Índices de extremos climáticos baseados na precipitação pluvial e influência de teleconexões no nordeste do Brasil

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Santos, Daris Correia dos
Data de Publicação: 2019
Tipo de documento: Tese
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB
Texto Completo: https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/29935
Resumo: Northeast Brazil (NEB) is an area very vulnerable to droughts and high climatic variability, susceptible to high temperatures and irregular rains. Therefore, this study investigates the influence of global scale teleconnections that affect precipitation in the NEB, providing a better understanding of the oceanic and atmospheric effects on the internal climatic variability in order to detect changes in the precipitation pattern, based on precipitation data of 522 grid points of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre- GPCC, 1901-2013; 512 grid points of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite, TRMM 3B42, from 1998-2016, and observed data from 368 meteorological stations, from the National Water Agency (ANA) and National Meteorological Institute (INMET), from 1965-2017 and data of atmospheric teleconnections from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The Principal Components Analysis (PCA) extracted the most relevant variables explaining the variance of each Cluster for the spatial and temporal characterization and the Pearson coefficient investigated the degree of correlation of the climatic extremes indexes with the teleconnections, considering the levels of significance of 0.1, 0.5 and 0.01 and by means of the wavelet transform, the wavelet cross-spectrum and the wavelet coherence we detected significant periodicities. The results show that the index Days Consecutive Dry (CDD) derived from daily rainfall satellite TRMM 3B42 correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Multivariate Index ENSO (MEI) and Niño Niño Index (ONI) indicate the increase of drought periods in NEB. In shorter periods, the local convection, homogeneous regions in the most favorable periods of drought, is strongly impacted by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Antarctica Oscillation (AAO); and the homogeneous regions most susceptible to extreme precipitation, are impacted by SOI, Tropical North Atlantic (TNAI) and Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI). The annual precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT) from the GPCC suggests that the climatic variability of the NEB is modulated by the PDO + AMO acting simultaneously in the cold phase. The observed data shows that the most propitious areas suffer drought brunt of the AAO and Index of Global Temperature Land-Ocean (LOTI). Wavelet analysis identified significant periodicities between coupling indexes of climatic extremes and oceanic and atmospheric patterns indicating changes in climatic indexes and climatic variability of the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean and also influence of external forces in the evolution of climatic patterns in areas susceptible to events in the NEB. The Anomalies of the Sea Surface Temp (SST) in the Niño indices present great variability in the periodicity cycles of the climatic conditions in the Equatorial Pacific and influence the variability of deep tropical convection and atmospheric circulation. Finally, this information becomes useful for improvements in long-term climate predictions; implementation of strategies for adaptation and mitigation of extreme events, such as droughts and floods and agricultural planning.
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spelling Índices de extremos climáticos baseados na precipitação pluvial e influência de teleconexões no nordeste do BrasilTeleconexões atmosféricasCorrelaçãoClusterWaveletExtremos climáticosAtmospheric teleconnectionsCorrelationClimatic extremCNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVILNortheast Brazil (NEB) is an area very vulnerable to droughts and high climatic variability, susceptible to high temperatures and irregular rains. Therefore, this study investigates the influence of global scale teleconnections that affect precipitation in the NEB, providing a better understanding of the oceanic and atmospheric effects on the internal climatic variability in order to detect changes in the precipitation pattern, based on precipitation data of 522 grid points of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre- GPCC, 1901-2013; 512 grid points of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite, TRMM 3B42, from 1998-2016, and observed data from 368 meteorological stations, from the National Water Agency (ANA) and National Meteorological Institute (INMET), from 1965-2017 and data of atmospheric teleconnections from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The Principal Components Analysis (PCA) extracted the most relevant variables explaining the variance of each Cluster for the spatial and temporal characterization and the Pearson coefficient investigated the degree of correlation of the climatic extremes indexes with the teleconnections, considering the levels of significance of 0.1, 0.5 and 0.01 and by means of the wavelet transform, the wavelet cross-spectrum and the wavelet coherence we detected significant periodicities. The results show that the index Days Consecutive Dry (CDD) derived from daily rainfall satellite TRMM 3B42 correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Multivariate Index ENSO (MEI) and Niño Niño Index (ONI) indicate the increase of drought periods in NEB. In shorter periods, the local convection, homogeneous regions in the most favorable periods of drought, is strongly impacted by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Antarctica Oscillation (AAO); and the homogeneous regions most susceptible to extreme precipitation, are impacted by SOI, Tropical North Atlantic (TNAI) and Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI). The annual precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT) from the GPCC suggests that the climatic variability of the NEB is modulated by the PDO + AMO