TESTING THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE INTERTEMPORAL CURRENT ACCOUNT MODEL FOR BRAZIL: 1947- 2010

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Carrasco-Gutierrez, Carlos Enrique
Data de Publicação: 2013
Outros Autores: Oliveira, Lucio Hellery Holanda
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Análise Econômica (Online)
Texto Completo: https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/25461
Resumo: According to the intertemporal approach, one of the most important ways to describe the dynamics of international capital is the current account. This paper applies to Brazilian data econometric technique developed by Campbell (1987) and Campbell and Shiller (1987) to test the intertemporal current account model for the period 1947 to 2010. It compares the results obtained in this work with others presented to the Brazilian economy in order to establish the robustness of the model for different periods. The results confirm some stylized facts presented in the literature and show that not all basic propositions testable of the intertemporal current account model were confirmed. However, a less formal analysis suggests a high degree of capital mobility and significant inflows of speculative capital, because the optimal series of the current account was less volatile than the observed series in the period. 
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spelling TESTING THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE INTERTEMPORAL CURRENT ACCOUNT MODEL FOR BRAZIL: 1947- 2010TESTANDO AS IMPLICAÇÕES DO MODELO INTERTEMPORAL DA CONTA-CORRENTE PARA O BRASIL: 1947-2010Current accountIntertemporal modelCapital mobilityVARE27F32F41Conta-correnteModelo intertemporalMobilidade de capitaisVAR.E27F32F41According to the intertemporal approach, one of the most important ways to describe the dynamics of international capital is the current account. This paper applies to Brazilian data econometric technique developed by Campbell (1987) and Campbell and Shiller (1987) to test the intertemporal current account model for the period 1947 to 2010. It compares the results obtained in this work with others presented to the Brazilian economy in order to establish the robustness of the model for different periods. The results confirm some stylized facts presented in the literature and show that not all basic propositions testable of the intertemporal current account model were confirmed. However, a less formal analysis suggests a high degree of capital mobility and significant inflows of speculative capital, because the optimal series of the current account was less volatile than the observed series in the period. De acordo com a abordagem intertemporal, uma das maneiras mais importantes para a descrição da dinâmica internacional de capitais é a conta-corrente. Este artigo aplica para dados brasileiros a técnica econométrica desenvolvida por Campbell (1987) e Campbell e Shiller (1987) para testar o modelo intertemporal da conta-corrente para o período de 1947 até 2010. Comparam-se os resultados obtidos neste trabalho com outros apresentados para a economia brasileira de forma a estabelecer a robustez do modelo para diferentes períodos. Os resultados obtidos corroboram alguns fatos estilizados apresentados na literatura e mostram que nem todas as proposições básicas testáveis do modelo intertemporal da conta-corrente foram confirmadas. Contudo, uma análise menos formal sugere um elevado grau de mobilidade de capitais e fluxos significativos de capitais especulativos, pois a série de conta-corrente ótima mostrou-se menos volátil que a série observada no período.UFRGS2013-04-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/2546110.22456/2176-5456.25461Análise Econômica; Vol. 31 No. 59 (2013): março de 2013Análise Econômica; v. 31 n. 59 (2013): março de 20132176-54560102-9924reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSporhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/25461/24673Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCarrasco-Gutierrez, Carlos EnriqueOliveira, Lucio Hellery Holanda2013-09-13T18:31:09Zoai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/25461Revistahttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomicaPUBhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/oai||rae@ufrgs.br2176-54560102-9924opendoar:2013-09-13T18:31:09Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv TESTING THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE INTERTEMPORAL CURRENT ACCOUNT MODEL FOR BRAZIL: 1947- 2010
TESTANDO AS IMPLICAÇÕES DO MODELO INTERTEMPORAL DA CONTA-CORRENTE PARA O BRASIL: 1947-2010
title TESTING THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE INTERTEMPORAL CURRENT ACCOUNT MODEL FOR BRAZIL: 1947- 2010
spellingShingle TESTING THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE INTERTEMPORAL CURRENT ACCOUNT MODEL FOR BRAZIL: 1947- 2010
Carrasco-Gutierrez, Carlos Enrique
Current account
Intertemporal model
Capital mobility
VAR
E27
F32
F41
Conta-corrente
Modelo intertemporal
Mobilidade de capitais
VAR.
E27
F32
F41
title_short TESTING THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE INTERTEMPORAL CURRENT ACCOUNT MODEL FOR BRAZIL: 1947- 2010
title_full TESTING THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE INTERTEMPORAL CURRENT ACCOUNT MODEL FOR BRAZIL: 1947- 2010
title_fullStr TESTING THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE INTERTEMPORAL CURRENT ACCOUNT MODEL FOR BRAZIL: 1947- 2010
title_full_unstemmed TESTING THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE INTERTEMPORAL CURRENT ACCOUNT MODEL FOR BRAZIL: 1947- 2010
title_sort TESTING THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE INTERTEMPORAL CURRENT ACCOUNT MODEL FOR BRAZIL: 1947- 2010
author Carrasco-Gutierrez, Carlos Enrique
author_facet Carrasco-Gutierrez, Carlos Enrique
Oliveira, Lucio Hellery Holanda
author_role author
author2 Oliveira, Lucio Hellery Holanda
author2_role author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Carrasco-Gutierrez, Carlos Enrique
Oliveira, Lucio Hellery Holanda
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Current account
Intertemporal model
Capital mobility
VAR
E27
F32
F41
Conta-corrente
Modelo intertemporal
Mobilidade de capitais
VAR.
E27
F32
F41
topic Current account
Intertemporal model
Capital mobility
VAR
E27
F32
F41
Conta-corrente
Modelo intertemporal
Mobilidade de capitais
VAR.
E27
F32
F41
description According to the intertemporal approach, one of the most important ways to describe the dynamics of international capital is the current account. This paper applies to Brazilian data econometric technique developed by Campbell (1987) and Campbell and Shiller (1987) to test the intertemporal current account model for the period 1947 to 2010. It compares the results obtained in this work with others presented to the Brazilian economy in order to establish the robustness of the model for different periods. The results confirm some stylized facts presented in the literature and show that not all basic propositions testable of the intertemporal current account model were confirmed. However, a less formal analysis suggests a high degree of capital mobility and significant inflows of speculative capital, because the optimal series of the current account was less volatile than the observed series in the period. 
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013-04-03
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/25461
10.22456/2176-5456.25461
url https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/25461
identifier_str_mv 10.22456/2176-5456.25461
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/25461/24673
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv UFRGS
publisher.none.fl_str_mv UFRGS
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Análise Econômica; Vol. 31 No. 59 (2013): março de 2013
Análise Econômica; v. 31 n. 59 (2013): março de 2013
2176-5456
0102-9924
reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)
instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
instacron:UFRGS
instname_str Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
instacron_str UFRGS
institution UFRGS
reponame_str Análise Econômica (Online)
collection Análise Econômica (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||rae@ufrgs.br
_version_ 1799766267077328896

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