TTHE 2010 DILMA´S ELECTION AND ITS DETERMINANTS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE BOLSA FAMÍLIA PROGRAM
Autor(a) principal: | |
---|---|
Data de Publicação: | 2015 |
Outros Autores: | , , |
Tipo de documento: | Artigo |
Idioma: | por |
Título da fonte: | Análise Econômica (Online) |
Texto Completo: | https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/40076 |
Resumo: | This paper presents empirical evidence that the Bolsa Família cash transfer program played a major role in the election of Dilma Rousseff, the Workers’ Party candidate, in 2010 presidential election. Our analysis indicates that this effect was more relevant than the impact of the favorable economic scene during the two Lula’s mandates. Employing a sample of 5.564 Brazilian municipalities, the results obtained from Beta Regression models point out that this statement holds even when we take into account other economic, social and political variables, as well as unobservable regional characteristics. The empirical results also point to a greater vote share to Dilma in the municipalities that show lower levels of schooling, giving support to the literature that proposes that less educated people tend to be more dependent on the Government and, therefore, they tend to keep the status quo unchanged. Different specifications confirm the results obtained. |
id |
UFRGS-24_e5fb79755ba808574a3004109be17007 |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/40076 |
network_acronym_str |
UFRGS-24 |
network_name_str |
Análise Econômica (Online) |
repository_id_str |
|
spelling |
TTHE 2010 DILMA´S ELECTION AND ITS DETERMINANTS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE BOLSA FAMÍLIA PROGRAMA ELEIÇÃO DE DILMA EM 2010 E SEUS DETERMINANTES: EVIDÊNCIAS EMPÍRICAS DO PROGRAMA BOLSA FAMÍLIAPresidential electionBolsa famíliaBeta regressionH53I38J18Eleições presidenciaisBolsa famíliaRegressão betaH53I38J18This paper presents empirical evidence that the Bolsa Família cash transfer program played a major role in the election of Dilma Rousseff, the Workers’ Party candidate, in 2010 presidential election. Our analysis indicates that this effect was more relevant than the impact of the favorable economic scene during the two Lula’s mandates. Employing a sample of 5.564 Brazilian municipalities, the results obtained from Beta Regression models point out that this statement holds even when we take into account other economic, social and political variables, as well as unobservable regional characteristics. The empirical results also point to a greater vote share to Dilma in the municipalities that show lower levels of schooling, giving support to the literature that proposes that less educated people tend to be more dependent on the Government and, therefore, they tend to keep the status quo unchanged. Different specifications confirm the results obtained.O presente artigo apresenta evidências empíricas de que o Programa Bolsa Família teve um papel preponderante na eleição da candidata do Partido dos Trabalhadores, Dilma Rousseff, em 2010, e que esse efeito foi superior ao do desempenho econômico favorável nos dois mandatos do governo Lula. Utilizando dados agregados por município, os resultados, sob o modelo de regressão beta, mostram que esse cenário se mantém mesmo quando se leva em conta outras variáveis de cunho econômico, social e político e as especificidades regionais não observáveis. As estimativas obtidas apontam também para uma votação mais expressiva em Dilma nos municípios com menor nível de escolaridade, dando suporte à hipótese presente na literatura de que essas populações tendem a ser mais dependentes do Estado e, portanto, a primar pela manutenção do poder vigente. Os resultados obtidos são robustos a diferentes especificações.UFRGS2015-09-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/4007610.22456/2176-5456.40076Análise Econômica; Vol. 33 No. 64 (2015): setembro de 2015Análise Econômica; v. 33 n. 64 (2015): setembro de 20152176-54560102-9924reponame:Análise Econômica (Online)instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)instacron:UFRGSporhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/40076/34906Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômicainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessPereira, Ana Elisa GonçalvesShikida, CláudioRibeiro, Felipe GarciaNakabashi, Luciano2015-09-01T23:17:54Zoai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/40076Revistahttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomicaPUBhttps://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/oai||rae@ufrgs.br2176-54560102-9924opendoar:2015-09-01T23:17:54Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS)false |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
