THE PUBLIC DEBT OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE MINSKY’S FINANCIAL FRAGILITY HYPOTHESIS
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2018 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Análise Econômica (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/76936 |
Resumo: | In the light of the financial instability hypothesis (FIH) proposed by Minsky, this paper examines the cash flow of Rio Grande do Sul (RS)’s public debt, after 1998, when all public state debts were renegotiated with the federal government. The idea is to show that the performance of this cash flow was not able to stabilize or mitigate the RS’s public debt, but, on the contrary, it contributed to increase the RS’s public debt. Thus, adapting the FIH to the modus operandi of the public sector, it is elaborated, in an original way, the Financial Fragility of the Public Debt Index (FFPDI) to analyze the RS’s public debt during the period 1998-2014. The results of the FFPDI show that the RS’s public debt had: (i) a Ponzi structure from November 1998 to February 1999 and from April 2000 to August 2003, periods in which the debt indexer, IGP-DI, suffered severe elevations, especially due to the devaluation of the exchange rate; (ii) from March 1999 to March 2000 and from September 2003 to May 2013, the Index was characterized as speculative; and (iii) after June 2013 the FFPDI was considered hedge, i.e., the cash flow had certain margin of safety. |
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THE PUBLIC DEBT OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE MINSKY’S FINANCIAL FRAGILITY HYPOTHESISA DÍVIDA PÚBLICA DO RIO GRANDE DO SUL: UMA ANÁLISE SOB A ÓTICA DA HIPÓTESE DE FRAGILIDADE FINANCEIRA DE MINSKYDívida públicaRio Grande do SulMinskyTeoria pós-keynesianaE62H72H77Public debt. Rio Grande do Sul. Minsky. Post Keynesian TheoryE62H72H77In the light of the financial instability hypothesis (FIH) proposed by Minsky, this paper examines the cash flow of Rio Grande do Sul (RS)’s public debt, after 1998, when all public state debts were renegotiated with the federal government. The idea is to show that the performance of this cash flow was not able to stabilize or mitigate the RS’s public debt, but, on the contrary, it contributed to increase the RS’s public debt. Thus, adapting the FIH to the modus operandi of the public sector, it is elaborated, in an original way, the Financial Fragility of the Public Debt Index (FFPDI) to analyze the RS’s public debt during the period 1998-2014. The results of the FFPDI show that the RS’s public debt had: (i) a Ponzi structure from November 1998 to February 1999 and from April 2000 to August 2003, periods in which the debt indexer, IGP-DI, suffered severe elevations, especially due to the devaluation of the exchange rate; (ii) from March 1999 to March 2000 and from September 2003 to May 2013, the Index was characterized as speculative; and (iii) after June 2013 the FFPDI was considered hedge, i.e., the cash flow had certain margin of safety.À luz da hipótese de fragilidade financeira (HFF) de Minsky, o artigo analisa, a partir do processo de renegociação das dívidas estaduais com a União ocorrida em 1998, o fluxo de caixa da dívida pública do Rio Grande do Sul (RS), visando mostrar que a sua performance não conseguiu estabilizar ou reduzir a dívida pública gaúcha, mas, muito pelo contrário, contribui para elevá-la. Para tanto, adaptando-se a HFF para o modus operandi do setor público, é elaborado, de forma original, o Índice de Fragilidade Financeira da Dívida Pública (IFFDP) do RS para o período 1998-2014. Baseado no referido Índice, observa-se que a dívida pública do RS apresentou os seguintes comportamentos: (i) estrutura Ponzi entre novembro de 1998 e fevereiro de 1999 e abril de 2000 a agosto de 2003, períodos em que o indexador da dívida, IGP-DI, sofreu fortes elevações, sobretudo pela desvalorização da taxa de câmbio; (ii) entre março de 1999 e março de 2000 e setembro de 2003 a maio de 2013, o Índice caracterizou-se como Especulativo; e (iii) a partir de junho de 2013, o IFFDP passou a ser considerado Hedge, ou seja, o fluxo de caixa apresentou certa margem de segurança.UFRGS2018-11-25info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/7693610.22456/2176-5456.76936Análise Econômica; Vol. 36 No. 71 (2018): setembro de 2018Análise Econômica; v. 36 n. 71 (2018): setembro de 20182176-54560102-9924reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSporhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/76936/50825Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessFerrari Filho, FernandoPiccolotto, Volnei2018-11-26T00:01:30Zoai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/76936Revistahttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomicaPUBhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/oai||rae@ufrgs.br2176-54560102-9924opendoar:2018-11-26T00:01:30Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