acting simultaneously in the cold phase. The observed data shows that the most propitious areas suffer drought brunt of the AAO and Index of Global Temperature Land-Ocean (LOTI). Wavelet analysis identified significant periodicities between coupling indexes of climatic extremes and oceanic and atmospheric patterns indicating changes in climatic indexes and climatic variability of the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean and also influence of external forces in the evolution of climatic patterns in areas susceptible to events in the NEB. The Anomalies of the Sea Surface Temp (SST) in the Niño indices present great variability in the periodicity cycles of the climatic conditions in the Equatorial Pacific and influence the variability of deep tropical convection and atmospheric circulation. Finally, this information becomes useful for improvements in long-term climate predictions; implementation of strategies for adaptation and mitigation of extreme events, such as droughts and floods and agricultural planning.Fundação de Apoio à Pesquisa do Estado da Paraíba - FAPESQO Nordeste do Brasil (NEB) é uma área bastante vulnerável a episódios de secas e elevada variabilidade climática, susceptível a elevadas temperaturas e chuvas irregulares. Portanto, este estudo investiga a influência das teleconexões de escala global que afetam a precipitação no NEB, proporcionando uma melhor compreensão dos efeitos oceânicos e atmosféricos sobre a variabilidade climática interna de modo a detectar mudanças no padrão de precipitação, com base em dados de precipitação provenientes de 522 pontos de grade do Global Precipitation Climatology Centre- GPCC, de 1901-2013; 512 pontos de grade do satélite Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission- TRMM 3B42, de 1998-2016 e dados observados de 368 estações meteorológicas, oriundos da Agência Nacional das Águas (ANA) e Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET), de 1965-2017 e dados de teleconexões atmosféricas oriundas do National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Usando o Rclimdex foram calculados onze índices de extremos climáticos decorrentes da precipitação diária recomendados pelos Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). A Análise de Componentes Principais (PCA) extraiu as variáveis mais relevantes explicando a variância de cada Cluster para a caracterização espacial e temporal, enquanto o coeficiente de Pearson averigou o grau de correlação dos índices de extermos climáticos com os de teleconexões, considerando os níveis de significância de 0.1, 0.5 e 0.01 e por meio da Transformada de wavelet, do espectro cruzado wavelet e da coerência wavelet detectou-se periodicidades significantes. Os resultados mostram que o índice Dias Consecutivos Secos (CDD) derivado da precipitação diária do satélite TRMM 3B42 correlacionado com a Oscilação Decadal do Pacífico (PDO), Oscilação Multidecadal do Atlântico (AMO), Índice de Oscilação Sul (SOI), Índice Multivariado ENSO (MEI) e Índice Oceânico Niño (ONI) indicam o aumento de períodos de estiagem no NEB. Em períodos mais curtos, a convecção local, nas regiões homogêneas mais favoráveis a períodos de estiagem, é fortemente impactada pela Oscilação Quase-Bianual (QBO) e Oscilação Antarctica (AAO); e as regiões homogêneas mais susceptíveis a precipitações extremas, são impactadas pela SOI, Atlântico Tropical Norte (TNAI) e Atlântico Tropical Sul (TSAI). A precipitação anual em dias úmidos (PRCPTOT) proveniente do GPCC sugere que a variabilidade climática do NEB é modulada pela PDO+AMO atuando simultaneamente na fase fria. Os dados observados mostram que as áreas mais propícias a estiagem sofrem maior impacto da AAO e Índice da Temperatura Global Terra-Oceano (LOTI). A análise de wavelet identificou diferentes periodicidades significantes entre o acoplamento dos índices de extremos climáticos e os padrões oceânicos e atmosféricos indicando mudanças nos índices climáticos e variabilidade climática do oceano Pacífico e Atlântico e também influência de forçamentos externos na evolução dos padrões climáticos nas áreas susceptíveis a eventos secos e chuvosos no NEB. As anomalias da Temparatura da Superfície do Mar (TSM) nos índices Niño apresentam grande variabilidade nos ciclos de periodicidade das condições climáticas no Pacífico Equatorial e influenciam a variabilidade da convecção tropical profunda e da circulação atmosférica. Por fim, essas informações se tornam úteis para melhorias nas previsões climáticas a longo prazo; implantação de estratégias de adaptação e mitigação de eventos extremos, como secas e inundações e planejamento agrícola.Universidade Federal da ParaíbaBrasilEngenharia Civil e AmbientalPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil e AmbientalUFPBSantos, Celso Augusto Guimarãeshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/4223859537570442Santos, Daris Correia dos2024-03-27T10:27:45Z2022-07-312024-03-27T10:27:45Z2019-08-22info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesishttps://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/29935porAttribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazilhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/br/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPBinstname:Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB)instacron:UFPB2024-03-28T06:11:12Zoai:repositorio.ufpb.br:123456789/29935Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertaçõeshttps://repositorio.ufpb.br/PUBhttp://tede.biblioteca.ufpb.br:8080/oai/requestdiretoria@ufpb.br|| diretoria@ufpb.bropendoar:2024-03-28T06:11:12Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB - Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Índices de extremos climáticos baseados na precipitação pluvial e influência de teleconexões no nordeste do Brasil
title Índices de extremos climáticos baseados na precipitação pluvial e influência de teleconexões no nordeste do Brasil
spellingShingle Índices de extremos climáticos baseados na precipitação pluvial e influência de teleconexões no nordeste do Brasil
Santos, Daris Correia dos
Teleconexões atmosféricas
Correlação
Cluster
Wavelet
Extremos climáticos
