THE IMPACT OF COMMERCIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA IN BRAZILIAN AGRIBUSINESS

• Autor(a) principal: Gelatti, Elisangela
• Data de Publicação: 2021
• Outros Autores: Coronel, Daniel Arruda, Gurgel, Angelo Costa, Feistel, Paulo Ricardo, Gabbi, Maiara Thais Tolfo
• Tipo de documento: Artigo
• Idioma: por
• Título da fonte: Análise Econômica (Online)
• Texto Completo: https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/93472
• topic: Agronegócio; Comércio Internacional; Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável; F14; Q17; C68.; agribusiness; international trade; computable general equilibrium model; F14; Q17; C68

This study aimed to analyze the impact of the commercial dispute betweenthe United States and China, in Brazilian agribusiness. In this sense, two simulationswere carried out to analyze the impact on the commercial flows (production, exports,imports, prices and well-being) of the sector, through the computable general equilibrium model (MEGC), more specifically the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP).Among the results, it was possible to highlight that the economic impacts for the exportvalues of Brazilian agribusiness would be positive only for the grain sector, because, inthe first simulation, with partial commercial protection, we observed a positive variation of 9.86% and, in the second simulation of a commercial dispute between China andthe United States with complete commercial protection, we observed a positive variation of 6.40%, evincing that the grain sector obtains gains from trade. These gains comefrom decline of bilateral trade between China and the United States and an increasein imports for their third trade partners, as in this case, Brazil, exporting more grains toChina. Nevertheless, for the other agribusiness sectors analyzed, the results obtainedfrom the proposed scenarios, in both simulations, are negative, being harmful to thesectors as fruit and vegetables, sugar cane and others, livestock and meat and agroindustry products, in which it is possible to verify a reduction in production of Brazilianagribusiness. This negative effect comes from the displacement of productive resources(land, capital, labor) of the several agricultural and livestock sectors in direction to thegrain sector, which is the main sector of exports from Brazil to China and competesdirectly with the USA in this market.