Assessment of a trap based Aedes aegypti surveillance program using mathematical modeling.

• Main Author: Lana, Raquel Martins
• Publication Date: 2018
• Other Authors: Morais, Maíra Moreira, Lima, Tiago França Melo de, Carneiro, Tiago Garcia de Senna, Stolerman, Lucas Martins, Santos, Jefferson Pereira Caldas dos, Cortés, José Joaquín Carvajal, Eiras, Álvaro Eduardo, Codeço, Cláudia Torres
• Format: Article
• Language: eng
• Source: Repositório Institucional da UFOP
• Download full: http://www.repositorio.ufop.br/handle/123456789/10325

The goal of this study was to assess the goodness-of-fit of theoretical models of population dynamics of Aedes aegypti to trap data collected by a long term entomological surveillance program. The carrying capacity K of this vector was estimated at city and neighborhood level. Adult mosquito abundance was measured via adults collected weekly by a network of sticky traps (Mosquitraps) from January 2008 to December 2011 in Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brazil. K was the only free parameter estimated by the model. At the city level, the model with temperature as a driver captured the seasonal pattern of mosquito abundance. At the local level, we observed a spatial heterogeneity in the estimated carrying capacity between neighborhoods, weakly associated with environmental variables related to poor infrastructure. Model goodness-of-fit was influenced by the number of sticky traps, and suggests a minimum of 16 traps at the neighborhood level for surveillance.