Atmospheric teleconnections
Correlation
Climatic extrem
CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVIL
title_short Índices de extremos climáticos baseados na precipitação pluvial e influência de teleconexões no nordeste do Brasil
title_full Índices de extremos climáticos baseados na precipitação pluvial e influência de teleconexões no nordeste do Brasil
title_fullStr Índices de extremos climáticos baseados na precipitação pluvial e influência de teleconexões no nordeste do Brasil
title_full_unstemmed Índices de extremos climáticos baseados na precipitação pluvial e influência de teleconexões no nordeste do Brasil
title_sort Índices de extremos climáticos baseados na precipitação pluvial e influência de teleconexões no nordeste do Brasil
author Santos, Daris Correia dos
author_facet Santos, Daris Correia dos
author_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Santos, Celso Augusto Guimarães
http://lattes.cnpq.br/4223859537570442
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Santos, Daris Correia dos
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Teleconexões atmosféricas
Correlação
Cluster
Wavelet
Extremos climáticos
Atmospheric teleconnections
Correlation
Climatic extrem
CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVIL
topic Teleconexões atmosféricas
Correlação
Cluster
Wavelet
Extremos climáticos
Atmospheric teleconnections
Correlation
Climatic extrem
CNPQ::ENGENHARIAS::ENGENHARIA CIVIL
description Northeast Brazil (NEB) is an area very vulnerable to droughts and high climatic variability, susceptible to high temperatures and irregular rains. Therefore, this study investigates the influence of global scale teleconnections that affect precipitation in the NEB, providing a better understanding of the oceanic and atmospheric effects on the internal climatic variability in order to detect changes in the precipitation pattern, based on precipitation data of 522 grid points of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre- GPCC, 1901-2013; 512 grid points of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite, TRMM 3B42, from 1998-2016, and observed data from 368 meteorological stations, from the National Water Agency (ANA) and National Meteorological Institute (INMET), from 1965-2017 and data of atmospheric teleconnections from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The Principal Components Analysis (PCA) extracted the most relevant variables explaining the variance of each Cluster for the spatial and temporal characterization and the Pearson coefficient investigated the degree of correlation of the climatic extremes indexes with the teleconnections, considering the levels of significance of 0.1, 0.5 and 0.01 and by means of the wavelet transform, the wavelet cross-spectrum and the wavelet coherence we detected significant periodicities. The results show that the index Days Consecutive Dry (CDD) derived from daily rainfall satellite TRMM 3B42 correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Multivariate Index ENSO (MEI) and Niño Niño Index (ONI) indicate the increase of drought periods in NEB. In shorter periods, the local convection, homogeneous regions in the most favorable periods of drought, is strongly impacted by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Antarctica Oscillation (AAO); and the homogeneous regions most susceptible to extreme precipitation, are impacted by SOI, Tropical North Atlantic (TNAI) and Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI). The annual precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT) from the GPCC suggests that the climatic variability of the NEB is modulated by the PDO + AMO acting simultaneously in the cold phase. The observed data shows that the most propitious areas suffer drought brunt of the AAO and Index of Global Temperature Land-Ocean (LOTI). Wavelet analysis identified significant periodicities between coupling indexes of climatic extremes and oceanic and atmospheric patterns indicating changes in climatic indexes and climatic variability of the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean and also influence of external forces in the evolution of climatic patterns in areas susceptible to events in the NEB. The Anomalies of the Sea Surface Temp (SST) in the Niño indices present great variability in the periodicity cycles of the climatic conditions in the Equatorial Pacific and influence the variability of deep tropical convection and atmospheric circulation. Finally, this information becomes useful for improvements in long-term climate predictions; implementation of strategies for adaptation and mitigation of extreme events, such as droughts and floods and agricultural planning.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019-08-22
2022-07-31
2024-03-27T10:27:45Z
2024-03-27T10:27:45Z
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis
format doctoralThesis
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/29935
url https://repositorio.ufpb.br/jspui/handle/123456789/29935
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazil
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/br/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazil
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/br/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal da Paraíba
Brasil
Engenharia Civil e Ambiental
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil e Ambiental
UFPB
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidade Federal da Paraíba
Brasil
Engenharia Civil e Ambiental
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil e Ambiental
UFPB
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB
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instacron:UFPB
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institution UFPB
reponame_str Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB
collection Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB
repository.name.fl_str_mv Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFPB - Universidade Federal da Paraíba (UFPB)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv diretoria@ufpb.br|| diretoria@ufpb.br
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