THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Análise Econômica (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/71935 |
Resumo: | This paper aims to investigate the dominance regime (monetary or fiscal)prevailing in Brazilian economy in the period from 2003 to 2015. For this, an autoregressivevectors model (VAR) was used as first approach. The results of this step suggest the existenceof a monetary dominance relationship. However, a structural change in the relationshipbetween variables was verified. And, through multiple regressions of debt equation withthe inclusion of dummy variables, was found that the money supply began to show negativerelationship with public debt, suggesting that the expansion of the monetary base was usedto stabilize public accounts. This results suggests that there is evidence of a fiscal dominanceregime for the recent period. Fact borne out by the Markov-Switching autoregressivevectors model (MS-VAR), where it identified the existence of two clearly defined regimes inthe analyzed period. |
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Análise Econômica (Online) |
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THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMYINTERAÇÃO ENTRE AS POLÍTICAS FISCAL E MONETÁRIA: UMA ANÁLISE SOBRE O REGIME DE DOMINÂNCIA VIGENTE NA ECONOMIA BRASILEIRADominância MonetáriaDominância FiscalPolítica MonetáriaMS-VARC32E52E62Dominância MonetáriaDominância FiscalPolítica MonetáriaMS-VARC32E52E62This paper aims to investigate the dominance regime (monetary or fiscal)prevailing in Brazilian economy in the period from 2003 to 2015. For this, an autoregressivevectors model (VAR) was used as first approach. The results of this step suggest the existenceof a monetary dominance relationship. However, a structural change in the relationshipbetween variables was verified. And, through multiple regressions of debt equation withthe inclusion of dummy variables, was found that the money supply began to show negativerelationship with public debt, suggesting that the expansion of the monetary base was usedto stabilize public accounts. This results suggests that there is evidence of a fiscal dominanceregime for the recent period. Fact borne out by the Markov-Switching autoregressivevectors model (MS-VAR), where it identified the existence of two clearly defined regimes inthe analyzed period.Este artigo tem o propósito de investigar o regime de dominância (monetáriaou fiscal) vigente na economia brasileira no período de 2003 a 2015. Para isso, empregase o modelo de vetores autorregressivos (VAR) como primeiro exercício. Os resultadosobtidos nessa etapa sugerem a existência de uma relação de dominância monetária.Entretanto, verifica-se uma mudança estrutural na relação entre as variáveis no ano de2011. Por meio de regressões múltiplas da equação da dívida com inclusão de variáveisdummies, verifica-se que a oferta monetária passa a apresentar relação negativa coma dívida, sugerindo que a expansão da base monetária foi utilizada para estabilizar ascontas públicas. Esse resultado sugere que há indícios de um regime de dominânciafiscal para o período recente, o que é corroborado pelo método VAR com mudançamarkoviana (MS-VAR), pelo qual é possível identificar a existência de dois regimes bemdefinidos no período analisado.UFRGS2020-04-29info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/7193510.22456/2176-5456.71935Análise Econômica; Vol. 38 No. 75 (2020): Março/2020Análise Econômica; v. 38 n. 75 (2020): Março/20202176-54560102-9924reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSporhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/71935/56885Copyright (c) 2020 Análise Econômicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessNobrega, Wellington Charles LacerdaMaia, Sinézio FernandesBesarria, Cássio da Nóbrega2020-06-29T21:49:14Zoai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/71935Revistahttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomicaPUBhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/oai||rae@ufrgs.br2176-54560102-9924opendoar:2020-06-29T21:49:14Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY INTERAÇÃO ENTRE AS POLÍTICAS FISCAL E MONETÁRIA: UMA ANÁLISE SOBRE O REGIME DE DOMINÂNCIA VIGENTE NA ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA |
title |
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY |
spellingShingle |
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY Nobrega, Wellington Charles Lacerda Dominância Monetária Dominância Fiscal Política Monetária MS-VAR C32 E52 E62 Dominância Monetária Dominância Fiscal Política Monetária MS-VAR C32 E52 E62 |
title_short |
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY |
title_full |
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY |
title_fullStr |
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY |
title_full_unstemmed |
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY |
title_sort |
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY |
author |
Nobrega, Wellington Charles Lacerda |
author_facet |
Nobrega, Wellington Charles Lacerda Maia, Sinézio Fernandes Besarria, Cássio da Nóbrega |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Maia, Sinézio Fernandes Besarria, Cássio da Nóbrega |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Nobrega, Wellington Charles Lacerda Maia, Sinézio Fernandes Besarria, Cássio da Nóbrega |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Dominância Monetária Dominância Fiscal Política Monetária MS-VAR C32 E52 E62 Dominância Monetária Dominância Fiscal Política Monetária MS-VAR C32 E52 E62 |
topic |
Dominância Monetária Dominância Fiscal Política Monetária MS-VAR C32 E52 E62 Dominância Monetária Dominância Fiscal Política Monetária MS-VAR C32 E52 E62 |
description |
This paper aims to investigate the dominance regime (monetary or fiscal)prevailing in Brazilian economy in the period from 2003 to 2015. For this, an autoregressivevectors model (VAR) was used as first approach. The results of this step suggest the existenceof a monetary dominance relationship. However, a structural change in the relationshipbetween variables was verified. And, through multiple regressions of debt equation withthe inclusion of dummy variables, was found that the money supply began to show negativerelationship with public debt, suggesting that the expansion of the monetary base was usedto stabilize public accounts. This results suggests that there is evidence of a fiscal dominanceregime for the recent period. Fact borne out by the Markov-Switching autoregressivevectors model (MS-VAR), where it identified the existence of two clearly defined regimes inthe analyzed period. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-04-29 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/71935 10.22456/2176-5456.71935 |
url |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/71935 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.22456/2176-5456.71935 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/71935/56885 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2020 Análise Econômica info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2020 Análise Econômica |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
UFRGS |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
UFRGS |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Análise Econômica; Vol. 38 No. 75 (2020): Março/2020 Análise Econômica; v. 38 n. 75 (2020): Março/2020 2176-5456 0102-9924 reponame:Análise Econômica (Online) instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) instacron:UFRGS |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
instacron_str |
UFRGS |
institution |
UFRGS |
reponame_str |
Análise Econômica (Online) |
collection |
Análise Econômica (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||rae@ufrgs.br |
_version_ |
1799766268039921664 |