THE PUBLIC DEBT OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE MINSKY’S FINANCIAL FRAGILITY HYPOTHESIS A DÍVIDA PÚBLICA DO RIO GRANDE DO SUL: UMA ANÁLISE SOB A ÓTICA DA HIPÓTESE DE FRAGILIDADE FINANCEIRA DE MINSKY |
title |
THE PUBLIC DEBT OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE MINSKY’S FINANCIAL FRAGILITY HYPOTHESIS |
spellingShingle |
THE PUBLIC DEBT OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE MINSKY’S FINANCIAL FRAGILITY HYPOTHESIS Ferrari Filho, Fernando Dívida pública Rio Grande do Sul Minsky Teoria pós-keynesiana E62 H72 H77 Public debt. Rio Grande do Sul. Minsky. Post Keynesian Theory E62 H72 H77 |
title_short |
THE PUBLIC DEBT OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE MINSKY’S FINANCIAL FRAGILITY HYPOTHESIS |
title_full |
THE PUBLIC DEBT OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE MINSKY’S FINANCIAL FRAGILITY HYPOTHESIS |
title_fullStr |
THE PUBLIC DEBT OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE MINSKY’S FINANCIAL FRAGILITY HYPOTHESIS |
title_full_unstemmed |
THE PUBLIC DEBT OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE MINSKY’S FINANCIAL FRAGILITY HYPOTHESIS |
title_sort |
THE PUBLIC DEBT OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE MINSKY’S FINANCIAL FRAGILITY HYPOTHESIS |
author |
Ferrari Filho, Fernando |
author_facet |
Ferrari Filho, Fernando Piccolotto, Volnei |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Piccolotto, Volnei |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Ferrari Filho, Fernando Piccolotto, Volnei |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Dívida pública Rio Grande do Sul Minsky Teoria pós-keynesiana E62 H72 H77 Public debt. Rio Grande do Sul. Minsky. Post Keynesian Theory E62 H72 H77 |
topic |
Dívida pública Rio Grande do Sul Minsky Teoria pós-keynesiana E62 H72 H77 Public debt. Rio Grande do Sul. Minsky. Post Keynesian Theory E62 H72 H77 |
description |
In the light of the financial instability hypothesis (FIH) proposed by Minsky, this paper examines the cash flow of Rio Grande do Sul (RS)’s public debt, after 1998, when all public state debts were renegotiated with the federal government. The idea is to show that the performance of this cash flow was not able to stabilize or mitigate the RS’s public debt, but, on the contrary, it contributed to increase the RS’s public debt. Thus, adapting the FIH to the modus operandi of the public sector, it is elaborated, in an original way, the Financial Fragility of the Public Debt Index (FFPDI) to analyze the RS’s public debt during the period 1998-2014. The results of the FFPDI show that the RS’s public debt had: (i) a Ponzi structure from November 1998 to February 1999 and from April 2000 to August 2003, periods in which the debt indexer, IGP-DI, suffered severe elevations, especially due to the devaluation of the exchange rate; (ii) from March 1999 to March 2000 and from September 2003 to May 2013, the Index was characterized as speculative; and (iii) after June 2013 the FFPDI was considered hedge, i.e., the cash flow had certain margin of safety. |
publishDate |
2018 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2018-11-25 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/76936 10.22456/2176-5456.76936 |
url |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/76936 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.22456/2176-5456.76936 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/76936/50825 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
UFRGS |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
UFRGS |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Análise Econômica; Vol. 36 No. 71 (2018): setembro de 2018 Análise Econômica; v. 36 n. 71 (2018): setembro de 2018 2176-5456 0102-9924 reponame:Análise Econômica (Online) instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) instacron:UFRGS |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
instacron_str |
UFRGS |
institution |
UFRGS |
reponame_str |
Análise Econômica (Online) |
collection |
Análise Econômica (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||rae@ufrgs.br |
_version_ |
1799766268104933376 |