ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIME: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS
Autor(a) principal: | |
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Data de Publicação: | 2020 |
Outros Autores: | |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Análise Econômica (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/61135 |
Resumo: | The main goal of this work is to investigate the relevance of exchange rateregimes for long-run economic growth using a sample of 82 countries for the period of1970 to 2009 and also the role of different types of financial crises. The results of System-GMM estimation indicate that countries with flexible and intermediate exchangerate regimes have higher growth rates when compared to those with peg / fixed exchangerate regimes for the entire period (1970 a 2009) but these results are not robustfor the 1990 to 2009 period. This result seems to be associated to the argument that flexible and intermediate exchange rate regimes are less likely to be associated to exchange rate appreciation which has a negative impact on the export sector. For the post 1970 period, economic growth performance relies also on the behavior of inflation, years of education (proxy for human capital), terms of trade and the investment rate. For the post 1990 period the variable government expenditure as percentage of GDP (proxy for fiscal discipline) is statistically significant with a negative estimated coefficient indicating that higher (lower) fiscal discipline is associated to higher (lower) growth rates. Regarding the different types of crises, they have not revealed statistical significance for long run growth, with the exception of sudden stop crisis for the post 1990 period. |
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ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIME: PANEL DATA ANALYSISCRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO E REGIMES CAMBIAIS: ANÁLISE DE PAINELEconomic growthExchange rate regimePanel data analysisC33F31F43Crescimento EconômicoRegimes CambiaisAnálise de Dados em PainelC33F31F43The main goal of this work is to investigate the relevance of exchange rateregimes for long-run economic growth using a sample of 82 countries for the period of1970 to 2009 and also the role of different types of financial crises. The results of System-GMM estimation indicate that countries with flexible and intermediate exchangerate regimes have higher growth rates when compared to those with peg / fixed exchangerate regimes for the entire period (1970 a 2009) but these results are not robustfor the 1990 to 2009 period. This result seems to be associated to the argument that flexible and intermediate exchange rate regimes are less likely to be associated to exchange rate appreciation which has a negative impact on the export sector. For the post 1970 period, economic growth performance relies also on the behavior of inflation, years of education (proxy for human capital), terms of trade and the investment rate. For the post 1990 period the variable government expenditure as percentage of GDP (proxy for fiscal discipline) is statistically significant with a negative estimated coefficient indicating that higher (lower) fiscal discipline is associated to higher (lower) growth rates. Regarding the different types of crises, they have not revealed statistical significance for long run growth, with the exception of sudden stop crisis for the post 1990 period.O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar a importância dos regimescambiais para o crescimento econômico utilizando uma amostra de 82 países, noperíodo de 1970 a 2009, e também avaliar o papel dos diversos tipos de crisesfinanceiras. Os resultados das estimações System GMM indicam que países comregimes de câmbio flexível e intermediários tiveram maiores taxas de crescimentoem comparação com os que adotaram regimes de câmbio rígido/fixo no períodototal (1970 a 2009), porém, tal resultado não é robusto para o período de 1990 a2009. Tal resultado deve estar associado ao fato de que regimes de câmbio flexívele intermediário são menos propensos a estar associados a significativas apreciaçõescambiais que têm impacto negativo sobre o setor exportador. Para o períodopós-1970, o crescimento econômico depende de variáveis como taxa de inflação,anos de educação (proxy para capital humano), termos de troca e taxa de investimento.Já no período pós-1990, a variável gastos do governo como percentualdo PIB (proxy para disciplina fiscal) tem significância estatística e sinal negativo, indicandoque uma maior (menor) disciplina fiscal está associada a maiores (menores)taxas de crescimento econômico. Quanto às diversas crises, estas não tiveramsignificância estatística para o crescimento, com exceção das crises de reversãobrusca nos fluxos de capitais no período pós-1990.UFRGS2020-04-29info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/6113510.22456/2176-5456.61135Análise Econômica; Vol. 38 No. 75 (2020): Março/2020Análise Econômica; v. 38 n. 75 (2020): Março/20202176-54560102-9924reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSporhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/61135/56894Copyright (c) 2020 Análise Econômicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessCardoso, Carlos de AlmeidaVieira, Flávio Vilela2020-06-29T21:49:15Zoai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/61135Revistahttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomicaPUBhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/oai||rae@ufrgs.br2176-54560102-9924opendoar:2020-06-29T21:49:15Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIME: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO E REGIMES CAMBIAIS: ANÁLISE DE PAINEL |
title |
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIME: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS |
spellingShingle |
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIME: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS Cardoso, Carlos de Almeida Economic growth Exchange rate regime Panel data analysis C33 F31 F43 Crescimento Econômico Regimes Cambiais Análise de Dados em Painel C33 F31 F43 |
title_short |
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIME: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS |
title_full |
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIME: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS |
title_fullStr |
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIME: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS |
title_full_unstemmed |
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIME: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS |
title_sort |
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIME: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS |
author |
Cardoso, Carlos de Almeida |
author_facet |
Cardoso, Carlos de Almeida Vieira, Flávio Vilela |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Vieira, Flávio Vilela |
author2_role |
author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Cardoso, Carlos de Almeida Vieira, Flávio Vilela |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Economic growth Exchange rate regime Panel data analysis C33 F31 F43 Crescimento Econômico Regimes Cambiais Análise de Dados em Painel C33 F31 F43 |
topic |
Economic growth Exchange rate regime Panel data analysis C33 F31 F43 Crescimento Econômico Regimes Cambiais Análise de Dados em Painel C33 F31 F43 |
description |
The main goal of this work is to investigate the relevance of exchange rateregimes for long-run economic growth using a sample of 82 countries for the period of1970 to 2009 and also the role of different types of financial crises. The results of System-GMM estimation indicate that countries with flexible and intermediate exchangerate regimes have higher growth rates when compared to those with peg / fixed exchangerate regimes for the entire period (1970 a 2009) but these results are not robustfor the 1990 to 2009 period. This result seems to be associated to the argument that flexible and intermediate exchange rate regimes are less likely to be associated to exchange rate appreciation which has a negative impact on the export sector. For the post 1970 period, economic growth performance relies also on the behavior of inflation, years of education (proxy for human capital), terms of trade and the investment rate. For the post 1990 period the variable government expenditure as percentage of GDP (proxy for fiscal discipline) is statistically significant with a negative estimated coefficient indicating that higher (lower) fiscal discipline is associated to higher (lower) growth rates. Regarding the different types of crises, they have not revealed statistical significance for long run growth, with the exception of sudden stop crisis for the post 1990 period. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-04-29 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/61135 10.22456/2176-5456.61135 |
url |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/61135 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.22456/2176-5456.61135 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/61135/56894 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2020 Análise Econômica info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2020 Análise Econômica |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
UFRGS |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
UFRGS |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Análise Econômica; Vol. 38 No. 75 (2020): Março/2020 Análise Econômica; v. 38 n. 75 (2020): Março/2020 2176-5456 0102-9924 reponame:Análise Econômica (Online) instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) instacron:UFRGS |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
instacron_str |
UFRGS |
institution |
UFRGS |
reponame_str |
Análise Econômica (Online) |
collection |
Análise Econômica (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||rae@ufrgs.br |
_version_ |
1799766267948695552 |