INFLUENCE OF EXCHANGE RATE AND WORLD INCOME ON EXPORTS OF ESPÍRITO SANTO STATE

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Monte, Edson Zambon
Data de Publicação: 2015
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Análise Econômica (Online)
Texto Completo: https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/31840
Resumo: The objective of this paper was to estimate the impacts of shocks on exchange rate and world income, in the exports of Espírito Santo State, using the methodology VAR/VECM. The results showed that: a) variables are cointegrated and world income affected significantly the exports in the long-term, while the exchange rate had a negative sign and was not significant; b) estimates of short-term cointegrating vector revealed that for the variable exports of short-term imbalances are corrected quickly. It doesn't happen for variables exchange rate and world income; c) the impulse-response functions show that a shock in the exchange rate has a negative impact on exports in almost all periods after the shock (contrary to economic theory) and world income affects positively exports; and, d) the decomposition analysis of variance showed that the world income is relatively more important that the exchange rate in explaining the forecast error variance of exports.
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spelling INFLUENCE OF EXCHANGE RATE AND WORLD INCOME ON EXPORTS OF ESPÍRITO SANTO STATEINFLUÊNCIA DA TAXA DE CÂMBIO E DA RENDA MUNDIAL NAS EXPORTAÇÕES DO ESTADO DO ESPÍRITO SANTOExportaçõesVAR/VECMEspírito Santo.C32F11F17.ExportsVAR/VECMEspírito Santo State.C32F11F17.The objective of this paper was to estimate the impacts of shocks on exchange rate and world income, in the exports of Espírito Santo State, using the methodology VAR/VECM. The results showed that: a) variables are cointegrated and world income affected significantly the exports in the long-term, while the exchange rate had a negative sign and was not significant; b) estimates of short-term cointegrating vector revealed that for the variable exports of short-term imbalances are corrected quickly. It doesn't happen for variables exchange rate and world income; c) the impulse-response functions show that a shock in the exchange rate has a negative impact on exports in almost all periods after the shock (contrary to economic theory) and world income affects positively exports; and, d) the decomposition analysis of variance showed that the world income is relatively more important that the exchange rate in explaining the forecast error variance of exports.Este trabalho objetiva estimar os impactos de choques na taxa de câmbio e na renda mundial sobre as exportações do Espírito Santo, utilizando a metodologia VAR/VECM. Os resultados demonstraram que: a) as variáveis são cointegradas, sendo que na equação de longo prazo a renda mundial afetou significantemente as exportações, enquanto a taxa de câmbio apresentou sinal negativo e foi não significativa; b) as estimativas de curto prazo do vetor de cointegração revelaram que, para a variável exportações, os desequilíbrios de curto prazo são corrigidos de forma relativamente rápida, o que não acontece para as variáveis taxa de câmbio e renda mundial; c) nas funções impulso-reposta verificou-se que um choque na taxa de câmbio tem efeitos negativos sobre as exportações em quase todos os períodos após o choque, contrário a teoria econômica, e a renda mundial afeta positivamente as exportações; e, d) a análise de decomposição da variância demonstrou que a renda mundial é relativamente mais importante que a taxa de câmbio na explicação da variância do erro de previsão das exportações.UFRGS2015-03-31info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/3184010.22456/2176-5456.31840Análise Econômica; Vol. 33 No. 63 (2015): março de 2015Análise Econômica; v. 33 n. 63 (2015): março de 20152176-54560102-9924reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSporhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/31840/33373Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessMonte, Edson Zambon2015-04-01T02:54:03Zoai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/31840Revistahttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomicaPUBhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/oai||rae@ufrgs.br2176-54560102-9924opendoar:2015-04-01T02:54:03Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv INFLUENCE OF EXCHANGE RATE AND WORLD INCOME ON EXPORTS OF ESPÍRITO SANTO STATE
INFLUÊNCIA DA TAXA DE CÂMBIO E DA RENDA MUNDIAL NAS EXPORTAÇÕES DO ESTADO DO ESPÍRITO SANTO
title INFLUENCE OF EXCHANGE RATE AND WORLD INCOME ON EXPORTS OF ESPÍRITO SANTO STATE
spellingShingle INFLUENCE OF EXCHANGE RATE AND WORLD INCOME ON EXPORTS OF ESPÍRITO SANTO STATE
Monte, Edson Zambon
Exportações
VAR/VECM
Espírito Santo.
C32
F11
F17.
Exports
VAR/VECM
Espírito Santo State.
C32
F11
F17.
title_short INFLUENCE OF EXCHANGE RATE AND WORLD INCOME ON EXPORTS OF ESPÍRITO SANTO STATE
title_full INFLUENCE OF EXCHANGE RATE AND WORLD INCOME ON EXPORTS OF ESPÍRITO SANTO STATE
title_fullStr INFLUENCE OF EXCHANGE RATE AND WORLD INCOME ON EXPORTS OF ESPÍRITO SANTO STATE
title_full_unstemmed INFLUENCE OF EXCHANGE RATE AND WORLD INCOME ON EXPORTS OF ESPÍRITO SANTO STATE
title_sort INFLUENCE OF EXCHANGE RATE AND WORLD INCOME ON EXPORTS OF ESPÍRITO SANTO STATE
author Monte, Edson Zambon
author_facet Monte, Edson Zambon
author_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Monte, Edson Zambon
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Exportações
VAR/VECM
Espírito Santo.
C32
F11
F17.
Exports
VAR/VECM
Espírito Santo State.
C32
F11
F17.
topic Exportações
VAR/VECM
Espírito Santo.
C32
F11
F17.
Exports
VAR/VECM
Espírito Santo State.
C32
F11
F17.
description The objective of this paper was to estimate the impacts of shocks on exchange rate and world income, in the exports of Espírito Santo State, using the methodology VAR/VECM. The results showed that: a) variables are cointegrated and world income affected significantly the exports in the long-term, while the exchange rate had a negative sign and was not significant; b) estimates of short-term cointegrating vector revealed that for the variable exports of short-term imbalances are corrected quickly. It doesn't happen for variables exchange rate and world income; c) the impulse-response functions show that a shock in the exchange rate has a negative impact on exports in almost all periods after the shock (contrary to economic theory) and world income affects positively exports; and, d) the decomposition analysis of variance showed that the world income is relatively more important that the exchange rate in explaining the forecast error variance of exports.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-03-31
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/31840
10.22456/2176-5456.31840
url https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/31840
identifier_str_mv 10.22456/2176-5456.31840
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/31840/33373
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv UFRGS
publisher.none.fl_str_mv UFRGS
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Análise Econômica; Vol. 33 No. 63 (2015): março de 2015
Análise Econômica; v. 33 n. 63 (2015): março de 2015
2176-5456
0102-9924
reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)
instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
instacron:UFRGS
instname_str Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
instacron_str UFRGS
institution UFRGS
reponame_str Análise Econômica (Online)
collection Análise Econômica (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||rae@ufrgs.br
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