DETERMINANTS OF CORPORATE RATINGS IN THE OIL INDUSTRY: THE REPSOL-YPF CASE
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2013 |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | REAd (Porto Alegre. Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/read/article/view/38977 |
Resumo: | The financing patterns of corporations have changed over the last fifteen years. Bond financing has superseded bank loans. In addition, the deeper integration of worldwide financial markets has diffused risk assessment mechanisms, which were previously restricted to industrialized countries. In this context, credit ratings issued by rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s play an important role in the procurement of financing. A rating is referred to as “… an opinion about an issuer’s future capability, legal responsibility, and willingness to meet the payment of the principal and interest of a specific bond…” (Moody’s 1999a, p.5).This paper aims to verify whether or not it is possible to predict corporate ratings based on a set of financial indicators. We study the case of Repsol-YPF, a world-renowned Argentine oil company. The ordered logit model was used as estimation method, as it yields better results than the more commonly used least squares and probit models. From a small set of financial indicators, the most relevant appear to be earnings (EBITDA) and short term debt over total debt (STD/TD). This small number of financial indicators was able to reasonably predict Repsol-YPF corporate ratings, suggesting than ratings may not have information in addition to that publicly available. |
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DETERMINANTS OF CORPORATE RATINGS IN THE OIL INDUSTRY: THE REPSOL-YPF CASEDETERMINANTES DE LOS RATINGS CORPORATIVOS EN LA INDUSTRIA PETROLÍFERA: EL CASO DE LA REPSOL-YPFDETERMINANTES DOS RATINGS CORPORATIVOS NA INDÚSTRIA PETROLÍFERA: O CASO DA REPSOL-YPFRepsol-YPFArgentinaratingfinanças corporativasindicadores financeirosRepsol-YPFArgentineratingcorporate financefinancial indicatorsRepsol-YPFArgentinaclasificaciónfinanzas corporativasindicadores financierosThe financing patterns of corporations have changed over the last fifteen years. Bond financing has superseded bank loans. In addition, the deeper integration of worldwide financial markets has diffused risk assessment mechanisms, which were previously restricted to industrialized countries. In this context, credit ratings issued by rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s play an important role in the procurement of financing. A rating is referred to as “… an opinion about an issuer’s future capability, legal responsibility, and willingness to meet the payment of the principal and interest of a specific bond…” (Moody’s 1999a, p.5).This paper aims to verify whether or not it is possible to predict corporate ratings based on a set of financial indicators. We study the case of Repsol-YPF, a world-renowned Argentine oil company. The ordered logit model was used as estimation method, as it yields better results than the more commonly used least squares and probit models. From a small set of financial indicators, the most relevant appear to be earnings (EBITDA) and short term debt over total debt (STD/TD). This small number of financial indicators was able to reasonably predict Repsol-YPF corporate ratings, suggesting than ratings may not have information in addition to that publicly available.El patrón de financiamiento de empresas cambió en los últimos 15 años. Préstamos bancarios cediendo lugar a los títulos de deuda. A la vez, la profundidad de la integración del mercado financiero mundial trajo la difusión de mecanismos de evaluación de riesgo antes restrictos a los países desarrollados. En este contexto, los ratings de crédito emitidos por agencias de clasificación, como Standard & Poor'S y Moody's, pasaron a tener un papel importante en la obtención de la financiación. La clasificación se refiere la “...una opinión sobre la capacidad futura, la responsabilidad jurídica, y la intención de un emitente de efectuar, dentro del plazo, pagos del principal e intereses de un título específico de renta fija...” (MOODY'S, 1999la, p.5).El objetivo de este artículo es mostrar se es posible prever los ratings corporativos o de empresas a partir de un grupo de indicadores financieros. Los indicadores pertenecen la Repsol-YPF, empresa petrolífera argentina de notoriedad internacional. El método de estimación usado en modelos econométricos fue el ordered logit, que mostró mejores resultados que los modelos de mínimos cuadrados y probit. De un conjunto pequeño de indicadores financieros, los más relevantes parecen ser el EBITDA, Deuda de Corto Plazo sobre Deuda Total. Se concluyó que un pequeño número de indicadores financieros pudo prever los ratings corporativos de la Repsol-YPF, sugiriendo que ratings no traen informaciones adicionales a aquella ya disponible en demostrativos contables y financieros.TEXTO (PDF) EM INGLÊSO padrão de financiamento de empresas mudou nos últimos 15 anos. Empréstimos bancários cedendo lugar aos títulos de dívida. Ao mesmo tempo, o aprofundamento da integração do mercado financeiro mundial trouxe a difusão de mecanismos de avaliação de risco antes restritos aos países desenvolvidos. Neste contexto, os ratings de crédito emitidos por agências de classificação, como a Standard & Poor´s e Moody´s, passaram a ter um papel importante na obtenção do financiamento. O rating refere-se a “...uma opinião sobre a capacidade futura, a responsabilidade jurídica, e a vontade de um emitente de efetuar, dentro do prazo, pagamentos do principal e juros de um título específico de renda fixa...” (MOODY’S, 1999a, p.5).O objetivo deste artigo é mostrar se é possível prever os ratings corporativos ou de empresas a partir de um grupo de indicadores financeiros. Os indicadores pertencem a Repsol-YPF, empresa petrolífera argentina de notoriedade internacional. O método de estimação usado em modelos econométricos foi o ordered logit, que mostrou melhores resultados que os modelos de mínimos quadrados e probit. De um conjunto pequeno de indicadores financeiros, os mais relevantes parecem ser o EBITDA, Dívida de Curto Prazo sobre Dívida Total. Concluiu-se que um pequeno número de indicadores financeiros pôde prever os ratings corporativos da Repsol-YPF, sugerindo que ratings não trazem informações adicionais àquela já disponível em demonstrativos contábeis e financeiros.Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul2013-04-16info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionscientific articlearticulo científicoAvaliado pelos paresartigo científicoapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/read/article/view/38977Electronic Review of Administration; Vol. 16 No. 1 (2010): Edição 65 - jan/abr 2010; 70-90Revista Electrónica de Administración; Vol. 16 Núm. 1 (2010): Edição 65 - jan/abr 2010; 70-90Revista Eletrônica de Administração; v. 16 n. 1 (2010): Edição 65 - jan/abr 2010; 70-901413-23111980-4164reponame:REAd (Porto Alegre. Online)instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSporhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/read/article/view/38977/25011Bröker Bone, Rosemarieinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2016-10-25T17:53:40Zoai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/38977Revistahttp://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/read/indexPUBhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/read/oaiea_read@ufrgs.br1413-23111413-2311opendoar:2016-10-25T17:53:40REAd (Porto Alegre. Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
DETERMINANTS OF CORPORATE RATINGS IN THE OIL INDUSTRY: THE REPSOL-YPF CASE DETERMINANTES DE LOS RATINGS CORPORATIVOS EN LA INDUSTRIA PETROLÍFERA: EL CASO DE LA REPSOL-YPF DETERMINANTES DOS RATINGS CORPORATIVOS NA INDÚSTRIA PETROLÍFERA: O CASO DA REPSOL-YPF |
title |
DETERMINANTS OF CORPORATE RATINGS IN THE OIL INDUSTRY: THE REPSOL-YPF CASE |
spellingShingle |
DETERMINANTS OF CORPORATE RATINGS IN THE OIL INDUSTRY: THE REPSOL-YPF CASE Bröker Bone, Rosemarie Repsol-YPF Argentina rating finanças corporativas indicadores financeiros Repsol-YPF Argentine rating corporate finance financial indicators Repsol-YPF Argentina clasificación finanzas corporativas indicadores financieros |
title_short |
DETERMINANTS OF CORPORATE RATINGS IN THE OIL INDUSTRY: THE REPSOL-YPF CASE |
title_full |
DETERMINANTS OF CORPORATE RATINGS IN THE OIL INDUSTRY: THE REPSOL-YPF CASE |
title_fullStr |
DETERMINANTS OF CORPORATE RATINGS IN THE OIL INDUSTRY: THE REPSOL-YPF CASE |
title_full_unstemmed |
DETERMINANTS OF CORPORATE RATINGS IN THE OIL INDUSTRY: THE REPSOL-YPF CASE |
title_sort |
DETERMINANTS OF CORPORATE RATINGS IN THE OIL INDUSTRY: THE REPSOL-YPF CASE |
author |
Bröker Bone, Rosemarie |
author_facet |
Bröker Bone, Rosemarie |
author_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Bröker Bone, Rosemarie |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Repsol-YPF Argentina rating finanças corporativas indicadores financeiros Repsol-YPF Argentine rating corporate finance financial indicators Repsol-YPF Argentina clasificación finanzas corporativas indicadores financieros |
topic |
Repsol-YPF Argentina rating finanças corporativas indicadores financeiros Repsol-YPF Argentine rating corporate finance financial indicators Repsol-YPF Argentina clasificación finanzas corporativas indicadores financieros |
description |
The financing patterns of corporations have changed over the last fifteen years. Bond financing has superseded bank loans. In addition, the deeper integration of worldwide financial markets has diffused risk assessment mechanisms, which were previously restricted to industrialized countries. In this context, credit ratings issued by rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s play an important role in the procurement of financing. A rating is referred to as “… an opinion about an issuer’s future capability, legal responsibility, and willingness to meet the payment of the principal and interest of a specific bond…” (Moody’s 1999a, p.5).This paper aims to verify whether or not it is possible to predict corporate ratings based on a set of financial indicators. We study the case of Repsol-YPF, a world-renowned Argentine oil company. The ordered logit model was used as estimation method, as it yields better results than the more commonly used least squares and probit models. From a small set of financial indicators, the most relevant appear to be earnings (EBITDA) and short term debt over total debt (STD/TD). This small number of financial indicators was able to reasonably predict Repsol-YPF corporate ratings, suggesting than ratings may not have information in addition to that publicly available. |
publishDate |
2013 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2013-04-16 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion scientific article articulo científico Avaliado pelos pares artigo científico |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/read/article/view/38977 |
url |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/read/article/view/38977 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/read/article/view/38977/25011 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Electronic Review of Administration; Vol. 16 No. 1 (2010): Edição 65 - jan/abr 2010; 70-90 Revista Electrónica de Administración; Vol. 16 Núm. 1 (2010): Edição 65 - jan/abr 2010; 70-90 Revista Eletrônica de Administração; v. 16 n. 1 (2010): Edição 65 - jan/abr 2010; 70-90 1413-2311 1980-4164 reponame:REAd (Porto Alegre. Online) instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) instacron:UFRGS |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
instacron_str |
UFRGS |
institution |
UFRGS |
reponame_str |
REAd (Porto Alegre. Online) |
collection |
REAd (Porto Alegre. Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
REAd (Porto Alegre. Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
ea_read@ufrgs.br |
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1799766202418987008 |