BEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: López-Domínguez, María de la Fe
Data de Publicação: 2011
Outros Autores: Levy-Carciente, Sary, Contreras, José, Paiva-Mata, Pedro César
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Análise Econômica (Online)
Texto Completo: https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/18272
Resumo: Energy largely determines the characteristics of the global economy, hence the importance of fully understanding the behavior of the oil market in its current geo-economic and political environment. Starting from the basic relations of the global oil market and their interactions with macroeconomic variables, a nonlinear dynamic, structural and systemic model for this market is developed, which simulates the price, production and consumption of oil, and the accumulation of inventories. Model tests show satisfactory performance in the simulation of the known past in a medium-term horizon, 1995-2008. Asensitivity study performed for the same period yield some interesting conclusions about the behavior of the global oil market, such as the irrelevance of the structural factors in the soaring rise in oil prices in 2008. 
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spelling BEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELBEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELOil marketSimulation modelSystem dynamicsC63C67Q47Oil market. Simulation model. System dynamics.C63C67Q47Energy largely determines the characteristics of the global economy, hence the importance of fully understanding the behavior of the oil market in its current geo-economic and political environment. Starting from the basic relations of the global oil market and their interactions with macroeconomic variables, a nonlinear dynamic, structural and systemic model for this market is developed, which simulates the price, production and consumption of oil, and the accumulation of inventories. Model tests show satisfactory performance in the simulation of the known past in a medium-term horizon, 1995-2008. Asensitivity study performed for the same period yield some interesting conclusions about the behavior of the global oil market, such as the irrelevance of the structural factors in the soaring rise in oil prices in 2008. Energy largely determines the characteristics of the global economy, hence the importance of fully understanding the behavior of the oil market in its current geo-economic and political environment. Starting from the basic relations of the global oil market and their interactions with macroeconomic variables, a nonlinear dynamic, structural and systemic model for this market is developed, which simulates the price, production and consumption of oil, and the accumulation of inventories. Model tests show satisfactory performance in the simulation of the known past in a medium-term horizon, 1995-2008. A sensitivity study performed for the same period yield some interesting conclusions about the behavior of the global oil market, such as the irrelevance of the structural factors in the soaring rise in oil prices in 2008.UFRGS2011-12-22info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/1827210.22456/2176-5456.18272Análise Econômica; Vol. 29 No. 56 (2011): setembro de 2011Análise Econômica; v. 29 n. 56 (2011): setembro de 20112176-54560102-9924reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSporhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/18272/14669Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessLópez-Domínguez, María de la FeLevy-Carciente, SaryContreras, JoséPaiva-Mata, Pedro César2013-10-10T17:52:02Zoai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/18272Revistahttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomicaPUBhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/oai||rae@ufrgs.br2176-54560102-9924opendoar:2013-10-10T17:52:02Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv BEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
BEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
title BEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
spellingShingle BEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
López-Domínguez, María de la Fe
Oil market
Simulation model
System dynamics
C63
C67
Q47
Oil market. Simulation model. System dynamics.
C63
C67
Q47
title_short BEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
title_full BEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
title_fullStr BEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
title_full_unstemmed BEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
title_sort BEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
author López-Domínguez, María de la Fe
author_facet López-Domínguez, María de la Fe
Levy-Carciente, Sary
Contreras, José
Paiva-Mata, Pedro César
author_role author
author2 Levy-Carciente, Sary
Contreras, José
Paiva-Mata, Pedro César
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv López-Domínguez, María de la Fe
Levy-Carciente, Sary
Contreras, José
Paiva-Mata, Pedro César
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Oil market
Simulation model
System dynamics
C63
C67
Q47
Oil market. Simulation model. System dynamics.
C63
C67
Q47
topic Oil market
Simulation model
System dynamics
C63
C67
Q47
Oil market. Simulation model. System dynamics.
C63
C67
Q47
description Energy largely determines the characteristics of the global economy, hence the importance of fully understanding the behavior of the oil market in its current geo-economic and political environment. Starting from the basic relations of the global oil market and their interactions with macroeconomic variables, a nonlinear dynamic, structural and systemic model for this market is developed, which simulates the price, production and consumption of oil, and the accumulation of inventories. Model tests show satisfactory performance in the simulation of the known past in a medium-term horizon, 1995-2008. Asensitivity study performed for the same period yield some interesting conclusions about the behavior of the global oil market, such as the irrelevance of the structural factors in the soaring rise in oil prices in 2008. 
publishDate 2011
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2011-12-22
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/18272
10.22456/2176-5456.18272
url https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/18272
identifier_str_mv 10.22456/2176-5456.18272
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/18272/14669
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv UFRGS
publisher.none.fl_str_mv UFRGS
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Análise Econômica; Vol. 29 No. 56 (2011): setembro de 2011
Análise Econômica; v. 29 n. 56 (2011): setembro de 2011
2176-5456
0102-9924
reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)
instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
instacron:UFRGS
instname_str Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
instacron_str UFRGS
institution UFRGS
reponame_str Análise Econômica (Online)
collection Análise Econômica (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||rae@ufrgs.br
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