However, its adoption is still limited primarily by the lack of economic feasibility studies of these systems. Thus, this study aims to assess the economic feasibility of the implementation of integrated systems for the production of dairy heifers in northern Mato Grosso, getting the economic profitability indicators such as net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (TIR) and the invested capital recovery time (discounted Payback). The item that has the most impact on economic outcomes was determined by the sensitivity analysis. The financial risk was determined by Monte Carlo simulation, where the probability of failure of the activity was observed in the face of price fluctuations occurred in the market. The evaluated system were: crop-livestock integration system (CLI) and crop-livestock-forest integration system (CLFI) with planting two rows of double rows of eucalyptus only on the sides, distant 52 meters each other. This setting is part of the experimental base where they were generated the crop yield data, livestock and forest, used to adjust a mirrored situation in producer reality. Designed in this situation, the field of exploration was 14 years for an area of 50 ha for each system. The cash flow spreadsheets considered a period from 2010 to 2015, based on data collected on experimental basis. NPVs were calculated applying discount rates of 6, 8, 10 and 12% per year. Both systems had a positive NPV when subjected to a rate of 10% pa. The IRR was 11,37% and 10,73% for the CLIS and CLFIS systems, respectively. Finance capital invested was recovered after 8 years and 8 month for CLIS and after 8 years and 3 months for the CLFIS. The most sensitive category to price changes was the selling price of the heifers with 4 months of confirmed pregnancy. The designed systems showed low probability of failure subjected to a rate of 10% per year for CLIS e 8% for CLFIS. Both systems are economically viable but cannot be compared because they are different technology packages and each producer or investor should choose the system that best suits their reality.