THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY

Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor(a) principal: Nobrega, Wellington Charles Lacerda
Data de Publicação: 2020
Outros Autores: Maia, Sinézio Fernandes, Besarria, Cássio da Nóbrega
Tipo de documento: Artigo
Idioma: por
Título da fonte: Análise Econômica (Online)
Texto Completo: https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/71935
Resumo: This paper aims to investigate the dominance regime (monetary or fiscal)prevailing in Brazilian economy in the period from 2003 to 2015. For this, an autoregressivevectors model (VAR) was used as first approach. The results of this step suggest the existenceof a monetary dominance relationship. However, a structural change in the relationshipbetween variables was verified. And, through multiple regressions of debt equation withthe inclusion of dummy variables, was found that the money supply began to show negativerelationship with public debt, suggesting that the expansion of the monetary base was usedto stabilize public accounts. This results suggests that there is evidence of a fiscal dominanceregime for the recent period. Fact borne out by the Markov-Switching autoregressivevectors model (MS-VAR), where it identified the existence of two clearly defined regimes inthe analyzed period.
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spelling THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMYINTERAÇÃO ENTRE AS POLÍTICAS FISCAL E MONETÁRIA: UMA ANÁLISE SOBRE O REGIME DE DOMINÂNCIA VIGENTE NA ECONOMIA BRASILEIRADominância MonetáriaDominância FiscalPolítica MonetáriaMS-VARC32E52E62Dominância MonetáriaDominância FiscalPolítica MonetáriaMS-VARC32E52E62This paper aims to investigate the dominance regime (monetary or fiscal)prevailing in Brazilian economy in the period from 2003 to 2015. For this, an autoregressivevectors model (VAR) was used as first approach. The results of this step suggest the existenceof a monetary dominance relationship. However, a structural change in the relationshipbetween variables was verified. And, through multiple regressions of debt equation withthe inclusion of dummy variables, was found that the money supply began to show negativerelationship with public debt, suggesting that the expansion of the monetary base was usedto stabilize public accounts. This results suggests that there is evidence of a fiscal dominanceregime for the recent period. Fact borne out by the Markov-Switching autoregressivevectors model (MS-VAR), where it identified the existence of two clearly defined regimes inthe analyzed period.Este artigo tem o propósito de investigar o regime de dominância (monetáriaou fiscal) vigente na economia brasileira no período de 2003 a 2015. Para isso, empregase o modelo de vetores autorregressivos (VAR) como primeiro exercício. Os resultadosobtidos nessa etapa sugerem a existência de uma relação de dominância monetária.Entretanto, verifica-se uma mudança estrutural na relação entre as variáveis no ano de2011. Por meio de regressões múltiplas da equação da dívida com inclusão de variáveisdummies, verifica-se que a oferta monetária passa a apresentar relação negativa coma dívida, sugerindo que a expansão da base monetária foi utilizada para estabilizar ascontas públicas. Esse resultado sugere que há indícios de um regime de dominânciafiscal para o período recente, o que é corroborado pelo método VAR com mudançamarkoviana (MS-VAR), pelo qual é possível identificar a existência de dois regimes bemdefinidos no período analisado.UFRGS2020-04-29info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/7193510.22456/2176-5456.71935Análise Econômica; Vol. 38 No. 75 (2020): Março/2020Análise Econômica; v. 38 n. 75 (2020): Março/20202176-54560102-9924reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSporhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/71935/56885Copyright (c) 2020 Análise Econômicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessNobrega, Wellington Charles LacerdaMaia, Sinézio FernandesBesarria, Cássio da Nóbrega2020-06-29T21:49:14Zoai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/71935Revistahttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomicaPUBhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/oai||rae@ufrgs.br2176-54560102-9924opendoar:2020-06-29T21:49:14Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY
INTERAÇÃO ENTRE AS POLÍTICAS FISCAL E MONETÁRIA: UMA ANÁLISE SOBRE O REGIME DE DOMINÂNCIA VIGENTE NA ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA
title THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY
spellingShingle THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY
Nobrega, Wellington Charles Lacerda
Dominância Monetária
Dominância Fiscal
Política Monetária
MS-VAR
C32
E52
E62
Dominância Monetária
Dominância Fiscal
Política Monetária
MS-VAR
C32
E52
E62
title_short THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY
title_full THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY
title_fullStr THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY
title_full_unstemmed THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY
title_sort THE INTERACTION BETWEEN FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT DOMINANCE REGIME IN THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY
author Nobrega, Wellington Charles Lacerda
author_facet Nobrega, Wellington Charles Lacerda
Maia, Sinézio Fernandes
Besarria, Cássio da Nóbrega
author_role author
author2 Maia, Sinézio Fernandes
Besarria, Cássio da Nóbrega
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv Nobrega, Wellington Charles Lacerda
Maia, Sinézio Fernandes
Besarria, Cássio da Nóbrega
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv Dominância Monetária
Dominância Fiscal
Política Monetária
MS-VAR
C32
E52
E62
Dominância Monetária
Dominância Fiscal
Política Monetária
MS-VAR
C32
E52
E62
topic Dominância Monetária
Dominância Fiscal
Política Monetária
MS-VAR
C32
E52
E62
Dominância Monetária
Dominância Fiscal
Política Monetária
MS-VAR
C32
E52
E62
description This paper aims to investigate the dominance regime (monetary or fiscal)prevailing in Brazilian economy in the period from 2003 to 2015. For this, an autoregressivevectors model (VAR) was used as first approach. The results of this step suggest the existenceof a monetary dominance relationship. However, a structural change in the relationshipbetween variables was verified. And, through multiple regressions of debt equation withthe inclusion of dummy variables, was found that the money supply began to show negativerelationship with public debt, suggesting that the expansion of the monetary base was usedto stabilize public accounts. This results suggests that there is evidence of a fiscal dominanceregime for the recent period. Fact borne out by the Markov-Switching autoregressivevectors model (MS-VAR), where it identified the existence of two clearly defined regimes inthe analyzed period.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-04-29
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/71935
10.22456/2176-5456.71935
url https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/71935
identifier_str_mv 10.22456/2176-5456.71935
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv por
language por
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/71935/56885
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2020 Análise Econômica
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2020 Análise Econômica
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv UFRGS
publisher.none.fl_str_mv UFRGS
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Análise Econômica; Vol. 38 No. 75 (2020): Março/2020
Análise Econômica; v. 38 n. 75 (2020): Março/2020
2176-5456
0102-9924
reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)
instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
instacron:UFRGS
instname_str Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
instacron_str UFRGS
institution UFRGS
reponame_str Análise Econômica (Online)
collection Análise Econômica (Online)
repository.name.fl_str_mv Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv ||rae@ufrgs.br
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