TTHE 2010 DILMA´S ELECTION AND ITS DETERMINANTS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE BOLSA FAMÍLIA PROGRAM A ELEIÇÃO DE DILMA EM 2010 E SEUS DETERMINANTES: EVIDÊNCIAS EMPÍRICAS DO PROGRAMA BOLSA FAMÍLIA |
title |
TTHE 2010 DILMA´S ELECTION AND ITS DETERMINANTS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE BOLSA FAMÍLIA PROGRAM |
spellingShingle |
TTHE 2010 DILMA´S ELECTION AND ITS DETERMINANTS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE BOLSA FAMÍLIA PROGRAM Pereira, Ana Elisa Gonçalves Presidential election Bolsa família Beta regression H53 I38 J18 Eleições presidenciais Bolsa família Regressão beta H53 I38 J18 |
title_short |
TTHE 2010 DILMA´S ELECTION AND ITS DETERMINANTS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE BOLSA FAMÍLIA PROGRAM |
title_full |
TTHE 2010 DILMA´S ELECTION AND ITS DETERMINANTS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE BOLSA FAMÍLIA PROGRAM |
title_fullStr |
TTHE 2010 DILMA´S ELECTION AND ITS DETERMINANTS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE BOLSA FAMÍLIA PROGRAM |
title_full_unstemmed |
TTHE 2010 DILMA´S ELECTION AND ITS DETERMINANTS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE BOLSA FAMÍLIA PROGRAM |
title_sort |
TTHE 2010 DILMA´S ELECTION AND ITS DETERMINANTS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE BOLSA FAMÍLIA PROGRAM |
author |
Pereira, Ana Elisa Gonçalves |
author_facet |
Pereira, Ana Elisa Gonçalves Shikida, Cláudio Ribeiro, Felipe Garcia Nakabashi, Luciano |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Shikida, Cláudio Ribeiro, Felipe Garcia Nakabashi, Luciano |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.contributor.author.fl_str_mv |
Pereira, Ana Elisa Gonçalves Shikida, Cláudio Ribeiro, Felipe Garcia Nakabashi, Luciano |
dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Presidential election Bolsa família Beta regression H53 I38 J18 Eleições presidenciais Bolsa família Regressão beta H53 I38 J18 |
topic |
Presidential election Bolsa família Beta regression H53 I38 J18 Eleições presidenciais Bolsa família Regressão beta H53 I38 J18 |
description |
This paper presents empirical evidence that the Bolsa Família cash transfer program played a major role in the election of Dilma Rousseff, the Workers’ Party candidate, in 2010 presidential election. Our analysis indicates that this effect was more relevant than the impact of the favorable economic scene during the two Lula’s mandates. Employing a sample of 5.564 Brazilian municipalities, the results obtained from Beta Regression models point out that this statement holds even when we take into account other economic, social and political variables, as well as unobservable regional characteristics. The empirical results also point to a greater vote share to Dilma in the municipalities that show lower levels of schooling, giving support to the literature that proposes that less educated people tend to be more dependent on the Government and, therefore, they tend to keep the status quo unchanged. Different specifications confirm the results obtained. |
publishDate |
2015 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2015-09-01 |
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/40076 10.22456/2176-5456.40076 |
url |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/40076 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.22456/2176-5456.40076 |
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
por |
language |
por |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/40076/34906 |
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2019 Análise Econômica |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
UFRGS |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
UFRGS |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Análise Econômica; Vol. 33 No. 64 (2015): setembro de 2015 Análise Econômica; v. 33 n. 64 (2015): setembro de 2015 2176-5456 0102-9924 reponame:Análise Econômica (Online) instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) instacron:UFRGS |
instname_str |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
instacron_str |
UFRGS |
institution |
UFRGS |
reponame_str |
Análise Econômica (Online) |
collection |
Análise Econômica (Online) |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Análise Econômica (Online) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
||rae@ufrgs.br |
_version_ |
1799766267438039040 |