DECOMPOSITION OF THE EFFECTS OF THE TERMS OF TRADE CHANGES ON THE BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY IN THE PERIOD FROM 2008 TO 2014

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Sass, Karina Simone
Data de Publicação: 2018
Outros Autores: Carvalho, Terciane Sabadini, Porsse, Alexandre Alves
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Análise Econômica (Online)
Texto Completo: https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/69751
Resumo: This study analyses the effects of terms of trade changes on the industry in a recent period of the Brazilian economy (2008 to 2014). The goal is to identify the most sensitive industries to terms of trade and its impacts on production and sectoral employment. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we have performed a historical simulation considering the observed values of the main macroeconomic variables including the terms of trade changes. Overall, the results indicated that the most affected sectors would be the ones related to heavy industry, natural resources intensive and labor intensive. The results also indicate that the terms of trade improvement in the period 2008-2011 was not relevant to the industry performance, while the terms of trade decrease in the period 2012-2014 was very important to the industrial performance.
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spelling DECOMPOSITION OF THE EFFECTS OF THE TERMS OF TRADE CHANGES ON THE BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY IN THE PERIOD FROM 2008 TO 2014DECOMPOSIÇÃO DOS EFEITOS DAS MUDANÇAS NOS TERMOS DE TROCA SOBRE A INDÚSTRIA BRASILEIRA NO PERÍODO DE 2008 A 2014Termos de trocaAnálise setorialEquilíbrio geral computávelC68D58F19Terms of tradeEconomy activity sectorsGeneral equilibriumC68D58F19This study analyses the effects of terms of trade changes on the industry in a recent period of the Brazilian economy (2008 to 2014). The goal is to identify the most sensitive industries to terms of trade and its impacts on production and sectoral employment. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we have performed a historical simulation considering the observed values of the main macroeconomic variables including the terms of trade changes. Overall, the results indicated that the most affected sectors would be the ones related to heavy industry, natural resources intensive and labor intensive. The results also indicate that the terms of trade improvement in the period 2008-2011 was not relevant to the industry performance, while the terms of trade decrease in the period 2012-2014 was very important to the industrial performance.Este artigo analisa os efeitos das variações dos termos de troca sobre a indústria em um período recente da economia brasileira (2008-2014). O objetivo é identificar os setores mais sensíveis a essas variações e os impactos na produção e no emprego. Utilizando-se um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável (EGC) dinâmico, realiza-se uma simulação histórica considerando os movimentos observados, no período compreendido entre 2008 e 2014, das principais variáveis macroeconômicas, incluindo-se as variações dos termos de troca. De maneira geral, os resultados indicam que os setores mais impactados são os intensivos em recursos naturais e mão de obra. Os resultados apontam também que a valorização dos termos de troca do período 2008-2011 não foi determinante para o desempenho setorial da indústria, enquanto que a queda ocorrida no período 2012-2014 se mostrou importante para o bom desempenho setorial da indústria.UFRGS2018-11-25info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/6975110.22456/2176-5456.69751Análise Econômica; Vol. 36 No. 71 (2018): setembro de 2018Análise Econômica; v. 36 n. 71 (2018): setembro de 20182176-54560102-9924reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSporhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/69751/50830Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessSass, Karina SimoneCarvalho, Terciane SabadiniPorsse, Alexandre Alves2018-11-26T00:01:30Zoai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/69751Revistahttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomicaPUBhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/oai||rae@ufrgs.br2176-54560102-9924opendoar:2018-11-26T00:01:30Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv DECOMPOSITION OF THE EFFECTS OF THE TERMS OF TRADE CHANGES ON THE BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY IN THE PERIOD FROM 2008 TO 2014
DECOMPOSIÇÃO DOS EFEITOS DAS MUDANÇAS NOS TERMOS DE TROCA SOBRE A INDÚSTRIA BRASILEIRA NO PERÍODO DE 2008 A 2014
title DECOMPOSITION OF THE EFFECTS OF THE TERMS OF TRADE CHANGES ON THE BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY IN THE PERIOD FROM 2008 TO 2014
spellingShingle DECOMPOSITION OF THE EFFECTS OF THE TERMS OF TRADE CHANGES ON THE BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY IN THE PERIOD FROM 2008 TO 2014
Sass, Karina Simone
Termos de troca
Análise setorial
Equilíbrio geral computável
C68
D58
F19
Terms of trade
Economy activity sectors
General equilibrium
C68
D58
F19
title_short DECOMPOSITION OF THE EFFECTS OF THE TERMS OF TRADE CHANGES ON THE BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY IN THE PERIOD FROM 2008 TO 2014
title_full DECOMPOSITION OF THE EFFECTS OF THE TERMS OF TRADE CHANGES ON THE BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY IN THE PERIOD FROM 2008 TO 2014
title_fullStr DECOMPOSITION OF THE EFFECTS OF THE TERMS OF TRADE CHANGES ON THE BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY IN THE PERIOD FROM 2008 TO 2014
title_full_unstemmed DECOMPOSITION OF THE EFFECTS OF THE TERMS OF TRADE CHANGES ON THE BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY IN THE PERIOD FROM 2008 TO 2014
title_sort DECOMPOSITION OF THE EFFECTS OF THE TERMS OF TRADE CHANGES ON THE BRAZILIAN INDUSTRY IN THE PERIOD FROM 2008 TO 2014
author Sass, Karina Simone
author_facet Sass, Karina Simone
Carvalho, Terciane Sabadini
Porsse, Alexandre Alves
author_role author
author2 Carvalho, Terciane Sabadini
Porsse, Alexandre Alves
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Sass, Karina Simone
Carvalho, Terciane Sabadini
Porsse, Alexandre Alves
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Termos de troca
Análise setorial
Equilíbrio geral computável
C68
D58
F19
Terms of trade
Economy activity sectors
General equilibrium
C68
D58
F19
topic Termos de troca
Análise setorial
Equilíbrio geral computável
C68
D58
F19
Terms of trade
Economy activity sectors
General equilibrium
C68
D58
F19
description This study analyses the effects of terms of trade changes on the industry in a recent period of the Brazilian economy (2008 to 2014). The goal is to identify the most sensitive industries to terms of trade and its impacts on production and sectoral employment. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we have performed a historical simulation considering the observed values of the main macroeconomic variables including the terms of trade changes. Overall, the results indicated that the most affected sectors would be the ones related to heavy industry, natural resources intensive and labor intensive. The results also indicate that the terms of trade improvement in the period 2008-2011 was not relevant to the industry performance, while the terms of trade decrease in the period 2012-2014 was very important to the industrial performance.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018-11-25
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/69751
10.22456/2176-5456.69751
url https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/69751
identifier_str_mv 10.22456/2176-5456.69751
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/69751/50830
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv UFRGS
publisher.none.fl_str_mv UFRGS
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Análise Econômica; Vol. 36 No. 71 (2018): setembro de 2018
Análise Econômica; v. 36 n. 71 (2018): setembro de 2018
2176-5456
0102-9924
reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)
instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
instacron:UFRGS
instname_str Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
instacron_str UFRGS
institution UFRGS
reponame_str Análise Econômica (Online)
collection Análise Econômica (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||rae@ufrgs.br
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